Horse Racing Tips | How to Win by Betting on Favourites

If you are betting on horse racing, you have probably been given a tip at some point, perhaps on the favourite.

I've always been fascinated by why favourites get so much attention in horse racing. Whenever people are betting or look at some betting strategy, it nearly always talks about the favourite in a horse race.

However, things are not as straightforward as you would expect with a favourite in horse racing.

A regular betting market is distorted by the interest in the favourite, and you can get false favourites.

So, in this video, I examine what chance a favourite has of winning a race, how you can calculate this and what key information you need to know to get a long-term winning betting strategy on favourites in Horse Races.

If you are a Betfair Trading, carefully think about this information. Understanding how a market is priced and why will give you a much deeper understanding of how it trades or may trade.

Betting activity tends to drive the underlying market, so anticipating that betting activity will help you become a better Betfair trader as well!

But curiously, being a Betfair trader may help you find value or get a positive expectancy by getting great value odds when betting and beating the closing line.

But please remember not to mix betting and trading. Also make sure you fully understand the risks involved: -

Download a free trial of Bet Angel at our website: -

Odds Convertor:-

Enjoy!

00:00 - Introduction
00:45 - My favourite betting strategies on Horse Racing
02:08 - Why do only 1/3rd of Favourites win?
02:44 - Decimal and Fractional odds when betting on Horse Racing
05:08 - What happened when we bet £100 on each favourite in 2023
07:34 - How I use a special staking method when I bet on Favourites
10:10 - What's the most crucial tip when betting on Favourites?
12:32 - Summary & Conclusion

#betting #horseracing #sportsbetting

[betangeltv]

One thing I should have mentioned in the video is to ensure you always consider frictional costs, such as commission. You will need to beat that to be profitable.

[hernandotorres]

The more I watch these videos, the more important they become to me. These days, most of them align with my thinking and act as additional confirmation, but occasionally there will be a discrepancy. The videos which appear at odds with my view are invaluable, leading to furious investigation into why there is a discrepancy and what, if anything, I can do about it. It is astonishing just how much depth there is in sports betting and trading.

[Marraboy]

Best video on betting that Peter, well explained, some people say don't bet favourites but why not😉

[mastereva]

What about taking a bigger price in play? Often I see the fav drift out wild then crash back in and win the race.

[markhorrocks]

A very good video indeed. I love backing at higher odds on favourites in-play ( rare to get past decimal odds 5.0 in-play that win ).

[xjamiex]

I tried laying the favourite when I started using the exchange, it does work & the 1/3 strike rate is accurate, the problem I had was that I would loose the profit id just made after one loss & kept braking even

[benmyers]

I have a betting system made in 2002 which consistently runs at around a 50% hits rate and the staking system on that is to start with a bank of £1000, stake £50 each time until you reach over £1000 to which you would then stake 2% of your bank regardless of the horses’ price. It actually works very well but this approach is pretty interesting so I might give it a try…

[zimkitch]

That's gonna need another watch. Thanks for posting Peter.

[Jennifer-ulvz]

Im more confused watching all these videos. I thought I would research and pick my three favs..But those horses two have low odds one is 12 to 1..But watching the videos its about playing horses with higher odds not actually picking the winning horses? So pick the loosers?

[johnristheanswer]

Another food for thought video. One thing I've learned with trading over many years, is that it doesn't matter what " you think " a price should be so trading like that just doesn't work. Only 'the market ' knows what price a horse ' should be '. I can categorically tell you that I know more about horseracing than you do, but I can equally categorically tell you that you know more about trading than me !

[adriandecleir]

Great video, I do have one question related to staking. Whats the point in it other than for bankroll management? I understand it steadies things but if you're getting value should it matter? If I'm getting 11/1 on a 10/1 shot I'm betting that all day long. Or am I missing something! Thanks!

[davidnolan]

Hi Peter, what percentage increase in odds delivered the result you demonstrated? Was it 5% or more of the final starting price?

[americannativeforamerica]

How can I determine how to get a horse going down class

[airwolf]

Do you personally back favourites or do you mix it up a bit? What do you look for before placing a bet?

[gareth]

How does the Bet Angel payout work out the stake ? Is there a formula? Does it use the Kelly Criterion? . Thanks

[glennharrison]

Another great video Peter, only in my opinion, an odds on can be great value if you look deeper into the race, would you agree with that Peter or is there a price that you wouldn't play

[robinabernathy]

What favorite? The ML favorite? The posttime favorite? Or the favorite the experts are picking, not all of them but more than any other selection they'd have? What type of favorite in terms of odds? Odds on? Mildly priced or very soft (5/2 or higher) Also what field size? Short fields? Very short fields? Long fields or very long fields?

[antskilu]

are Australian graphs more less the same or different, weather is different there ? strange that January and February seem good for 1-st fav, I thought that summertime is the best, maybe they swetin 2much, I don't get horses

[roncorkill]

Hi Pete, just wanted to query if I may, your sample off favs for 2023.According to my calculations there were in excess if 12500 races run in the Uk &Ire last year - so would it be accurate to assume then your sample was around 75% of the total run?

[putpentothepinnacle]

How do you determine whether you hedge the market or let the bet run each time?
As surely if you’ve managed to get better odds than BSP, you’ve then got a successful trade ready to exit.