China: The Next Crisis (w/ Kyle Bass) | Real Vision™

“We are facing the largest macro imbalance in history.” Hear Kyle Bass discuss the current Chinese NPL crisis and its possible effects on the broader market – only at Real Vision.

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China: The Next Crisis (w/ Kyle Bass) | Real Vision™

[RealVisionFinance]

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[gemrocks]

What has happened to Kyle Bass's Japan prediction?

[lance]

Stay away from Chinese investments you got your warning, you deserve loss if you invest in China.

[ChristopherWalkenPUA]

This fall/winter is going to be an entertaining time in the oil markets given the continuous stream of dismal economic data we get from China every weekend. If the reports featured on zerohedge about China reaching capacity in its SPR are true, look out below.

[rickcouture]

without Hong Kong to leverage China's currency whats it

[lovesimpleton]

Why would capitalizing the banks lead to the devaluation of the RMB? I would imgaine that would simply create more inflation within China. I agree with some of his arguments on China. But you have to be truly living here to understand whats happening in a country. Chinas GDP growth rates are real, probably somewhat understated over the past many years. Now the economy is slowing, I expect them to overstate the rates over the coming years to give a consistent figure. Chinese is still one of the most hardworking and industrious people on earth, at its current level of GDP per head theres still huge potential upside. That doesnt mean it wont go through a period of resession. In long term the main driver for economic growth is technological progress.

[stevenobinator]

Share what Bass has to say, Hate this style of promotion. You waste peoples time, then they are angry for not showing them fully. Intelligent investors would never become victim to this front, this game is about ideas, not a golden key. We all should share our ideas, but not specific strategies we've developed for years. I would pay for that but not ideas!

[anyau]

does kyle know that china has gold reserves?

[LLee]

10 months from that interview: 1 USD to 6.30 rmb. The latter has strengthened almost 10% against the USD. Opsss!

[zeev]

at 3;50 he says "what's intersting is the politics doesn't work that way'.

this is ultimately a debate about politics. why? because terminal end-game and transition state economics is about politics.

it's about who gets to make the decisions about bailouts . it is why the fed and central banks are never truly 'independent' of the regimes they finance. they are trapped in a relationship with them.

and of course, when it comes to chinese regimes and other dictat have a lot more adhesive power by government over central bankers, whether they be public or privately run central banks.

i don't really think kyle undersetands chinese politics. he tries framing political systems as derivative of economic systems and functioning as an option overlying the economic underlying. but this is not so. soros and his reflexivity principles apply deeply in these scenarios. that is why he invests in changing political attitudes via the open society insititute to influence economic outcomes AND NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND.

arguably, the more political a county is ----and you cannot get much more political than less your economic expertise is going to help you predict the future of crisis response in a timely and PROFITEABLE fashion. politics is way hella hard to predict for foreigners of ANY nation. and the 'objective outsider' status seen in history by the likes of marco polo and explorers may characterize some people like bass very well, but their ability to see objective cultural and economic fundamentalls DOES NOT equal political incite into the details of the chinese game of thrones at the highest level. he may understand the underlying realities that the big players must deal with in making their deciions but what he doesn't understand is that in politics the big players also face POLITICAL realities that can vastly change their approach to decision making and timing of those decisions with respect to underlying conditions.

i would wager that your average CCP member who holds some sort of political positions high up in any regard would have lmore likely accurate incite into what is most likely to happen and WHEN than does kyle bass.

i know jim grant and the likes of many a contrarian has gone broke betting against japan. whose to say the chinese will not coordinate their devaluation in a timely manner with the american european english and japanese central banks. maybe they won't of course as kyle predicts....but WHEN is still up in the air.

it's not enough to be right, you must be right on timing as well and kyle's epic gambles on the subprime crisis have not yielded repeated success. and he has definitely made some mistakes in the past 5

he is not persuading anyone on the timing of some epic chinese devaluation. the chinese can simply prove him wrong by slow steady coordinated devaluation over time that doesn't lead to some epic bust up, or the bust up comes a lot later than kyle believes...that said, hugh grant comes off like a raving lunatic i've been watching kyle's hair line recede over the years, and i think it's OFFICIALLY TIME HE SHAVE AND GO FULL BALD. MAKE THE JUMP you have a nice shaped just shave it baby!

[originalideas]

The solution is technologically called "debt/equity swap". Since the majority of debt is still domestic issue and China is still socialism dominated nation, the solution can be stepwise and effective.
Philip Kuhn has already talked about the relationship of local govt and central govt in China, the system design is fundamentally different with USA, something is rooted in the soil and spirits, which is literally called "An overriding desire to unify".
Don't fool yourself anymore, buddy.

[wpduke]

Okay, it's been 2 years and the world hasn't ended.

[twenlil]

Kyle Bass, who is he ? He is the founder of Hayman Capital Management. "The firm manages 18 accounts totaling an estimated $814, 896, 534 USD in assets under management. "
"In the next 8 years, the fund averaged 1.56% annualized."

And he thinks he can do battle with the Chinese ?

China Investment Corporation (CIC) was established in 2007 with approximately US$200 billion of assets under management. At the end of 2014, the CIC had over US$740 billion in assets under management.

"The 2016 Annual Report shows that in 2016, CIC's overseas investments generated a net return of 6.22% and a net cumulative annualized return of 4.76% since CIC's inception. The Report shows that as of the end of 2016, CIC's total assets surpassed US $813.5 billion and the annualized growth rate of state-owned capital had reached 14.08% since CIC' inception (all measured in US$). In CIC's global investment portfolio, public equity, fixed income, alternative investments, and cash and others accounted for 45.87%, 15.01%, 37.24%, and 1.88% respectively."


The Chinese will eat his lunch !

[jamiekloer]

I think what he is saying is we are all screwed.

[pismo]

Kyle's returns for the last 8 years has been just over 1% annualized. Not so good. Tough business even for a genius like him.

[liyexiang]

kyle, kyle, the poor guy, might be right, in the wrong time~~~ GOOD SONG, U WELCOME

[jyotpurohit]

Anyone here after evergrande collapse?