Ukraine's EU Membership Bid Explained

In this video, I take a look at how Ukraine's bid to join the EU. Looking into a bit of the history of Ukraine, the process of joining, and how long it might be until it might happen.

Select image/footage from Getty Images

Additional imagery credit:
EU Commission

[namenamename]

WonderWhy is this kind of channel that uploads so infrequently that I forget I'm subscribed to them, so it's always a delight to see them upload once more

[theotheronethere]

The challenges are very steep and are a mixture of economic and political reasons.

1. The 2 biggest items in the EU budget are subsides for farmers (CAP) and grants to poorer regions (Cohesion and Social funding). If Ukraine joins, it will instantly be the poorest (per capita GDP is 1/3 of Bulgaria's) and largest farmer country. Unless Germany or Netherlands is willing to write extra hundred billion euro checks to the EU (good luck with that), that will have to reallocated from other countries. I am sure the farmers and citizens of countries such as Poland, Bulgaria, Romanian are all willing to forgo tens if not hundreds of billions of euros for Ukraine.

2. Migration. If Ukraine does join Schengen, I fully expect hundreds of thousands if not millions of Ukrainians will legally move to the west. It makes sense given better economic opportunities in places like Germany. Most will be young and educated. A similar pattern is seen in places like Poland and the Baltic countries (all of them have smaller population post entering the EU). That will steer massive social tension in countries like Germany or France. When Poland entered, there was so much migration to places like the UK, that a stereotype of the "Polish Plumber" stealing jobs was created. It was so strong, that it is widely considered one of the leading causes behind Brexit.

This stuff is beyond the fact that Ukraine is still currently engaged in a protracted conflict with Russia.

[IulianYT]

As a Moldovan citizen, a pro-european one, I am also some kind of realist. I don't view joining EU as a magic pill, that once country joins EU - all the issues are solved instantly. As I understand, the accession is a long process, which itself is step by step improving the country.

[enochlee]

It's always a good day when a new WonderWhy video drops

[graceneilitz]

Let’s be realistic, Ukraine is not joining the EU anytime soon.
The next country to join the EU will (outside of unpredictable events) be Montenegro.

[Artosk]

Aside from the issues with Ukraine specifically joining there seems to be a growing feeling that there should be a freeze in expansion in general in order to focus on internal EU reform

[ILoveWoWandRock]

It's amazing how many people don't understand EU rules. You don't need to be in Schengen to move to other EU countries, you only need to be an EU member. Without being part of the Schengen area, you can still travel, live and work anywhere in the EU but you need to show a passport or national id at the border check. If you are part of the Schengen area, you travel without showing your passport or national id at the border check and you can still work, live or travel freely to another EU member state. The Schengen area just makes it faster to go somewhere because you don't have to show a passport and the most benefit is for the economy of the counties because they can trade faster and lorries don't have to queue for miles at the border to move stuff from one EU country to another EU country

[modmaker]

While I'm in support of Ukraine joining the EU. It will be very difficult to join. Ukraine has to win the war and rebuild which will take a while which will make very difficult for the country to join.

[Drunken_Master]

EU would never accept a new member state with ongoing armed conflict within its territory.

[yhubtfufvcfyfc]

I don't see anyone new being admitted before we get rid of the veto. Hungary and Poland has shown that giving everyone the power to block most important proposals is untenable.

[АлександрФедоренко-бч]

The biggest Ukrainian problem is corruption. Althouht we did a significant steps to combat it, the situation is still far from even the most corrupt countries in EU. The problem is that the old generation still cannot live without it. they were reaised in ussr bureaucracy that simply couldn't function without corruption, so this older generation simply cannot understand how to live otherwise. The situation is changing with the new generation but this is a long and a very slow process

[ieatcrayons]

I really wanted the source for that study comparing time it took between candidacy and accession

[selindenizcebi]

Turkey has started this accession negotiations in 2012 and it’s still continues like a lame duck!!! And I don’t believe that Ukraine will be faster than us… Cause Turkey, as country is 10 times richer and more advanced than Ukraine!!!

[AKAHEIZER]

It's a huge country, for a European country it's a really, really massive country, especially its agricultural potential is outstanding even unchallenged (probably in the world), although it has a large population, that on top is still very poor in comparison.

These are the most significant points that will make the integration a real challenge for the EU.

[Narjoso]

France and several other countries will not allow Eu to expand without significant EU reforms, EU cannot afford another hungary / poland that will hold EU hostage with veto power. The new reforms will be based on majority votes and not veto power.

[jimmeyXD]

It feels like a false promise to me, maybe in 20 years time at best.

[RoniForeva]

Let me help y’all out…its never happening

[asdasdasddgdgdfgdg]

Ukraine is a tragic case because they actually fight and die to become part of the EU but at the same time, numbers dont lie and Ukraine would be a financial bottomless pit so i dont think anyone actually wants them to join. Furthermore Ukraine is demographically dead which only exacerbates the financial burden they would represent.

[zaalf]

As for the military argument, a quick note about the fact that the EU could potentially accept a country with ongoing territorial disputes: the main - and obvious - reason as for why NATO doesn't let in countries fighting wars is because the country, once a member, would have the power to immediately invoke article 5 and force their newfound allies to intervene, but many don't know that the EU itself has a similar defence clause (art. 42.7 TEU), quoting:

"If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States."

which would compel all the EU in a similar way, and possibly escalate the conflict even further. In Cyprus' case, the thing was a bit complicated as Turkey was (and still is) an important NATO ally and an EU candidate (and, as you said, the conflict was frozen at the time), but in Ukraine's case this could turn out significantly different. I think that's also a factor, perhaps more relevant than the martial law.

[chiaraventura]

Ukraine joining EU might cause a lot of Ukrainians leaving Ukraine
Which will create a demographic crisis