The Monty Hall Problem

Three doors, one with a million dollars. You pick a door but before I show you your door, I open one of the others. It does not have the million dollars. Change your pick? (You should!)

Further Reading/Watching:

Music:
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License

[tortoisemaster]

I've heard this problem a million times, but only now actually properly understand why it works xD

[anandpatel]

I've seen so many videos about the Monty Hall problem and this is the only one that actually got me to understand it

[pmk]

Wow, this video presented the best explanation out of all the other videos I have watched explaining this problem. Thanks Evan.

[isaacsteele]

Much better than Vox's video on this topic, more succinct and avoids throwing unnecessary politics into the discussion.

[holyspiritfilling]

Indeed it appears not a strict probability in of itself.. the key factor appears we are given extra information about the situation by Monty Hall which we can apply to our advantage giving us the 2/3 likelyhood of winning by switching.. what a world

[swiftfrost]

i programmed with some javascript, a simulator that effectively proved it, its pretty cool, throughout coding all the scenarios, you see all of the outcomes and how it is a 66% chance if you switch, and only a 33% chance when you stay.

[binyamgirma]

The problem becomes clear to understand when using a 100 doors instead of 3.

[adrelliavillage]

Nice video son, I learned a lot from this video son

[Maercx]

First video that I understood. Thanks!

[nttyyy]

This is the only good explanation of this problem

[xXDarkxIdealsXx]

Pretty much anyone who disagrees with this is guilty of Gambler's Fallacy. I've found that EVERYONE i've ever talked to who thinks this isn't true ALWAYS tends to "add" the separate choices together (i.e. gamblers fallacy) when deciding probability.

[ggleplussuxx]

The probability of better outcome for swapping a door would be approaching a limit of 1/2 as the number of doors approaches infinity, in each case it would be (1+1/n)/2

[QuizmasterLaw]

This is true if Monty a) wants you to lose and b) is not opponent modelling. Does Monty know you have or have not read about bayes theorem? If so can he change his behavior? Probably not! Monty on round 2 has only 2 choices and if one has money he has no choice! But what if monty doesn't care whether you win? Or even wants you to win? And what if there are more doors or some doors have different prizes?

[eweccah.k.]

This is the best explanation I have heard of the Monty Hall Phenomenon.

[Vitorruy]

The only explanationI could actually understood

[therakerdude]

My friend did this to me but she did the car and the goats I guessed a door and she gave me a look so I knew it wasn't that one so I picked the next one and she gave me the same look so I picked the last one and opened THERE WAS NOTHING IN IT

[mirkotopalovic]

there is no M-H problem.do a 1000+ repetitions on a phisical model with live people involved, and since a law of probabilaty will kick in, you will have an answer.it will be 50-50, or an 33-67 %.

[bobshikalob]

This is actually his least popular video.

[richardbuxton]

A reasonable explanation - short and easy to follow but with one error at the 0:49 point in the video... *_Thus I give you additional information_*

The revelation of an empty door is NOT additional information because behind any two doors there will always be at least one goat - 100% certain - entirely predictable - Probability of One (1) - so definitely of no use whatsoever. A common error with many MHP contributors.

The actual - but unstated - offer is to exchange the original selection for the other two doors together. The opening of a useless door is part of the host's misdirection - it provides no useful information and only serves to confuse naive observers.

[jazzymeep]

I could fall asleep to his voice it’s so calming lmao