#102–Michael Osterholm, PhD: COVID-19—Challenges ahead & reasons for optimism and concern

Full title: #102 – Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

In this episode, Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and author of Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, provides an overview on the COVID-19 pandemic in regards to what has happened to date, what we’ve learned about how the disease spreads, and his optimism and pessimism about what potentially lies ahead. Michael gives his take on the true case fatality rate, why it differs around the world, and which underlying conditions, such as obesity, impact risk of severe illness and death. We also discuss the outlook regarding vaccines, repurposed drugs/antivirals for treatment, and Michael’s growing concern about supply chain limitations with respect to drugs, vaccines, n95 masks, and testing kits.

We discuss:
-Recapping the brief history of COVID-19 and what potentially lies ahead [2:15];
-Some positive news about immunity and reinfection [10:45];
-Case fatality rate—the challenge in finding the true rate, difference by country, and the impact of age, underlying conditions, and obesity [13:00];
-What has to be true for less than 100,000 Americans to die from COVID-19? [24:30];
-How do we best protect healthcare workers? [29:45];
-Concerns about testing capability—reagent shortfall and a supply chain problem [39:30];
-Vaccines and antivirals—The outlook, timing, and challenges [47:45];
-Long term health of survivors of COVID-19 [56:45];
-The impact of comorbidities—Diabetes, obesity, and immunosuppressed patients [59:30];
-Understanding R0 and how the disease spreads [1:01:30];
-The challenge of forecasting with so many unknowns [1:08:00];
-What explains the difference in cases and fatalities in different parts of the world? [1:14:30];
-Repurposed drugs/antivirals being considered for treatment options—any optimism? [1:16:45];
-A parting message from Michael about what lies ahead [1:18:30]; and
-More.

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About:

The Peter Attia Drive is a weekly, ultra-deep-dive podcast focusing on maximizing health, longevity, critical thinking…and a few other things. With over 30 million episodes downloaded, it features topics including fasting, ketosis, Alzheimer’s disease, cancer, mental health, and much more.

Peter is a physician focusing on the applied science of longevity. His practice deals extensively with nutritional interventions, exercise physiology, sleep physiology, emotional and mental health, and pharmacology to increase lifespan (delay the onset of chronic disease), while simultaneously improving healthspan (quality of life).

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[elinog]

I loved to watch Dr Michael Osterholm on Joe’s podcast. So happy for this follow up.
You’re the best Dr Peter Attia.
Thank you again Dr Michael Osterholm.

[AnnushkaHal]

Dr. Osterholm, your ability to stay focused and calm, given you're more aware of this catastrophe than anyone else, is admirable. Thank you so much for this interview!

[MF-zcuo]

This is an extraordinary interview. Osterholm is very knowledgeable, insightful and straight-talking; Attia is an exemplary interviewer: bringing his own prodigious medical knowledge to help formulate insightful and penetrating questions. Superb. Haven't heard anything close to this interview on all mainstream media.

[glenspardello]

Above the fray facts. Has been right every step of the way. Enormous amounts of integrity, this is is a public service. Thanks for putting this out there.

[rkurniati]

I trust Michael Osterholm the most on covid-19 related matter.
Please invite him back, do it regularly if possible. I'd rather know the bad news than being duped with a false sense of security or false hope.

[YinzerYan]

Thank you for the level-headed discussion. Much needed!

[bethjohnson]

Osterholm is extremely knowledgeable, Attia is incredibly articulate. Was really worth watching and I learned a lot

[ubckcxw]

Dr. Michael Osterholm has worked tirelessly throughout this pandemic to provide Americans with clear, direct and accurate information. He has said repeatedly that "we need a plan". Now we just need the leadership that can put a plan into effect!

[doggdominom.d.]

This was VERY difficult to listen to but VERY important. Wow. Thank you both for this. Very important.

[IC-vdig]

Thank you so much for this interview and all your work, extremely informative, to the point, scientific and rational. Been following Michael Osterholm since seeing him on Joe Rogan, he is the only one I seek information from now. What a brilliant scientist, and so glad I found your amazing channel through searching his work. Will share it as much as possible, people need real information, hard science but also an emotional support and you deliver in spades. Thank you again, so very much.

[AnomadAlaska]

This is "content". Two good plain spoken Docs together. My take away? Stay at home. We have the power to squash this if we do it. The government measures can't do jack.

[enjoyingthejourney]

What a fantastic Interview! During this time where is A LOT of information and many panic driven interviews, this clear rational and informative interview is a breath of fresh air. And great moderation skills by attia! Well down! Thank you!

[rchiu]

I really think US people should seriously take a look at what some Asia societies are doing. Here in Hong Kong, we have it under control much better than New York. We are one of the most densely populated places in the world. We are close to the first epicenter of the outbreak. We have got infected cases much earlier than New York. Yet we only have a tiny fraction of NY's cases and deaths (our population is about 40% of NY). I believe one major reason is that we are very serious about wearing masks.

[FilamentFriday]

It’s been 3 weeks. Can you get him on again?

[AZWings]

If only the government would be straight with us, the people. We can handle the truth. Stop sugar coating it and stop lying.
Great interview, Peter. Thanks very much. Dr. Osterholm is such an invaluable source of knowledge.

[adilawri]

I hate that this guy keeps being right.

[popland]

Where I work, I'm potentially being forced to work. I have asthma, I'm scared to my core.

[ColdIce]

Why the hell trump doesn't put this guy in charge I don't know. Literally let's just do everything he says. WTF

[Sophal]

Very interesing discussion. Obesity, blood pressure, T2D, heart problems, are risk factors for covid19. the elephant in the room is the metabolic syndrome. What is the role of insuline resistance and chronic inflammation on the immune system and the inflammatory response ? Is everybody should go keto ?

[qigong]

World War II when we were attacked we initiated the most massive manufacturing build up in the history of the world. On both sides. Sophisticated weaponry, rockets were being developed by Germans, nuclear weapons. Now we can’t even build machines to make masks. We can’t set up a pharmaceutical plant? We don’t need to reinvent the wheel with building these machines for masks, we just need leadership that can assemble and motivate all the millions of excess engineers that we have to actually do it!