Numerical Modelling applied to Weather Prediction... - Buizza - Workshop 1 - CEB T3 2019

Buizza (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy) / 10.10.2019

Numerical Modelling applied to Weather Prediction and Climate Studies

Numerical
models of the Earth-system are essential tools to understand how the
system evolved and will evolve in the future. This is true whether we
are aiming to understand and predict the time evolution of weather
patterns, or to estimate how the past climate changed and which way the
future climate could evolve.

Advances
in the models’ formulation in the past decades, among which the
adoption of more sophisticated data-assimilation methods and the
paradigm shift from single to ensemble forecasts, have made it possible
to extend the forecast skill horizon for weather prediction. Together
with model improvements, the introduction of stochastic terms in the
numerical model equations has led to more accurate and reliable
simulations. In climate studies, the application of data-assimilation
methods to past data has allowed us to reconstruct the evolution of the
past climate, and ensembles of projects allow us to estimate how the
future Earth climate will look like, under a range of emission scenarii.

Weather
and climate needs have led, in the past decade, to an increasing
convergence between the models used for weather prediction and for
climate studies, and this has generated benefits for both communities.
Indeed, the fact that the same ‘model’ is used over the different time
scales, have forced developers to apply more thorough quality controls,
with the end result being more accurate and reliable simulations.
Improvements developed by one community have brought benefits to both.

During
my seminar, I will briefly illustrate what is a numerical model of the
Earth-system and how they are initialized to generate a weather
forecast, and I will illustrate open challenges on which people are
working on. I will also discuss how the same model can be used to
reconstruct the past climate, and generate future climate scenario.

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Langue : Anglais; Date : 10.10.2019; Conférencier : Buizza, Roberto; Évenement : Workshop 1 - CEB T3 2019; Lieu : IHP; Mots Clés :