The Clutch GOAT...(it's not who you think).

Who is the most clutch shooter of all time?

To understand this, we need to first define what clutch is…

Clutch is a vague term - so I worked with Mike Beuoy to build out multiple charts, and variations of “clutch”.

Keep in mind, advanced stats didn’t start in the NBA until 1996, so it’s difficult to go further back than this…

The NBA defines clutch as a five-point game with five minutes left in the game. There is nothing inherently wrong with the NBA's definition of clutch performance. There's something to be said for easily applicable rules that are simple to explain. However, a shot taken in the final minute when your team is up by five doesn't feel quite as "clutch" as a three-pointer in the final 10 seconds with your team trailing by two. Fortunately, we can use win probability to create a more nuanced version of the clutch, and one that better aligns with what one would expect a clutch situation to be.

Definition of “Clutch ^2”(aka “clutch squared” ) - a win probability added (WPA) model that weights the importance of shots based on time and score.

At its core, a clutch shot is one in which the outcome of the shot matters; when there is a significant difference between a make and a miss. How do we quantify that difference? For every shot taken, we can calculate the win probability for both a make or a miss. The win probability difference between the two potential outcomes, the "swing" factor, tells you how important the shot is. A shot as time expires when trailing by one will leave the team with a win probability of 100% if successful, and 0% if unsuccessful - a maximum swing of 100%.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, we have garbage time. If a team is up by 20 with 2 minutes to go (or down by 20 for that matter), a shot will not move the win probability needle, regardless of the shot's outcome. Thus, these shots do not alter a player's “Clutch Squared”.

I will look to add further detail to this description as time goes on...hope you enjoy!

00:00 Defining Clutch
02:15 The GOAT...?
05:55 Anti-Clutch
06:20 Further Into the Clutch...
12:15 Mapping "All-Around Clutch"
15:10 What Can We Learn...?

[letecatina]

Was not expecting a Star Wars-Lego themed basketball video. I was pleasantly surprised.

[partysnax]

This is some of the best basketball talk I’ve come across recently. This channel is gonna blow up so hard.

[plinkcatt]

Is it weird that I could tell that was Anthony Davis just based off the white silhouette in the thumbnail

[mikecole]

This is LITERALLY one of the best basketball analysis videos I've ever seen

[MrKT]

Too bad we don't have numbers before 96. You basically miss prime MJ, Bird, half of Reggie Millers career, and Jerry West.

[applebutter]

Bron used to get torched by the media for passing the ball late in games. I always thought that was silly. Make the right play. That's why guys like cp3, jokic and coming soon...SGA are great clutch players. They're going to try to make the right high percentage play and take whatever the defense gives them.

[spencerevans]

Jokic and Murray both top ten in adjusted playoff added playoff WPA 👀

[aidanmilb]

Didn’t expect to tear up at the end of a clutch debate video but here we are. Incredible videography, editing, and storytelling throughout this whole video. Really appreciate you guys pushing forward the creativity on YouTube

[thevoicestoldmetoagain]

This format is really something special. The lego reenactments, the star wars references, the speech delivery and the backround music. Wow.

[danijelvu]

Can we all just appreciate the beauty of this video. From statistics and technical stuff all the way to narration, animations and overall creativity.

[shepardice]

Your production quality is almost comically good. What a breath of fresh air your content is for basketball youtube and youtube in general

[eriktorkelson]

Confirmation bias likely fogs our perception of 'clutch' players too. We're more likely to remember and emphasize the great last second makes than misses causing us to over-value a player's ability in the clutch.

[denizakin]

I find it interesting that both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic were very high on the WPA added list. Their 2 man game will be a problem for years to come.

[janjossibinovski]

This has to be one of the best made and most thought through videos that I've ever seen. Amazing work!

[kwamebrown]

One of the best videos I’ve seen, 200k is a crime

[dontpanicxx]

As a lifelong Laker fan and growing up with Kobe as a sports hero, this very much aligns with my experience of him over time. He is without a doubt a great clutch player, which is to say he can make a higher % of difficult shots than almost anyone else, but that was also his weakness, he took too many of them, when he didnt need to, instead of passing the ball in late game moments. I think he thought too much about the Jordan shadow and cared too much about what people would say if he passed the ball to an open player (like they did with Lebron) and made his team end up with a worse shot. He lost many close games not just on clutch shot misses, but in the 5+ minutes of the 4th quarter where he would try to "take over" and run into double and triple teams and still shoot over them. It is crazy to think 1. That his teams ended up as successful as they did and 2. They could have been even better if he passed more often in those moments where the opposing team was 100% assuming he would take the last shot.

[zanderyokum]

Change nothing. Your videos are the highllight of my day every time you upload.

[RaidPerspective]

The production value on your videos is truly next level

[Trailboynate]

I appreciate not only your data analysis, but your interpretation as well. It's one thing to say this player is the most clutch but to say he's only four shots away from average helps but it into perspective. And to also take into account other clutch elements, just great work.

[MikeBNumba]

There's one huge variable you left out in this video. The teams the clutch moments are happening on.

Example: LeBron's clutch shots against the Pacers, Raptors and Bulls in the playoffs; were they really clutch when his teams were going to win the series anyways?

That's why people remember the ones Kobe, Jordan and even Dame made.

The Kyrie Irving. That was a much bigger moment then a last minute shot when the game is tied on a Raptors team you ended up sweeping anyways.

Great video by the way. I love overall message, I just belive that's why people are surprised when they LeBron's name at the top of these lists