The Geopolitics of Microchips and Semiconductors

The Biden administration has just dealt a massive blow to the trajectory of the Chinese military, placing a ban on high-end microchips and semiconductors entering China. This is a virtually unprecedented move, and will almost certainly anchor down any growth for China's next generation of warfighting technology, but was this the right time? This is the most prominent card the US could have possibly played. Should they have played it now and given Beijing a chance to recover before a possible war, or played it later when China was at its most vulnerable? We sat down with our panel of experts to ask what effects these sanctions will have both now, and in the long term.

On the panel this week:
- Tim Cross (The Economist)
- Bob Guterma (The China Project)
- Jordan Schneider (Rhodium Group)
- Chris Miller (Tufts School)

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[ryancoleman]

Most underrated channel. I’m a machinist and listening to this helps to drown out the mind numbing vibration of the machines

[christianoliver]

I love listening to these to and from school, very insightful

[miketheneanderthal]

You make the point that playing the chip card is a one off, then no longer available to the US in a time of war. The experts you bring on all cite the unique attributes of chip fab, from complex supply chains, to insanely difficult manufacturing, to Moore's law has reasons why this is different than under sea oil drilling bits, for example.

I think these things are all true, and also the dynamic of time horizons being of concern.

China seems to have a very short term window to grab a global hegemonic position. The US garners huge economic benefits and privileges because of its unique position. If China cannot wrest control of global financial dominance from the US in the next few years, I think that it's relative position and ability to do so will disappear.

Today, China may be able to hold on to a seemingly bottomless chest of resources to overwhelm others, but in 10 years I think it will be forced to become the world leader in producing Depends adult diapers, and relatively speaking, not be able to compete with the west on the world stage.

Withholding high-tech chips doesn't have to hold off China forever, it just has to run out the clock.

[hsanguily]

Saved to my " Watch later list" .
Hope the audio is ok this time.

[alehaim]

Got around to listening to this now, but was an excellent piece