The Hidden Consequences of Putin’s Arrest Warrant from the International Criminal Court

On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, stemming from Russian deportation of Ukrainian children. But like other international institutions, the ICC has no direct enforcement capability. Given that, does the warrant mean anything at all? This video explores some of the more subtle consequences, including media coverage, travel restrictions, problems with going into exile, and deterring lower-level bureaucrats.

0:00 International Criminal Court Issues Warrant for Putin
2:07 The ICC’s Enforcement Problem
4:18 Media Buzz
7:41 Restricted Travel
10:53 Problems with Exile
15:43 Deterring Bureaucrats
17:01 Russia in the 1908 Olympics

By Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken:

[Gametheory]

Don't skip the outro at 17:01! I have been waiting six years to find the right time to tell that story, and it is basically it's own mini video.

[querium]

What angers me is knowing that, despite the overwhelming evidence of these atrocities, in twenty years we will find ourselves arguing with people who will deny that they even happened.

[ferretzim]

The arrest warrant also acts as a declaration of rejection, and call into question his legitimacy, as he's now officially considered a wanted criminal.
And even if no country decides to arrest him, they can potentially refuse him entry, or even refuse access to their airspace for travel, isolating him and giving his opposition material to weaken his popularity. It also threatens his allies, and could make them reconsider their allegiance, as they could be next on the chopping block

[ZAUN]

Important note on South Africa, one of the many countries Al-Bashir traveled to was South Africa which has thus already proven that it holds diplomatic immunity over the ICC warrants. This is another reason they didn't seal the warrant. Much to the ICC's disappointment, diplomatic immunity still overrides as a more fundamental international law.

[johns.]

The evience from the United Stateds is that the popularity of presidents spikes with the onset of a war but declines as the war drags on. Instructive video!

[MaxCheng]

Medvedev also just allegedly threatened hypersonic missiles on any country dared to arrest Putin, which I find it extremely amusing

[susananyasani]

Es ist schmerzlich die Kinder wurden von ihre Mutter getrennt und waren in einem fremden Land ohne einverstanden von der Eltern es ist unmenschlich und traurig

[tudorelacatrinei]

This was good, very good. By far one of the most interesting video i ve seen in a long time.

[IDSGT]

This would have been unthinkable a few months back when everyone was worried about Vlad’s off-ramp.

[addymant]

I think it would be incredibly improper for an judicial body to try and schedule their decisions and rulings to the media cycle

[trueriver]

10:51 (reasons for the ICC not waiting till Putin is visiting a signatory state).
3. The ICC made the diplomatically aware decision that a surprise announcement during a visit would be seen as coercive on the host state. It made the call that they are more likely to get compliance if the warrant does not come as a surprise. In this context, releasing the news on a garbage day might have been deliberate.

I'm not answering that this is the case: I'm simply saying that it's another possible reading of their thinking.

[erstimus]

If anything, the ICC’s willingness to issue a warrant for someone as powerful as Putin means that they’re not going to overlook anyone else soon, which will hopefully deter smaller tyrants from doing similar things.

[rockymountainlockpicker]

I’ll be surprised to ever see Putin brought to trial, but that international arrest warrant definitely sends a strong message

[joeshmoe]

"The pope? How many divisions has he got?" -Medvedev, totally not some other guy

[amodernalchemist]

Funny thing about Russia's "humanitarian" mission of adopting Ukrainian children with gifts, candy, toys and all the other things that kids like is the fact that child predators use the exact same method for *luring* children and tricking them into thinking "everything's just fine." And the next thing they know is that they are in the back of a windowless van being taken somewhere they don't wanna be, unwillingly. *This is a terrible tragedy that is extremely troubling!*

[Drathaar]

I live in Ukraine. Every year, I hear from my (Ukrainian) wife that they're going to change Christmas to December 25th. And every year, it's on January 7th. Kids are still in school on Dec 25th. Stores are open on the 25th - never on Jan 7. This is what is called a, "I'll believe it when I see it" situation.

[hamzamahmood]

"We do not recognize this court."

"Also, anyone who complies with this court will be nuked."

[mauserkar]

In short: he won't visit countires that can or are willing to arrest him and the warrant have zero effect on his domestic situation.

And that's it.

[StoutShako]

I feel like you missed a major reason why the ICC chose not to wait to spring the announcement: They think the war will be over BEFORE August 23rd and are letting Putin know that his options for getting out of the mess he created is now severely limited.

[MDCDiGiPiCs]

Thanks once again William, another great presentation.
The addendum on the Gregorian calendar was fantastic.