How To Calculate Expected Value

Expected value sports betting - all you need to know.

The Expected Value (EV) of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet.

As such, it is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when comparing sportsbooks’ odds.

This video will explain how to calculate Expected Value in sports betting in order to predict your winnings, including the expected value formula and running through a real example to illustrate this in practice.

[Dalowkey]

First time someone easily explained! Good vid

[TL]

Thanks for the video. Made it easy to calculate. For probability, should we use the books odds or is it more accurate to take out the vig/juice first to get true odds?

[markchapman]

Simpler way is just knowing your percentages off by heart. If believing a horse / team has a 25% chance of winning then it is a fair 3/1 (4.0) chance. Therefore if getting better than those odds (plus a small margin for error) then it is a good bet, So in this case 4/1 (5.0) 20% is a good bet. I can also see how much value is believed in the bet by subtracting 20 from 25.

[tcabroncos]

how can the ravens and browns both have over 50% probability of winning?

[mikemac]

question: you picked to bet on Ravens. is there a chance that if you bet Browns it would turn out positive?

[cm]

I tried to calculate the EV on some matches and I just can't find any bet with positive EV...

[robertriebel]

Can't use the book lines, you need to develop your own model.

[J.A.M.I.L]

Why can’t someone create a calculator for ev because this shit is annoying

[TL]

Is Ev supposed to always be equal for both bets? Also, how is there supposed to be value in a bet, if you are using the odds themselves to calculate the probability ? Isn’t Ev as simple as positive comparison between a projected probability vs the books implied probability?