GWR Ed 51 (Part 1): Extreme Heat, Fire, Flood Affecting Various Parts of The World/UK Polar Opposite

Thanks for clicking onto the 51st edition (PART 1) of the GLOBAL WEATHER & CLIMATE REPORT for your weekly look back at the world's weather extremes!

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[Self-improvement]

So far July has been around average however predicting this autumn and winter will be very tough. June was very hot therefore there is a correlation with hot Junes and cold Decembers, something to watch. August will probably be warmer than normal, especially in the second half of the month however September will probably also start pretty warm before cooling down. El Nino will also have a effect on autumn/winter, strong El Nino cause very warm wet weather however most studies show that El Nino will not be as powerful as everyone is saying and that a El Nino modoki is very likely to develop, last seen in winter 2009/10. Very interesting.
El Nino is known for causing mild start to winters and Novembers but cold ends to winters however if the El Nino modoki does develop then there will be a higher chance of a snowy cold winter. Most people think El Nino cause mild winters but that is usually only the case in powerful el ninos. If you look at the Atlantic then you will see that a tripole is developing however it is only July so we cant truly predict if a proper tripole will develop. I think it will. The qbo is also set to turn easterly in autumn which will cause higher potential for cold winters and can disrupt the jet stream possibly causing a polar outbreaks. It is too early to say what nao will be but there is a chance it will be slightly negative so watch out for that. Of course we are going to be approaching the solar maximum in 1 or 2 years so that will also be something to look at.
Very interesting autumn/winter likely
Comment your thoughts.

[aviationlover]

Been absolute awful all weekend here in NW England been none stop raining today and my garden so flooded never seen it so flooded

[_Shinasu]

I did see that scientists were mulling with the idea that shipping fuel had sulfur banned from being in the fuel for being a harm for the environment and the ozone in the last 2 years, it also reflects heat back into space. So it could be possible that the 86% reduction in sulfur from shipping fuel could be heating the water more than it did before because of this.

[Robcomments]

These extreme heat conditions is turning woodlands into fires which is only pumping even more Energy into the climate which will only intensify local weather conditions for everyone in the years to come. Exxon in the 1980 spent millions of their profits on their own investigation on the climate/weather and concluded more extreme weather events is highly around the planet. The last decade we are seeing it play out. UK should be more concern about extreme winter conditions as it takes more energy to cool down than it does to get hot. All these people having their holidays interrupted makes all these climate protestor interruptions nothing compared to the rescue effects getting people back home now.!!! Lets just hope they don't bring that hot weather back with them.!!!

[joycevogan]

Thanks Mark very interesting as always x mum

[stewartbunting]

Thanks Mark for the video, I found it very interesting and informative as always. It's been some weeks now with the jet stream sitting relatively far south acting as a barrier between the high pressure system over southern Europe and North Africa and the low pressure in the UK, in the UK where situated on the cold side of the jet stream which has been responsible for allowing these low pressure systems to move into the UK and Ireland from off the North Atlantic Ocean.

[davidsparkle]

Hi Mark BBC Country file just suggested that the UK is getting drier and there's an increased risk of wildfires..but according your met offic data the UK has had more rain in the last 30years?

[stopthatluca]

I lean towards the natural-cyclical point of view

[peterlewis]

Heatwave ? I recon North Wales is biting at the heels of Northern India, and their regular as clockwork Monsoon.
Summer has well and truly disappeared until next year, Autumnal weather, and biblical rain has taken over

My heart goes out to the poor holiday makers,
I can hear they saying it now, were not holidaying in Wales again, it always rains.

Not always, but its rather moist here in N Wales

Any clement weather on its way Mr Vogan, it would be much appreciated