Would America Really Defend Taiwan?

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Audio editing by Eric Schneider
Motion graphics by Vincent de Langen
Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
Writing & Direction by Evan

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Video supplied by Getty Images
Maps provided by MapTiler/OpenStreetMap Contributors and GEOlayers 3
Select footage from the AP Archive

[bodilsoldeberg]

It amazes me that Taiwan managed to keep a hold of these islands so close to the mainland

[leeswecho]

The peace is maintained by "being ambiguous enough that both sides can interpret the terms optimistically enough to their satisfaction".

That is a beautiful single-sentence explanation to a very complex topic, thank you so much for this channel.

[Browncheesboi]

"Sleepy villages" "100K people"
Wild to hear as a Norwegian.

[svkdzoy]

It's a good day when both Real life lore and PolyMatter upload!

[MrHistory]

PolyMatter and Real Life Lore making China related videos on the same day? It’s definitely a good morning.

[KC_GS]

This is one of the best videos on the geopolitics of the China-Taiwan conflict I’ve ever seen. It summarizes and delivers neatly what think-tanks and academics have been saying on this issue for the past year or two, but through a much more accessible medium. Thank you PolyMatter!

[Blastoise]

Watching this immediately after Real Life Lore’s video is a trip. Seems there’s a lot weighing on China these days. Either way, looking forward to this one.

[JosephSolisAlcaydeAlberici]

China has to deploy at least one million soldiers to invade Taiwan in a naval amphibious invasion that would make the 1944 Normandy invasion look like a milder one.

[Endromek]

As a Chinese born American, thank you poly matter to bringing this issue to our eyes. You have such a rich perspective telling these amazing stories! Keep on going!

[glorioustigereye]

Journalists: Taiwan Issue?
US: Schrodinger's cat
Journalists: Understandable, have a nice day.

[arnaudcampagne]

One of the most well-developed answers I've ever heard on a particularly complex subject! Thank you PolyMatter

[mazelme]

"If I'm curt with you, it's because time is a factor."

[avilancer]

I think South Korea and Japan will prompt USA to oppose China's potential unilateral changes to the status quo. Otherwise, USA might as well say goodbye to their dominance in the Pacific.

[zuruumi]

I don't think the clarification is meaningless. There are several possible scenarios of the war. China getting fait accompli before the US reacts, the US being not willing to fight, the US being unable to stop China despite the fighting, a costly war without significant gains, and of course disastrous defeat of China. The clarification makes it a bit more likely that the US will fight, which also means a higher chance of negative results.

China will never have a 100% chance of a clean and cheap win, but there is bound to be a point where the potential gains clearly outweigh the risk and by every ship China builds and every piece of new gear the soldiers get this point is getting closer. The US has to make sure the risk is still high enough. Strengthening the navy, selling weapons to Taiwan, moving more forces into the region, international treaties and higher public commitment all make the risks of initiating the attack higher.

[kevinliang]

thanks for sharing objective information. as chinese background living in australia, taiwanese people are one of the most kindness and gentle people i ever came across. fingers cross there is no war between china and taiwan

[yuyutubee]

I cringe at the number of YouTubers who assume that U.S. intelligence hasn't already thought through every possible scenario offered in these admonishing videos. Johnny Harris does the same thing constantly. This is the same U.S. intelligence community that accurately predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022, not the intelligence community that spectacularly failed to predict the outcome of the Iraq and Afghan wars 20 years ago.

[flyingbicycles]

If I remember properly, China’s strategy is cultural and economic integration in Taiwan, which would cause the island to join them willingly. This attains’s China’s optimal solution without breaking the peaceful status quo. But they simultaneously need to make Taiwan uncomfortable enough to not seek independence. Tricky.

As things are, China’s approach is long term at best. The environment just isn’t right for unification. I think a few things would need to happen for Taiwan to even consider it
1) a major disaster (like an earthquake) or economic depression cripples the Taiwanese economy
2) the current leadership totally botches the response, making problems worse
- this means both businesses and people are upset
3) China’s economy is in really good shape
4) the USA doesn’t help Taiwan recover

With sufficient cultural integration, this may create at least a unification movement within Taiwan. Essentially, things start to suck really badly, the government is making it worse, and the USA plays hands off. That may lead people to China’s open arms, so long as they sign away sovereignty.

But that’s a pretty long shot

[gtbkts]

Thanks for the awesome content and great videos!

[willywonka]

9:09 I love the view of rural Taiwan. Every time I visited the island this is the view from the High Speed Rail 🚈 😅

[MOBXOJ]

I cannot express how fast seeing you upload put a smile on my face