China Faces Deflation as Economy Stutters || Peter Zeihan

Given the recent conflict in the Middle East, I'm worried that an oil crisis could be brewing. The main players that might kick off the (next) Gulf War are Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

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#china #economy #deflation

[myfirstseven]

I’ve worked for two Chinese owned companies in my career. Their priorities are preserving “face” and trading loyalty while also making the most retarded decisions possible. The instances of blatant corruption are encountered routinely, super abusive, and literal torture at times. They operate like a massive glob of several tiny gangs. I don’t know how this doesn’t destroy itself eventually. It makes me so sad for the decent people who still live there

[NelleHummell]

It looks like deflation is becoming a serious issue over there. That could have huge global implications, especially for investors.

[annekepannekoek]

People have the time to go on long marches together! ❤

[nickhanlon]

The trouble with having total power is that you have no one else to blame when things go bad.

[Dr_DeeDee]

This is a textbook example of a liquidity trap. Any monetary stimulus will simply be saved rather than spent due to deflation. In monetary policy circles it's analogized to pushing on a string, and it's very difficult to get out of this trap once you're in it, as Japan discovered in the 1990s.

[steves]

Nice job! Appreciate the YT posts. Thank You!

[Alex_Plante]

The problem is 40 years ago China decided to emulate Taiwan's export-oriented industrialization program, but forgot that they have 50 times the population of Taiwan. The world cannot absorb all those Chinese products.

[ronm]

Yes, I like these videos free because I haven't heard one thing in this video that I haven't heard 10 times already

[stevec]

There's another issue with China issuing sovereign debt. Doing so sucks money out of the private sector, transferring it to the government sector. This *reduces* domestic consumption, which is part of its core economic problem.

[lobsangdorje]

For those who are new to Peter, he has been saying a version of this for about a decade. It does not mean he is not entirely correct, but this is more like experiencing a car crash in slow motion, rather than expecting it to happen before the year or decade is finished.

[greghmarx]

I like your videos, but I am never going to join Patreon to watch them.

[dalehill]

Vey interesting thoughts Mr Zeihan, thank you.👏🏻

[EarnestWilliamsGeofferic]

I'm disappointed at the lack of New Orleans hiking update.

[artfx]

It's an interesting and sad thing as humans we have in our psychology: when we are doing bad internally, in many cases we become agressive externally. This applies to bullies and dictatorships as well. 😶

[pbbananas]

Thank you for the content Peter! Always thought provoking.

[Cyril_Hustle]

Man have being predicting collapse since Eternity 😂😂

[Calbertone]

Thank you for always posting great material

[waltershearls]

It's difficult to have economic dialogue with typical Pro-China folks. Often, it's usually deflection to whatever political talking heads say. They bring up US national deficit often, but 88% of it is internal from government funded programs. They will talk about US printing money, but China's M2 is vastly more than the next countries and issuing 50 year bonds. However, if we applied any number of Chinese economic metrics to any other country, we would be talking about a financial crisis. We will start seeing a bunch of accounts talking about how they "lived" in China in a near to mask unflattering data from China.

[jarredschenke]

FWIW...my company had an event in Savannah today with a panel of shipping and warehouse owners. 60% of savannah warehouse leasing activity was done by Chinese 3PLs. One panelist speculated that China may be trying to unload goods into America A) before tariffs hit and B) because domestic consumption has cratered. Jives with your economic outlook for the country.

[BMWHP]

SO, between a hard rock and a huge rock