Hunga Tonga Volcano Update; The Largest Eruption in 30 Years?

The destructive eruption of Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai which just occurred is now reported as the largest explosive eruption to occur in the 21st century. New estimates suggest that its eruption was larger than the 1980 eruption of Mount Saint Helens, ejecting 10 cubic kilometers of volcanic rock. However, despite being published in a journal, there are a number of problems with this analysis. This video will discuss the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai and discuss just how large its eruption was.

Google Earth imagery used in this video: ©Google

Scientific Paper Referenced:
Suggests VEI 6: “Rapid Characterization of Large Volcanic Eruptions: Measuring the Impulse of the Hunga…”, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 49, Issue 8, N. Shapiro & others

0:00 Hunga Tonga Erupts
1:08 Preliminary Eruption Size Estimates
1:34 VEI Scale
2:27 Evidence for a VEI 6 eruption
2:58 Criticism of the VEI 6 hypothesis
3:47 Conclusion

[GeologyHub]

If you are wondering how the model seems off by a factor of 20 instead of the 10 my criticism explained, there are two other factors.
1. The model assumed that EVERYTHING which was contained in the eruption column was ash and would thus count towards VEI. However, the eruption plume was white, indicating a heavy water composition.
2. The model has an undetermined constant which is used in calculations but whose actual figure is not yet known. Only a very narrow sample set was used to approximate this constant, as large volcanic eruptions WITH seismic data publicly available are rare.
I am genuinely intrigued by this methodology, as there is potential for it to be used to near-immediately estimate the size of a volcanic eruption. However, it needs less assumptions and a larger sample size to greatly improve its accuracy.

[huskytail]

I love how careful and measured towards science you are. This is exactly the attitude we all should have towards any claims - interested but careful and taking into consideration the available data in its entirety. Well done and thanks for one more interesting video 👍

[bobvail]

"But this is science and more information may prove me wrong."
I'm very grateful for your work AND your attitude!

[wendywilson]

I so appreciate that you share openly your inquiring thoughts when it comes to critical data that may or may not be verifiable concerning volcanic eruptions. Especially in this current time of being able to view such notable happenings live with technology. I always appreciate that you explore the "maybe, maybe not" issues of volcano activity around the world.Thank you. I love that you do these YT learning sessions. Keep up the good work, and thanks for making all of us use our grey matter to "think" beyond what we see.

[oscarmedina]

Good point made, about "continuous" vs. gaps. The conclusions could be completely different. Thanks for the update.

[jfxl]

I very much enjoy the fact-based nature of your videos. If only all of the news was presented in such a factual nature... Thank you!

[winstonviceroy]

Waiting eagerly for an Etna and Krakatoa update.

[kimm]

Appreciate your fantastic example of scientific integrity on this channel. Science communication (especially regarding our methods) to the general public is so important.

[MihzvolWuriar]

Man, this eruption was such a impacting event that many channels here in Brazil started spreading fearmongering, and it was interesting also, that I took the time to explain why they were wrong, some channels and many users asked me for more info, most of the sources I showed them were the ones you and the channel Volcanoverse provided, it was nice to see people not giving in to fearmongering.

[edwardfletcher]

Educated, measured & logical.
This is how to present good science 👍

[josekuhn]

or maybe we need to revisit how to categorize the explosivity of a volcano to be more than volume. The force of the explosion should matter too. That is what Tonga showed us.

[erlienfrommars]

2:15 VEI 6 eruptions have ~75 year average interval

Yeah but then the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa and the 1912 eruption of Nova Rupta has about 29 years between them, and Santa Maria eruption in between cuts that interval by even more.

[HiggsBoson]

As someone who isn't a geologist or volcanologist, I am curious if is it really a fair to compare the size of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption to eruptions that occured inland using the VEI. To my knowledge the VEI doesn't account for the water displaced by an eruption, which I would think is important to measuring the size of an eruption that has interaction with the ocean. Also, to my knowledge there are parts of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano that are underwater, in some places several hundred feet below the surface. I imagine that at least some ejected material may from the eruption never reached the surface due the how much more viscous water is than air. Are current methods of estimating VEI from plumes able to well well for eruptions like the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption?

[scrappydoo]

Thank you for the update 🙂 I have been wondering what the situation was now the scientific world has had time to assess the situation more thoroughly.

[GSMSfromFV]

03:37 __ . . . . "the rather burpy nature of eruptions. . . ." Yes, I can relate! ;o))

[elric_]

I feel like VEI should've been created to mean Volcanic Emission Index, instead of explosivity, to avoid confusion. The power of an explosion doesn't necessarily correlate to the amount of ash emitted, just like in this eruption. Thoughts?

[geistlos]

Dude gets serious props for hitting that full name right :)

[rockybass]

Wow! Actual honesty in how it’s Measured. Thank you

[mistysowards]

Yea this eruption was insane. I believe it was a solid vei4 but w. A plume height of a vei6 and you already explained why the plume height had such an absurd height in a previous video on this volcano. I don't think enough material was erupted for it to be a Vei 5. Although it did erupt the ash faster than I think ever recorded... idk. It's a scary volcano and just watching that satellite view is so humbling and makes you realize our world can change so quickly.

[magnumserpentine]

I believe HTHH Volcano was a very low end VEI 5 (VEI 5.05). It was smaller than Mt. St. Helens (VEI 5.1) but still had enough ejection to be a 5. I agree with you that it cannot be a 6. It seems to me (and in my opinion only) that there is not enough material for that to happen. (And as the saying goes, "What You said" too))