Why The '30 Year Rule' of Classic Car Prices is Broken - FOREVER

In today's video I talk about the 30 year rule of classic car pricing - why cars become valuable years later, how it is that a Ford can be worth more than a Ferrari and why I don't think this will ever happen again.

#Ferrari #Ford #CarPrice

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[Silverhks]

The speculators are destroying so many hobby markets currently. It's insane

[cameronwood]

My parents paid £1, 200 for my 1980 Land Rover back in 2009, it was my surprise 15th birthday present. We rebuilt it and still to this day it is my only car. Since I bought it prices have ballooned to the point a dealer offered me £30, 000 cash to take it off my hands. I turned it down, because some things are worth more than financial gain. In fact, I drove it across Africa last year before Covid-19, because I wanted to use it and have an adventure.

You may be thinking that this massive increase in prices is a good thing for owners, but what it has actually done is brought a different non-enthusiast customer base to the market, who will give a company a blank cheque to restore it. What this means is people like myself are now not only priced out of the classic car market, but the price for spare parts, particularly those unavailable new, has risen tenfold thus making them far more expensive to run - mainly because said companies are using that blank cheque to hoard parts whatever the cost.

[rogerbarrett]

You're probably right and the most sensible way forward is to not pay too much for your "classic" car and more importantly use and enjoy it. Actually owning, caring for and using an older car has been rather lost in the " what's it worth now " world we currently live in.

[AdamBuckley]

Young people often live in a place with no garage, or even off-street parking. It makes an enormous difference when trying to own/run a 'classic' of any vintage. Good video, loads of interesting points made.

[EA]

I'm gonna have to disagree a bit on the take of young people not liking cars. The real issue is that most of us are priced out of the hobby. While there are more economic opportunities years ago, the reality is that everything now is more expensive than it was years ago too. Many of us in our 20s may remember a time when our parents in the USA bought houses for a quarter of what they sell for now. New cars were cheaper, student debt was lower, and salaries were decent. Today, housing prices are through the roof with supply much lower than before, student debt is higher, cars are more expensive, and salaries haven't risen proportionally to the cost of living. And I'm sorry, but many of us don't want to over-finance ourselves into cars the way other poor shoppers do by focusing on only the monthly payment amount.

Many young people are simply in survival mode, and as a result, most luxuries have to give way. Sadly, that includes cars.

Is the environment a factor? I mean somewhat, except it's more complex than that. In some circles, cars are public enemy number one. But in other circles, airplane flights are public enemy number one. After all, airplanes use a lot pretty dirty fuel, and they contribute a ton to pollution (which is why various short-haul flights are getting removed).

[lptomtom]

I completely agree with nowadays' "near-constant stream of hypercars" you mention at 10:30. I'm not just excited anymore to discover yet another million-pound carbon fiber technological marvel, they all look the same, and feel the same, and their prices are obscene for the average person. Sure, Russian oligarchs and Saudi princes are a very lucrative market to pander to, but I'm not sure the average 12-yo boy hangs posters of McLaren's hypercar of the week on his bedroom walls...

[jameslancaster]

I’m 21 and a proud owner of a mk1 mx5. Even though these are still very cheap they’ve seen a steep price increase over the last few years so I’m glad I bought mine when I did. I’ll never ever sell it

[borderlands]

Classic film cameras may be a useful comparison. With the advent of digital photography, everyone thought film was dead. Between 2003 and 2011 Joe public sold off their old cameras for small change, relative to their previous value. Leicas, Hasselblads, professional Nikons and other cameras that cost serious money a few years before, were worth a fraction of their price. Then people realised that film could still be bought, and specialist manufacturers kept supply healthy. Camera prices bottomed out and began to climb, to the point where a model that could be bought for a few hundred, is now worth several thousand pounds. Something similar may happen to cars as cleaner fuels and alternative energy sources are developed. I wouldn't right off classic motor cars yet.

[mattylf]

I'm encouraged by events like Goodwood Festival of Speed, where you see so many kids getting and building on their interest in cars. The same with car shows, where you see all the spotters around. There just wasn't that things around when I was that age.
We all have to have our fingers crossed that synthetic fuels beomes a real alternative to keeping all these cars running in the future.

[grayfool]

Well put James. If I could go back and somehow keep all the cars I have owned over the past four decades, I would now be a millionaire. None of them were that special at the time but look at the values of classic Minis now. I've opened five. There were also many other things that have gone from cheap junk to collectors items.
Of course, the one that got away was the BIG ONE! I was seriously offered a DB5 in the early eighties for, are you sitting down? £2, 500.00. Yep you read that right. It was OK too. Ran, drove, clean body, lovely interior. The gearbox and rear axle needed some work. I didn't have the money at the time. Two or three years later a complete basket case would cost you at least £50, 000. My arse still hurts from all the self inflicted kicking.

[liammills]

9:20
As one of the very few members of my generation with a passion for the automotive world, I can confirm that we are... well, stuffed. It is considered almost weird these days to have an interest in such things, and is something which is often criticised.

I sit here now knowing that I won't even be halfway through my twenties by the time the ICE cannot be produced from new, and not even halfway through my forties by the time I can't own one whatsoever, and that's just the current state of play: we've already seen the dates change countless times, typically being brought further and further forwards. It is quite a bleak outlook that I may never be able to own and drive something interesting, for the sake of helping a climate that (as long as there aren't stricter regulations on China, cargo ships, etc) will never heal anyway due to any actions of the general public.

[JDKL]

The reason I love this channel so much, the real world education, BUT jay seems the kind of guy I'd happily go for a pint with and chat about the love for cars 🙌

[martinlaver]

Genuinely never felt so depressed watching one of your (most excellent) videos.

[GoldenCroc]

Regarding the start of the video: Finally a guy who understands how prices and the market works, and got the platform to spread that knowledge. Well done.

Edit: Watched the whole video now. One of your best, cant fault anything in it really. This is the kind of "tough love" info that is sometimes needed.

[davidsherley]

Well thought out expose. Lots of points to consider.

One point I’d like to pick up on. I own a well sorted 911-964. When I’m at social events, almost any time I see a child eyeing my car, I offer for them to sit in the driver’s seat. As much as encouraging the dream in younger folks, these cars are too wonderful not to be shared.

[venomtailOG]

I'd say young people still idealise cars. Still want them. Still are huge fans. I'm 21 and don't know a single one of my friends out of like 30 who do not not talk about their favorite cars, models and what they want in the future.

Problem is they're just unrealistally expensive. Yes, the general price of daily commuter consumer cars is dropping but so are wages compared to how quickly inflation's going up along with other living expenses. I alone will likely never afford a car that I dream about simply because 75% of my paycheque goes towards rent. Millenials and Gen Z will be the first generation who will likely be forced to rent for the rest of their lives. Where else are we to find the money for a car if we can't even afford a mortgage on a house. If I have to choose £40'000 for a car or £40'000 for 10% downpayment for a house, I'll choose the house.

If anything I'll likely only be able to afford a motorbike in the future. If I have to choose £70'000 for a base model Volvo or £10'000 for a top of the range Yamaha bike, I'll choose the bike without a second thought. Unless car manufacturers can make something like the MX5 or Z400 available for £15'000, there is no future for cars I'm afraid. Not with the current economy at least.

[donaljamescaddye]

I have an old Porsche 944 that I bought 21 years ago and I really enjoy tinkering and driving . Our kids at 6 and 9 absolutely love it. We all make it a family affair when we go on classic spins and shows. I now know that my car is in safe hands with them whatever time I pass on. I get asked on a regular basis by speculators to name my price - the reply is always "priceless" Our kids have gained an appreciation and love for classics and from these acorns mighty oaks will grow and the scene is safe ! Investor got burned years ago and time they were spit roasted again ! Great channel - really enjoy your videos!!

[Rynardts]

Well as you mentioned, Porsche Synthetic Fuel is the best way forward to keep them alive imo. It's a carbon neutral fuel that does not require any modifications to the petrol ICE. Its certainly a lot more environmentally friendly than digging up lithium all over the place. Why petrol companies like Shell haven't caught on to try and make it mainstream is beyond me.

[tomy]

This is your best video yet, Jay. And that’s a comment from a 30-year Porsche 944 owner (you have been doing videos on these special and overlooked cars lately…thanks! I am one of the few completely restoring a 216k mile 2, 7 liter NA, non-turbo example). I will be sharing this with others, especially in USA, who have no idea that the world of car is about to rapidly change. I was upset at first that my 20 year old put rally mud flaps and a straight pipe with a crackle-tune on my erstwhile daily driver Mk6 GTI which I sold to him, but seen as basically a ‘celebration’ of the ICE as the world changes, my view is now different. Drive them, share them is right!

[ozeskiman]

Well said Jay. This is the same conversation I have had with my other car mates over the past 3 years or so. In fact I was speaking to a principal of the biggest classic car showroom in Australia the other day and he told me that modern cars are selling, but the older classics are a lot slower. As you correctly pointed out, the people who like them are all getting older, and consequently less interested for all the reasons you indicated. Like you, my 575 is going through the premium program currently. I love the car and intend to keep it until they take my licence away, so hopefully at least another 15+ years. I'll drive it as often as the weather permits, and in the end it won't matter what it's worth as I will have great memories from driving a special car. As I tell my friends, there's no ski racks in heaven, so enjoy it while we can. As always your content is excellent.