Creating a Sports Betting Model 101 - Intro to Linear Regression (The simplest model ever created!)

If you have watched my previous videos, you will have seen me say the only way you stand a chance at sports betting is to have a mathematical model. The problem is most people have no idea what exactly a model is, or where to start. The purpose of this video is to illustrate a sports betting model at the very simplest level possible. This video is intentionally low level to educate the absolute novice about the basics of building a sports betting model using a simple linear regression approach in Microsoft Excel.

The model demoed in this video is very simple and therefore will not win you money in the long run. The purpose of the model is to illustrate the concepts and principles behind a linear regression model. The idea is to take this video and learn the basics and then advance your sports betting analytical skills to more complex methods.

This channel is a tout free safe space that has zero tolerance for touting or speaking positively about touts.

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[Burps___]

Wow...this is a lot more work than just saying “ The Jets got rocked last weekend, so there’s.no way they’re winning this Sunday.” 😂 🏈 Thank you for your videos.

[GoldGunsandGolf]

One thing I've learned about doing stats is how important strength of schedule is... stats are useless unless you know how hard or easy it was for a team to obtain those stats.

[zyzyvlad]

This works out, If you wanna bet right you ll need to have a high level of statistics and econometric knowledge

[amyrg]

Is there a fast way you got the past year's schedule into excel? or did you hand input?

[bbsara]

They should teach horse gambling and sports betting in schools. young people will learn all their stats and math without even realizing it because they are having fun gambling on horses

[alivstyson]

confused this guys implies he can turn a profit then there are other video where he states he could NOT do it

[fizzfox]

i came for betting and stayed for excel

[chikomufc]

Thanks for the video and especially the website!! Everything I need to start building some models

[tommyproductions]

Great video but that’s not at all what the R^2 value means. It’s a measure of how close a line is, not quite to do with any percentage of datapoints “explained” by the line.

[briancox]

Love the content - quick question, where can I pull all results for college bball games this season? Sports-reference doesnt seem to have that. Thanks in advance!

[ease]

This year they are using linear equations for nba betting. It’s surprising not a lot of people are aware.

[jc]

Thank you ive subscribed and will be watching some more videos thanks again

[Garycarlyle]

Do you have a sheet with the table headings definitions you can share, please?. I want to use this for a college project in the UK but I'm English and I don't understand those references I get the math and Excel however.

[kylecool]

Could you make a follow up video just explaining how to apply our model week to week in the nfl for example?

[ianharkins]

How would something that is not a team specific metric, such as weather, be input into something like this?

[mariellezarraga]

Hi William, I´m looking at your video but don´t understand in minute 3 where did your get away and home from? is not on the website you´re showing. Could you help me please?

[ethanschwab]

How would you enter a statistic like defensive yards allowed, where a lower number is better than a higher number? Do I make the numbers all negative?

[Kayhan]

Great video I just have a question. I used a few stats for this and when I did the regression on them individually they all had very low P values, but when I did them all together they got very large. How do I interpret that?

[Joe-cycl]

Hey great content I appreciate your help and time. One thing maybe you could help me with. I get the ASRS perfectly fine, but the HSRS I am getting N/A for a few of the teams. When I go to my schedule I copy that home teams name and replace it with the same exact name in my SRS tab and now the HSRS is coming up, but now the ASRS is getting N/A for that team. I dont get it because it's spelled the exact same for the SRS tab, Home column and Away column. Tried troubleshooting myself, but can not find anything. Thanks!

[ryanclarke]

How did you get pro football reference to get you scores for Home and Away, for me it only has score for winning team vs losing team?