Will civilization collapse? | WIRED’s Kevin Kelly

WIRED founder Kevin Kelly explains why progress often looks like dystopia to the untrained eye.

Imagine that tomorrow, the world magically got 1% better. Nobody would notice. But if the world got 1% better every year, the "compounding" effect would be very noticeable — in the same way that compounding grows a bank account.

When technology solves a problem, it creates new problems. The solution is not less technology but better technology.

Kevin Kelly of WIRED magazine calls this incremental progress toward a better world "protopia." Protopia is a direction, not a destiny.

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This video is part of The Progress Issue, a Big Think and Freethink special collaboration.

In this inaugural special issue we set out to explore progress — how it happens, how we nurture it and how we stifle it, and what changes are required in how we approach our most serious problems to ensure greater and more equitable progress for all.

It’s time for a return to optimism.

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About Kevin Kelly
Kevin Kelly is Senior Maverick at WIRED magazine. He co-founded WIRED in 1993, and served as its Executive Editor for its first seven years. His newest book is The Inevitable, a New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller. He is founder of the popular Cool Tools website, which has been reviewing tools daily for 20 years. From 1984-1990 Kelly was publisher and editor of the Whole Earth Review, a subscriber-supported journal of unorthodox conceptual news. He co-founded the ongoing Hackers’ Conference, and was involved with the launch of the WELL, a pioneering online service started in 1985. Other books by Kelly include 1) Out of Control, the 1994 classic book on decentralized emergent systems, 2) The Silver Cord, a graphic novel about robots and angels, 3) What Technology Wants, a robust theory of technology, and 4) Vanishing Asia, his 50-year project to photograph the disappearing cultures of Asia. He is currently co-chair of The Long Now Foundation, which is building a clock in a mountain that will tick for 10,000 years.

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This is part of our inaugural special issue on Progress: how it happens, how we nurture it and how we stifle it, and what changes are required in how we approach our most serious problems to ensure greater progress for all.

Videos:



Articles:

[Josh_the_Grey]

I respect an optimistic perspective, and appreciate it, but I have serious doubts that those who innovate and shape the world have the best interests of anyone but themselves at heart. Corporate greed is running amok. The only thing that matters to these powers is profit, not progress.

[beaumartin]

I agree with some of the others in the comments that this view is flawed. I also think the title is clickbaity. We cannot blindly hope to innovate ourselves out of problems or trust that the people developing technology have our best interests in mind. We cannot continue to overconsume the earth's resources and hope that before we reach the level of climate catastrophe we will create a new technology that saves us. I think he has a few interesting points like about it being a process and not a destination but overall for him to claim technology will save us and that dystopias never last are absurd.

[jonas]

hm . the Amish have an actual community to connect with phones . for all too many of us in the rest of the world, smartphones just create the illusion of community, in my book .

[konspiracykid]

His definition of protopia is incredibly vague. To me, he's a watered down version of the technical utopianists of the 60s and 70s. Technology has brought incredible gains in our standards of living and our ability to communicate with each other. But it's also brought ecological destruction, enabled the state to pry into our lives and corporations to sell us more unnecessary products at immense cost to the environment. And, it's brought humanity to the point where it can destroy all life on the planet in a nuclear exchange. That's enough to make me pessimistic about the future

[thomasdequincey]

"Progress" is subjective. "Better" is subjective. Civilization's have regularly collapsed over history's time span.

[MostHighEmperorPalpatine]

I'm just glad he explained how tech becomes a thing when you see something similar on some old TV show/movie. Instead of thinking "they predicted the future!" No... they simply wanted what they saw and figured it out!

[harbormelody]

Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance- wealth, a great career, purpose-is the result of hard work and hustle over time. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life..

[spacemanspiff]

My fear of dystopia isn’t rooted in the progression of technology. Rather, it’s rooted in the long term destruction of the planet due to climate change, and in the short term decline of western democracy.

[dmtdreamz]

In 1947, a couple of aliens flew to Earth in a silver saucer-shaped craft. After closely observing mankind, they shit themselves laughing and crashed into the desert in Roswell, New Mexico. The US Army found the shit covered craft, conducted an investigation, deduced what happened and out of embarressment told the public it was a weather balloon.,

[simplethings]

There is no law that says a dystopian system cannot form and remain indefinitely. Just ask North Korea. And there is no reason this can't be world wide.

[chrisklugh]

Not to take anything away from what you have said, but I have to state, whatever we do it has to be Sustainable. Anything not Sustainable has to end and we exist on Unsustainability.

[thegameisafoot]

Define "civilization." Then define "collapse." Based on your presonal interpretations of those concepts, an answer should be relatively easy to arrive at.

[NicholasDunbar]

This is how I think of utopian thinking but I constantly run into people interpreting utopia as by definition impossible. I'll use protopia from now on.

[trunoholdaway]

It's an interesting philosophy that definitely should be elaborated on. It's absolutely true that many people fear new technology but there are certainly many others who who see it as a benefit. Science is nothing more than a tool so it's morality should be interpreted through our actions and intentions. Unfortunately as science gets more advanced it also becomes less democratic. Advanced science requires large institutions and infrastructure all working towards a singular goal. Very few organizations have the capability to conduct science at this scale, as such advanced science often conforms to the goals of these organizations. Currently the main motives driving science right now are profit and military power, not exactly noble goals. This explains why we build more nuclear bombs than nuclear reactors and why we keep using fossil fuels despite having many viable alternatives. We need to find a way to balance our scientific goals to be more altruistic, otherwise we will continue on this dystopian path.

[amitdahal]

Technology used properly can help but if not used properly will harm progress. Progress has to be measured with sustainable effects to the overall ecosystem

[trottiscliffe]

Well lets see if someone can figure out that you can't have infinite growth with finite resources. Never has a species consumed so many resources at such an alarming rate. How do you make a sustainable world?

[thesharkormoriantm]

Kevin Kelly : "Technology will make a better world".
Hunter-gatherers : Look what he needs to mimic a fraction of our power.

[nickdelonas]

One small problem: we're running out of economically-accessible oil and natural gas. Technology (indeed all modern civilization) runs on these and there are no feasible replacements that can be scaled up until long after we've run out.

[Mustachioed_Mollusk]

Understanding how to connect with others is a prerequisite in unlocking our phones ability to amplify our ability to connect with others.