Will Serbia, Kosovo or Albania Join the EU Next? | Western Balkans

The EU has been slowly expanding since its birth in 1951. From only six founding members at the heart of Western Europe, to 27 member-states ranging from all across the continent, the Union has grown significantly over the last few decades. The potential members most talked about at the moment can be found in the Western Balkans. While many of these states are eager to join the EU, how likely is their accession? In this video, we take a look at the overall situation in the Western Balkans and how likely we believe they are to join the EU in the near future.

Support the Channel:

Socials:

Relevant Videos:

Resources:

[EUMadeSimple]

Correction: "the prospect of another Hungary, able to shoot down any legislation with their Veto" -> Member States can only VETO in the following areas:
- foreign policy
- fiscal policy
- accession
- international agreements

[FredoRockwell]

I was in Albania a few months ago, and EU flags were EVERYWHERE! I can also testify that the country has come a LONG way since the communists were overthrown in the 90s. I would really like to see it become an EU member sooner rather than later, but I can understand there will be complications. Great video!

[Ashmodai]

By the way: The Euro has been adopted in Kosovo as well, since they had the german Deutsche Mark before and basically had to switch when the Euro was introduced.

[freespiritable]

As an Albanian i don't want to join anymore.

[albevanhanoy]

I think as soon as the VETO system has been reformed into a QMV system, we could expected Montenegro to join within a few years, and Albania and North Macedonia would follow in the next decade.
Bosnia is a little more complicated though. The reforms are not the only thing the country needs, as the situation with Republika Srpska isn't a stable one, and they could end up with another Serbia/Kosovo situation.

[wutheringheights]

Logically, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia should join EU quickly as they are already NATO members, and are aligned to the EU foreign policy. However, if the EU doesn’t act fast for their accession, followed by the other countries, it will lose this region to other rising foreign powers.

[nani_nanika]

The thing with sanctions in serbia's case is that it is very dependent on russia, so they can't basically santion them. It's easy for a rich french or german to say "sanction russia" but for an average serbian this would be a real knockout and would probably reduce even more support for EU membership (sorry for anny grammar mistakes)

[nikolapetrovic]

Serbian membership will never happen.
It is conditioned by recognition of Kosovo and that is something Serbia will never do.
Besides, EU doesn't want us, we don't want the EU.

[srcolesl]

As someone from Serbia I can say EU integration almost stopped being a topic here. After so many false promises and new demands one after another, people simply started feeling like the EU is treating all of us like 7 year old children.
EU keeps talking about some standards, while at the same time not applying those same standards for almost any member. They say you need to fulfill some criteria in democracy and economy, but nobody can make me believe that Bulgaria and Romania were more ready to join in 2007, than Serbia is today. After more than 10 years receiving EU money, there is minimal difference in their economic and democratic development from Serbia. Also, the thesis that the ''EU doesn't want to import problems'' didn't stop Cyprus joining even tho 1/3 of their country is occupied.
So yeah, I understand Serbia is not a pearl of democracy, but it would be nice if we had some real criteria that we need to fulfill instead of them changing all the time. Let's not forget that no other country had to accept an illegal occupation of their territory in order to join EU.
If it was to pure standards in this ranking, Serbia should be on the 1st place. Montenegro is simply getting more political support on closing their chapters because they don't have to deal with problems with Kosovo and completely align with the EU foreign policy, but it would be hard to argue that Montenegro is on a higher economic development level than Serbia, or any other tbh.
So, in conclusion, for me the ideal situation for Serbia in these circumstances is to keep friendly relations with the EU, but not join. I think EU laws and standards are good and that we should implement them no matter whether we can join or not. EU is very important for us, because we are in the middle of Europe and we simply have to cooperate, we cannot isolate ourselves. But it would also be impossible for us to bring ourselves so low to accept some demands that no other country had to, like giving up parts of their territory. So for me an ideal solution for Serbia would be a form of cooperation that EU has with Norway, Switzerland or Iceland.

[moiprofil]

Very informative video and great channel! The presentations are excellent. Which presentation software do you use?

[borislavkovacevic]

Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro should reform, that is true, but without any EU influence or "help". The belief in EU has dropped due large scale of wrong policy and making this our region as EU's stepdoor and "sanitary corridor " where EU is leaving its 5th class of goods and junk food. And for God's sake, stop promoting Russophobia here, it is not going to work!

[europeanlover]

Strategically Montenegro and Albania serve to connect port and coast from Croatia - Greece and are very important so making logistic and strategic decision Albania and Montenegro should join in 2024 ! They are better than some EU nations already

[bilic]

One correction the approval rate only sits at 35% to join in Serbia and it's good you placed us last.

[SerbLawyer]

As a Serb, public support in Serbia is less than 30%

[MrSomervillen]

I think it’ll be in two waves: after the EU adopts QMV, they’ll add Montenegro, Albania, and N Macedonia. Then, a few years later, after some major reconciliation and reform, Serbia, Kosovo, and BH. Probably thereafter, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and (depending on internal political developments) perhaps Turkey.

[imborahey]

I have to fundamentally disagree with the criteria you chose. This simply does not apply for W. Balkan states, since our states are all barely democracies, politicians, who have in most cases been in politics for decades, make decisions, not the people. So the Public support category has no reason to exist. What should instead be considered is their readiness, not just the opened/closed chapters, but the amount of corruption and the readiness of the judicial system to switch to EU laws.

Besides that, ranking Bosnia anywhere above last place is absurd, Bosnia has made basically no progress since the 90s, Republika Srpska blocks everything that Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina suggests, and vice-versa. It has the same problems Serbia and Kosovo do, but all in one, and on steroids. They only just became candidates and have a long and hard road before they even complete the first chapter, let alone join the EU.

I do agree that Montenegro is likely the next member, and that Albania and N. Macedonia are the closer to joining than Serbia and Kosovo.

I also disagree that there is no political support for joining the EU in Serbia right now. Our country only functions because of EU investment and funds, if we were to lose that all of our politicians heads would roll, and they know that. Yes, our government and people have many pro-Russian inclinations, but no one in their right mind would dispute the fact that we are dependent on the will of the EU, not Russia.

Until recently our government had full support from the EU to maintain the status quo in Kosovo, at least until the Russian invasion of Ukraine, now that the EUs priorities in the Balkans have shifted from "Stable instability" to the absolute removal of Russian influence, the status quo won't do anymore, and that's why you're seeing more of Serbia in the news lately. There is no more pro-Russian propaganda/sentiment (except maybe Wagner group recruitment, but our government is actively fighting against our people joining either side) in Serbia since the war, if anything, there is noticeably less. The only times I hear Russia mentioned on pro-government media nowadays is when Vucic says something about maybe-maybe-not implementing sanctions on Russia. Heck, I don't even remember when's the last time I saw Putin presented as pro-Serbian in any of the pro-government "news sources"

[eloimorgan]

I mostly agree with the list, except I would change Albania's and North Macedonia's places. North Macedonia's veto might be raised again since they again show toxic behavior towards people recognizing themselves as Bulgarians and not complying with the contract they signed regarding their history and relations with Bulgaria. Albania, on the other hand, is more consistent on the EU accession road. Not to mention, the first-ever summit between the EU and the Western Balkans leaders took place in Tirana, Albania.

[geheimnis]

Will there be any veto reform soon? I absolutely hate the veto thing that we have, it's nonsense

[mir]

No one joins, no one cares. Who do You think U are EU

[Andreas_L_Pedersen]

The EU should not expand before the VETO vote has been reformed.