Russia's Mobilization Announcement: The Ten Biggest Takeaways

After demonstrating a terrible inability to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks, Russia had to do something. Putin's answer? Mobilizing 300,000 more soldiers to the frontlines. However, the announcement itself reveals deeper details about what will happen over the next phase of the conflict. This video covers the ten biggest takeaways.

0:00 Putin's Big Announcement
0:28 Gambling for Resurrection
1:43 Aggressive Referenda
3:02 Bolstering Domestic Support
4:14 Nazis
5:38 Ukraine's Nuclear Weapons?
8:02 Truthiness
9:34 Partial Mobilization
11:05 Ineffective Mobilization?
13:04 Nuclear Threats
15:15 "This Is Not a Bluff"

By IAEA:

By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:

By IAEA:

By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:

By Че Гевара:

By Ukinform:

By Andrew Butko:

By Bundesarhciv:

[TheArchfiend]

Ukraine might literally run out of room to house the soldiers that surrender immediately on the front lines.

[glaubersenarega]

As someone who's living in Russia and watching all of this unfold from the inside, I can say without hesitation that it IS a general movilization, even on paper. The "partial movilization" thing of Putin's speech is nothing but an attempt to make it seem as not such a big deal and lower social unrest.

[knasper]

This whole "this is not a bluf" reminds me of when Tywin Lannister said: A king who must say "I am the king" is no true king.

[martinhartecfc]

I don't know if you will ever read this, but if you do, could you please do a video analysing the recent attacks on the two Nordstream pipelines? No one seems quite sure who's behind it and I think your kinnd of game-theoretic analysis could clarify that a lot! Whether you do that video or not, thank you for your great content in general!

[sysims]

The only Russian senator that voted against annexing Crimea is living in exile. I listened to an interview with him and he indicated that the referendums were legal grounds for which to dispatch new recruits into the war zone. Apparently they are not allowed to send new recruits anywhere but Russian soil. I found that to be an interesting perspective. Thank you for your evaluation as well it was very insightful

[ViolentaShadow]

As a Master Strategist once said: "Don't believe ANYTHING until the Kremlin denies it."

[arniewilliamson]

I think Putin is worried and desperately flailing for some action that may help. The problem with conscripts in an unpopular war is that they would sooner surrender than fight. I remember after D Day my dad and future uncle were walking a bunch of Germans who had surrendered back to the POW clearing centre.

When he left them one of the soldiers he had been talking to wished him good luck.

Puzzled he asked the soldier why he wished him good luck

The German replied “My war is over”

[darkplanetable]

Most competent and balanced analysis of the current events... thanks and respect!

[bocamax]

Saying "This is not a bluff" is like saying "Trust me". I don't think there has been one time in my life where someone said "Trust Me" where that did anything except create the opposite reaction. Sounds like something a used car salesman or an extended warranty seller would say to a senior citizen. The very fact that he said "This is not a bluff" makes it seem all the more likely that it is a bluff.

[PeterscentsWorth]

No clickbait, no sensationalism - Great job . Subscribed.

[werwolfnate]

Any one of these three actions would have seemed desperate on their own. To have them happen all at once is especially desperate.

[CinemaDemocratica]

I do some private ESL tutoring here in Phnom Penh and two of my clients are ethnic Russians who moved here from Ukraine. Both of them have told me something quite remarkable: They believe that Putin thought the ethnic Russians in Ukraine would consider themselves patriotic Russians before and above anything else -- and they assert (convincingly) that this was his big mistake. They point out that to be a Russian living in Ukraine, you must first have decided to LEAVE RUSSIA, and that the decision to do so is at best a neutral actor on your Russian patriotism, but probably a lot worse than neutral.

[paulmurray]

My takeaway is that it's his last throw of the dice in a losing game, in hopes of surviving the consequences of his grossest of miscalculations. The idea is to force a negotiated end to the war on his terms, which allows him to keep the part of Ukraine Russia currently occupies. Mobilization and referendums are meant to prove that Russia has not only the capacity to endure and defend "legitimate" occupied territories but also conduct further offensives. Failing that, as Ukraine inevitably retakes territory, then nuclear weapons may be used as retaliation for attacks on newly-minted Russian territory. As usual with Putin, it's 90% theater and 10% reality.

[DavidM]

One of the most important lines from Putin's speech : "...I find it necessary to support the proposal of the Defense Ministry and the General Staff on partial mobilization in the Russian Federation to defend our Motherland..." . He has created a perfect avenue to blame someone else for the failure that is sure to follow.

[stjavelin]

First time watcher and I have had college lectures on combat and your breakdowns are more substantive and informed than said lectures. I will share your channel.

[IIIAnchani]

my biggest takeaway from Putin's speech was that Russia is losing the war big time, in a manner even worse than I had thought.

[schizotypal]

One more thing about mobilisation in Russia. (From Russia)
The current situation is that simply ignoring the mobilisation can get you up to 2 years of incarceration, whilst following the mobilisation can get you killed or maimed. Even the soldiers for whom it will be up to 10 years in prison may weight it against certain death (of cold, Ukranian shelling or internal conflicts in the army).

[tensecondbuickgn]

Soviet era ex KGB agent who has "liitle man" syndrome and is the leader of a nation with nuclear weapons. What could go wrong....

[pantheon]

I actually haven’t seen a lot of panic from the media I read around the “not a bluff” line. So far, the response I’ve seen around has been “not a bluff, said every bluffer ever.”

[garneauweld]

This is ridiculous. The entire conflict has resulted in Russians more or less killing Russians. It's really too bad, but I'll have to give credit where credit is due: Those Ukrainians are tough and great fighters who love their country and wish to defend what's theirs and their way of life. That kind of motivation has to be respected. I literally pray that this remains a conventional conflict without the use of chemical or nuclear weapons. War always has been hell, is hell and will always be hell. Some things never change. May this conflict be resolved as soon as possible!