Is Trump 2.0 a Guaranteed Foreign Policy Disaster?

Eric and Eliot debate the latter's Atlantic article arguing that a second Trump term might not be that catastrophic on foreign policy. They discuss why people shouldn't catastrophize the possible outcomes, the traditional continuity between Administrations on foreign policy despite overheated partisan campaign rhetoric and the inextricable links between domestic and foreign policy. They discuss potential dire outcomes for Ukraine (and Taiwan), the impact on NATO, possible "adults in the room" in a second term, JD Vance and Don Trump Jr.'s possible roles as gatekeepers and personnel gurus, and Trump's moment of grace after the assasination attempt. They look back on earlier episodes of violence and conspiracy mongering in American history in the 1960s and 1840s and 1850s. Finally, they discuss Kamala Harris's chances against Trump and the likely contours of foreign policy in a Harris Administration.

Eliot's Atlantic Article:

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

[tamsinlewis]

I'm a white 74-year old woman from rural Virginia. The only girl of eight children. My mother died on the operating table while having a hysterectomy, the only true means of birth control in 1950. I was five years old when she died. My youngest brother was 4 months old. It was a fearful time. My father didn't make much money and my grandmother did the best she could to provide some stability. We worked for pennies when we were just children. It was a tough life for all eight of us, no government assistance, no health insurance, no special advantages. We did grow up but not without psychological baggage that had to be overcome. All eight of us did well by society's standards primarily due to availability of birth control. Education was my priority. I elected to have one child who grew up to be a fine young man. I earned a bachelors degree from a Jesuit university while working a full time demanding job. Now, at 74, proud to say that I've accomplished my goals and look forward to other achievements, all because of easily availability of birth control. We won't go back just so Corporations can have cheap labor due to lack of education and lack of birth control. Yes, I'm white from rural America and KAMALA speaks for me, too! We won't go back!

[johntracy]

Don't give MAGA Mike credit for passing Ukraine aide. The 8 month delay put Ukraine on its back feet and allowed Russia to take the initiative.

[eleanoraquitaine]

I like strategery, too. As a 78 year old woman who worked in military intelligence, I'm flabbergasted and deeply grateful that the Democratic Party finally discovered it. They've never had it before. They kept going high when the right wing went low. Now I can see a spine and a powerful woman leader with real messaging.

[IusedtohaveausernameIliked]

Trump 2.0 would be a disaster in every conceivable way. And some not so conceivable.

[La_Roo]

Trump promised that he’ll fix it so WE NEVER VOTE AGAIN.

I’m an American. I like voting. How about you? 🗳💙🇺🇸

[markdeckard]

trump's "Do whatever the hell you want just write me a check first" foreign policy approach doesn't seem like the best thing for the country.

[thor-cjdh]

Not catastrophizing can lead to a far more dangerous thing: A failure of imagination.

[JustinSolomon]

Cohen giving Mike Johnson and Republicans credit for doing the bare minimum and passing the Ukraine aid bill is unreal

[jeffmaehre]

Here's what Cohen isn't realizing: someone visiting the land where Aushwitz stood in 1937 wouldn't have seen a problem either.

[davidbaker]

It's no laughing matter. Trump can't be president again 😮

[Marjorelle]

Yeah.. Chamberlain gave Germany the benefit of the doubt. Be careful.

[colechillen]

Trump gave the playbook of how he'll reak havoc at home and abroad. These guys, for all their expertise, are experiencing a failure of imagination. The same failure that got us Trump to begin with.

[hollandanish]

So great to hear these two elderly Republicans talking politics. I love the tone of glow that pervades their exchange a gentle tone of self admonition. My great, great grandparents and other relatives were Jews who lived in Austria and Italy. We have no idea of what became of them nor the extended family. Fortunately for me my grand parents were in Liverpool. When the Nazis were rising to power, a small vociferous, powerless group of thugs led by an unhinged demagogue. They reassured family members that they were perfectly safe this was Germany of the 20th century after all. So just in case you have glossed over that moment in history Mr. Cohen, I would like to refresh your historian's brain and refer you to Trump's discussion of putting people into concentration camps, oh sorry detention camps. He talks about a beautiful mother with 3 beautiful children ( does he remember that Vance has a brown wife and 3 mixed race babies?) And he says that the liberal press would portray that as a bad thing, not like in the days of Eisenhower!!!???
Taken out into the woodshed Mr. Cohen? Maybe a visit to the Dr. To have your hearing checked and a check on your own mental acuity.
The rest of your discussion was just a friendly jaw with an old friend, no real insight but atleast not weird like the opening comments about "catastrophising". Please, I know it's difficult to look at beliefs and values you may have held for a life time but maybe this is a moment of unique peril.

[clairmilanovich]

wow - are both of you really trying for the Chamberlain award.

[Afterflowers-vk]

If Trump was a "normal" political figure it would be absurd to see someone be that cozy with figures like Putin and that careless with national security documents and not characterize them as a serious risk to national security.

[georgefrench]

Elliot’s analysis, wish casting and fantastical thinking of a best case scenario ‘what if’ trump 2nd term is the most disappointing thing on Shield of the Republic that I’ve seen. In fact it’s borderline shameful with false faith in better angels and inaccurate analysis of recent Supreme Court decisions. Thumbs way down

[mkbrv]

Can't disagree with you more on the idea of 'continuity' from admin to admin in the current environment. Historically, there used to be more continuity and stability, but the past decade has diverged from that with the introduction of Trump and the extremist policies, justices, and rhetoric he has introduced into the process. You need look no further than this activist SCOTUS. The game has changed and there is no continuity any more since the GOP no longer exists as a viable political party under a small 'd' democratic paradigm. They've done a complete 180 from traditional foreign policy values and on the domestic front they're talking about a post constitutional America. How do you see continuity in that? Trump said just yesterday we won't have the vote anymore if he were to be elected. There is no stability or continuity anymore and our enemies and allies can see this. I was raised in a Reagan household, but i will vote Democratic until a true conservative party emerges again without crypto fascists airheads carrying the banner.

[tpeters]

Have these two old men been living under a rock?

[diannasgardenmenagerie]

Neither Gen X nor Gen Z have ever catastrophized. We are just sick of all the BS so we are going to get rid of it. We want progress!

[johntracy]

Do you really think we cad afford to role the dice on the future of our country on"might".