Watch me build a form based stat model from start to finish #sportsbetting #nhl

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Disclosure - this model has not been tested long term for profit. Main purpose of the video was to show how a model is built and how to convert stats into a line. However, this model should produce a better line when compared to the sportsbook line.

mgcovers
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Form is very important in horse racing and I will usually look at a horses last 5 races to see if there are signs of improvement or dropping off.

danielschwartz
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Sorry you answered my question with multiple sports except basketball is your spread line? Football, hockey, and MLB use ML?

louismagee
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Can this form model work for all sports?

louismagee
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Fun video. Belated response to video. For example, Blues are 4-1 in last 5, Kings 4-1 in last 5, St. Louis are +200, Los Angeles-240. If 4-1 gives -135= 57%, does that give Blues a good play?

nathantoth
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Do you bet on heavy favorites at all? Like if they are playing well and the other team isn't. That can be an extra +100 to your bankroll. Even though you pay out more to make even money. It can help if you have some other losses. Just wondering what your opinion is on it?

CSCloud
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so if you have 3 to bet on that day how do you decide how much to bet on each one?

jordanbishop
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This model works for MLB too, MG? Also, will we have to update "our line" regularly because the winning percentages for both favors and dogs will change as the season goes on, right? Thanks.

trivu
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Keep in mind NBA is 70/30 so the percentages and moneylines would change. Look at the sport trends for each.

louismagee