Russia's war economy is unsustainable

Many people assume that Russia has endless resources and can continue the war forever, but that is a misunderstanding. In this video I discuss the Russian wartime economy, and why we are approaching a tipping point where it will be harder for Russia to sustain the war.

0:00 Budanov's statement
1:09 "Russia's endless resources"
1:30 Wartime economies
2:51 Drivers of inflation
5:48 An unsustainable way to run an army
6:58 Approaching the tipping point
7:36 Sanctions are working
8:06 Depleted military stockpiles
10:24 Political will in the West

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Look at @CovertCabal for good OSINT rundowns of Russia's remaining stocks of equipment.

[konstantinlozev]

Military salary doubles => Survivability on the front halves
Everything balances
👌👌👌

[moffig]

This was very well explained. Im from Germany and I wish content like this would be shown here repeatedly since many people here think that Russia is guaranteed to win and is undefeatable with virtually infinite ressources. We need to educate and inform the western populations about these topics and be realistic and pragmatic. Ukraine can win but it will take at the very least 1, 5 or 2 years more of strong support. We can afford this. The alternative, a russian victory, would cost us all much more

[TelB]

Another superb video. Honestly, Anders, you are a terrific presenter. Thank you so much for the depth, and entertainment too, of your presentations.

[darshanaiyengar]

Highly refreshing to see insightful and balanced commentary without distracting animation and videos. Subscribed.

[EUMikkel]

This is why its so important to commit to long term investments in the Ukrainian defence industry. Putin will only negotiate in good faith when he knows he cannot win!

[SRFriso]

Rule 1 of war: Don't pick a fight with countries who are richer than you.
Rule 2 if war: Don't pick a fight with countries whose friends are richer than you.

[richardburgess]

Consistently high quality information. Thank you, Anders.

[Puleczech]

I mean, if anyone seriously believes that 1) Russia's economy is fine, let alone booming 2) Russia can sustain this forever and 3) Russia can never lose, they should not be journalists because they lack elemental critical thinking.

[terencedonohoe]

Very sensible analysis. Lots of bots trying to persuade western audiences to abandon Ukraine, Russia has too much resource etc. Even Their revised budget increasing 20+% again is all about convincing people they have no intention to stop until Ukraine falls. They can and will keep going (Putin has no other option) but they will inevitably collapse at some point. West strategy should be to protect Ukraine and save as many lives until that day. They could be doing much more in that respect

[daiakunin]

“There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.” ― Sun Tzu. Russia is learning this lesson the hard way.

[chriscottrell]

This is a remarkable and invaluable overview of the fundamentals of the war.
The situation is explained in a calm, rational, and lucid manner by a professional military analyst.
Upvoted and subscribed - thank you Anders Puck Nielsen !

[larsclausen]

Factors driving Russia’s inflation:
4) sanctions regime reduces supply, being massively outstripped by demand.
5) price hikes for logistics
6) massive increases in taxes (companies need the increase prices to keep profitable)
7) exchange rate collapse of the Ruble, further escalating price hikes for industry and consumer business.

[DaveHalsall]

I love your insights! Keep up the great work!

[danielpaschjr]

To those that feel that Ukraine should just surrender and agree to Russia's terms I ask this; why should Ukraine and it's citizens, who were invaded without provocation by Russia, just agree to throw away their country without gain and give up any hope of joining the EU and NATO? Why should they give up their aspirations to be more prosperous and secure? If this happened to your country would you be able or willing to do such a thing?

Joel

[abcd-evjg]

The situation in Russia is like that guy who jumped from a skyscraper. When he reached the 50th floor, he was asked from a window how everything was going. He replied that so far, everything was fine.

[Josephtimothyq]

What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio..

[TheSlazzer]

I think Western countries have a moral obligation to help Ukraine defend itself. This is a very clear-cut case of one country invading another country.

This is even reinforced by having to send a message to other potential aggressors around the world - that not respecting countries' borders has a very very high price.

This is even more reinforced by the fact that this invasion - and the war since 2014 - could be seen as Putin "punishing" Ukraine for choosing a freedom-outlook. It's imperialism. We must support freedom-loving people. The Ukrainians are fighting their war of emancipation from Russian imperialism.

- All those reasons apart - there are also more "selfish" and pragmatic reasons to support Ukraine so they win - or at least don't lose - the war (Remember that in a real sense, in war, noone wins):

Russia has been and continues to lose much of it's military and industrial power, significantly lowering the potential for future wars. Every Euro and Dollar spend on Ukraine will have to be spent less on defense in the long term (potential peace dividend).

We must therefore see that Ukraine is fighting "the good fight". Rarely has there been a more clear-cut case between "good" and "evil". The West is benefiting from them fighting on. We have to support them much more - to save Ukrainian lives and to send a message to fascists like Putin all across the world.

[benprovan]

You left out a very important driver up inflation, which is exchange rates, particularly with the Chinese yuan. Russia is running out of foreign currencies and can only pay China in yuan and not ruples. This drives up the exchange rate with the yuan, which in turn supercharges inflation

[karlkristjantiivel]

More people in the West need to listen to this!

[neilbadger]

Though it was predicted that Russia would last until early 2026, we also need to factor in the recent Russian firework displays that are being held at the different military storage facilities.