Forecasting (14): Holt Winters' method

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This video explains the concept of Holt Winters' method for forecasting and demonstrates an example using excel.
See a different approach to estimate initial values in Holt-Winter's forecasting model
#HoltWinters #forecasting #exponentialsmoothing #researchHUB
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Published paper using forecasting methods:
(1) State-space model for container freight rate forecasting
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[shinerajukappil]

Dear sir, u have mentioned that u missed to add constraints in solver to optimise the parameters. So does that affected the minimised values that given in the results.

[johtinann]

when calculating the Yt+1 at the first, why we use the St value from last year's Feburary instead of January?

[RakeshKumar-wcng]

Dear Researcher, while initializing the Trend component, should not be multiple by Beta value as well?

[chinomnsodaniel]

I really need to do all this using spss

[memoonazahidi]

or can we add another factor except seasion, trend, and level?in order to modify the model...who's factor we can use?kindly suggest me the 4th factor please

[TheDarkhorse]

I have data that is very trend oriented to where the seasonality at the beginning of the year is always higher than at the end of the year. The issue, is that in the forecast period, the future, this causes a spike at the start of each year far beyond what is reasonable. Is there some way to moderate this effect? In the test data, this effect is moderated by the level which automatically adjusts to a realistic amount. However, in the forecast period there is no level moderation to moderate it. How can we resolve this?

Also, it would also seem that the trend and the seasonality of the data are overcompensating for the trend by double counting it.

[simoneveggio]

Dear researcher,

what about values where denominator is null?!?!?

For example, what if my 1st period real demand is null, thus forcing S1 equal to 0? What value do I have to assume as initializing L13 (as #DIV/0! unfortunately does not help my forecasting process) ?

What if my 12th period demand is null, thus my S12 is equal to 0, thus my T13 is equal to D(13) - #DIV/0! ?

I've forced a IFERROR where a #DIV/0! will be substituted automatically by a 0, but I'm not that sure is the only and whenever valid solution.

Thanks

[JoeJoe-tfuj]

Thank you for the great video! I have a question. How to initiate st when use additive method?

[florianewers]

Thank you very much for your superior video. I now understand the calculation a lot better. I have one problem though: If i compare your calc with the builtin excel forecast function the forecast func will give me completely different results for the future. Even if i use the a b and c excel used. Does excel not use ETS?? Or is it using a different formula??

[ashutoshchavan]

Can I get any simple sample code for holt winters for forecasting time series in python?

[memoonazahidi]

how can we modify holt winter moder by adding weighted function or by intercept term?kindly guide me

[marcibelasky]

how do I know that the fluctation is high enough?

[chinomnsodaniel]

Sir, please can I reach you directly.

[abdulazizalsakkar]

What interpretation can we make from gamma's optimal value being 0 ?

[syedimranali]

Hi. Can you make some video on social media data analytics