Housing Market Forecast 2022

We have seen a big surge in house prices recently, so in this video, I take a look at what's been happening with the housing market globally and drill down into what has been driving prices higher. I then take a look at what's on the horizon that could cause house prices to crash and end with a more detailed house price forecast for three regions: the UK, US & Australia.

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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:11 What Has Driven Prices Higher?
06:51 What May Drive House Prices Lower?
09:23 Forecasting Model & UK House Price Forecast
11:56 US House Price Forecast
12:48 Australian House Price Forecast
13:48 Conclusion

#HousePrices #Forecast #PensionCraft

[sidkings]

I think help to buy has skewed house prices alot. Especially in London.

[Msyear]

In UK, the current interest rate for student loan is much higher than that for mortgage :-(

[bobrew]

I have been hearing about this big property price crash for 10 years and it has not happened yet!

[juansouto]

6.3% decline over 3 years does not mean a decline of over 20%, but rather a bit under 18%. Compounding works the other way when one is talking about declines 🙂

[thomasmarkovitch]

Thanks Ramin. When you considered the long term house price growth, you mention you usually consider equity a better investment. I do to for lots of reasons, particularly liquidity/its hassle free nature. However, a fair comparison should include imputed rents (minus some upkeep & mgmt costs) otherwise it’s akin to excluding dividends from an equity index. I wonder if anyone has attempted to do this - I’d love you to do the research if not 😉! A back of an envelope rental yield assumption of 2.6%( puts around about dimson and marsh long term 100 year historical real equity yield (5.1% I believe) & I hypothesise the rental yield would be higher. (This analysis also excludes it’s the only way for the common man to get relatively cheap access to debt which I’d argue had some additional benefit)!

[Sean-]

Thanks Ramin, I appreciate this analysis as I’m working towards getting on the housing ladder next year! Fingers crossed they come down a bit!! 😅

[chansermish]

what does a hid wind or win mean in house prices as stated on his video?? on time 2:53

[mow]

Hi Ramin, your video/presentation is always top notch. Do you mind telling me that software you are using especially the mouse pointer

[kevocos]

Great technical analysis.
One point I'd make though is how does anyone benefit from modelling that uses 'averages' in a market where prices are so skewed geographically? And this isn't not directed at Ramins great work in particular!

The 'average' UK house price is garnered from the price of a £30m Knightsbridge apartment, a £36k terrace in Grimsby and everything in between.
The modelling only forecasts how the 'average' may move but where do we specifically observed, and ultimately profit from this analysis? Where exactly do you bet on the 'average' house?

[ianworthington]

Thanks Ramin, interesting. Do you have the code for your models publicly available? I'd like to see what they predict for European countries.

[webyt]

Zillow divestment may be telling. Nice work again Ramin.

[RM-fbmx]

Great video! Would appreciate a chart or comment on Canadian forecast for house prices - best/central/worst scenario.

[matthewukiwa]

About the only channel that make real world investment sense thanks, but how do we know the models used for the forecast are reliable and also shall we look at prices in the next 3 years and see how the models compared ? thanks

[jooky]

Please do a video explaining the difference between Canada and the US housing market

[unixspice]

Would love to see these figures for NZ .

[bartwaggoner]

Great video and reasoning, only your assumptions that US inflation stats are not cooked, and rates will rise, are not likely valid. Inflation in US, if measured as it was in 1980, is 15%. And given the US debt, rates can never rise meaningfully.

[hugobuss]

I've been looking about for a house for the last year and have been put off a lot by the high prices. I honestly believe they are being stoked up by estate agents tactics and the government mishandling, but in reality little has changed, thousands of people haven't sprung from the ground with bags of money wanting houses. in fact, sadly, we have lost many people. I went to view a house last week and was told by the estate agent they have 40 viewings that weekend, disheartened I didn't even bother putting in an offer. I just checked and 7 days later the house is still on the market. there is a lot of fud and fomo in the housing market.

[CaseyBurnsInvesting]

I doubt the US will only see a 2% rise in home prices. My home price is up nearly 30% since I bought in 2018.

[battmarn]

Purely selfishly, I'm still hoping for a house price crash

[PresidentGas]

6:11 the main reason for savings rise in the US was the mortgage payment forbearance in which people simply stopped paying their mortgage. Over 7.6 million borrowers took advantage of that which amounted to 15% of all mortgage holders. There are still 1.25 million borrowers in forbearance plans as of last month. I personally stopped paying my mortgage in Feb. 2020 and never paid it again up until the time I sold my house in July 2021. I was able to save quite a bit of money doing that and since I was already planning to sell before the pandemic hit .... it worked out perfectly for me.