What is Expected Value in Poker?

GTO Wizard helps you to learn GTO and analyze your game.

Do you understand Expected Value (EV) when it comes to poker? 🤔 Join Tombos21 as he explains how EV drives every decision at the table and teaches you to effectively analyze it in your own games.

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What is Expected Value in Poker?

0:00 Intro
1:00 Formula
1:17 Dice Example
2:17 Shoving The Nuts
2:49 Calling a Shove
3:36 Shoving AKo Preflop
8:17 Final Table Deal
9:31 Implied Odds
12:16 Decomposition
14:35 Combining Probabilities
16:14 Completing The Table
18:58 Testing Your Intuition
22:05 Summary

#GTOWizard #GTO #poker

[GTOWizard]

Admit it, how many years have you played poker before understanding EV?

[seanquinlan]

It would be great if gto wizard could showed the decomposition of ev in the UI - knowing how much of the ev of a given bet comes from villain folding seems rather useful!

[thedspenguin]

regarding the 75s example... I was under the impression that GTO Wizard's opening ranges and corresponding data for each hand already took into account the blockers. meaning, it was already taking into account that those 2 cards are out of the deck and readjusting from 1326 possible combos to 1225.

[Serebity]

Is there any chance to get an excell with the ev charts (when get folds/called/raised from all opening positions).I liked the video, but the 65s example made great sense, considering that I play live loose passive 9 handed games sometimes.If by any chance you have some worksheet that you generated when making the video, pls share(I hope this is the case because I saw the level of determination you are willing to go in the PLOvsHOLDEM video you made with joey 😊). Thanks

[FCarraro]

14:12 I have an issue with this calculation: you would multiply the three probabilities if those events were independent.

BUT, SB folds 83% just in case it comes to that node, which is just the 79% times BU folds. So, shouldn't SB fold frequency be (0.79*083)? And shouldn't BB ff be 0.79*0.83*0.58?

[JanosTCG]

At the final table deal how exactly did you get the probability numbers?
I understand the calculation, but i wouldnt be able to find the probability numbers myself?

[viniciuscollaco]

There's a way to see the blocker effect on GTOw PF? To see the percentage?

[davidecaramia]

How to calculate fold% call% 3bet% of other players considering blockers ? Counting every combo we block looks like a long process, maybe there's a shortcut ?

[Julu]

in the spirit of this video I tried to calculate EV of a punt I did the other day in a live game. Long story short, on the river my recreational opponent bets 65 into 150 (I'm IP with 260 behind), board T87 6 3 (any 9 is a straight, J9 nuts). Me holding Q9 I decided to shove 260 into 215 hoping to get folds from 9x about 25% of the time. without getting into much detail I assumed his range is 51c of 9x of which is 8.5c of J9.

So here's what I got:
Fold, win = ($215 x .25) = +53.75
Call, chop = ($0 x .55) = 0
Call, lose = (-260 x .2) = -52
EV = +1.75

Now I know there're a lot of assumptions about combos and frequencies. But I just wanted to ask if my EV formula for these outcomes is correct.

[daurenn]

9:57 first off, when we put a minus sign in a formula like this we should put extra parentheses before the minus sign. Secondly, the answer in this example should be M=26, isn't it?

[VyNguyen-whxq]

Your EV(shove) formula at 6:50 has a typo, the (200*.2) supposed to be (101.5*.2). At 7:30 Your EV(shove) formula said to multiple everything out, I think you meant to put the add symbol not the times symbol.
The formula to figure out M when set EV(call) to zero, I got -26bb not 24bb. Even taken in absolute value, it's different answers. Can you explain this part?
Using the implied odds formula to find M, which M=((Lose%*Lose$)/win%)-win$ gives the wrong answer unless you plus Win$ at the end. So if I change the formula to M=((Lose% * Lose$)/win%)+ win$, then I get the same answer as EV(call) = 0 and solved for M, which in this case still result in a -26bb.

I didn't check the math on the rest of the video, but the concepts and contents are Superb. Thank you.

[erronblack]

6:57 Shouldn't that be 101.5 instead of 200?

[owenkeith]

Why is the actual math you are showing taking up less space on the screen than the AI generated crap images. This would be 100% more watchable for me if you just removed the AI shit completely and just had the math.

[goranhrkman]

Are you allowed to use a calculator when sitting at a live table? lol I don´t understand any of this stuff but still I am a winning player. The most important thing when playing poker if you want to be successful, is knowing your opponents. If your opponents are nits, shove more. If opponents are lags, be careful what you are shoving with. You have the nuts? Then shove more against these players. Variance in poker is a bit*h so no need to try calculating EV.