Horse racing tips | Betting on favourites

If you are betting on horse racing, then you have probably been given a tip at some point and it was probably on the favourite.

I've always been fascinated why favourites get so much attention in horse racing. Whenever people are betting or look at some sort of a betting strategy it nearly always takes about the favourite in a horse race.

However, things are not as straightforward as you would expect with a favourite in horse racing.

A normal betting market is distorted by the interest in the favourite and you can get false favourites.

So in this video, I examine what chance a favourite has or winning a race, how you can calculate this and what characteristics produce a true or false favourite.

If you are a Betfair trading, have a careful think about this information. Understanding the way a market is priced and why, will give you a much deeper understanding of the way it trades or may trade.

Betting activity tends to drive the underlying market, so anticipating that betting activity will help you become a better Betfair trader as well!

Enjoy!

00:00 Introduction
00:52 Why does the favourite get the most attention
03:12 What chance does the favourite have of winning the next race?
05:31 Why do favourites only win 1/3rd of the time?
08:25 How do find the best favourites
11:50 Summary

#betting #horseracing #favourites

[thomastrain]

Trainers, jockeys, the weather....on and on. I have been following horse racing for about a year now learning the sport in hopes of being comfortable placing a bet at some point. I never would have imagined it but I get a lot of enjoyment from just watching them run. Beautiful animals, and amazing athletes.

[giocame]

I always look at Trainer plus Jokey combinations % over the first 5 to 6 favorites. The ones with the 2 to 3 highest scores are the trending ones. Then I look at draws, weights, horses for courses and form. Then make my selections. On paper though.
You can never get it 100% every time but quite close. On paper is always different to a living breathing unpredictable animal whos mood and circumstances in the race change constantly.
Thank you Peter for your wonderful videos. Your the best.

[stephenhanwell]

Brilliant content as usual Peter. Thanks so much for these videos, I'm loving them all.

[mickharrison]

Bookies and trainers make sure not many favs win, sometimes days are beyond belief with there corruption and deception.

[moshunless]

I've watched a few of these videos to try and get my head around the whole horse racing thing, and this channel is by far the best one i've visited, thank you

[tonyburn]

Thank you Peter. Your time in making these videos is very much appreciated! :)

[ianoian]

In that 17:25 race at Chelmsford, the favourite, Symbolic Power came second. The 50.0 horse, Reverend Hubert, came fourth!

[hamandvaid]

Love it. Back to the fundamentals - very important.

I am now betting on Beckham to win at Aintree next Thursday.

[tomleach]

Another variable which is helpful is pace ... If u can find the only pace angle in the race u can do a back to lay trade...alot of the front runners/pace horses are the outsiders so u cud back at say 20/1 and maybe trade out at 5/1 for example and make a profit ...pace and speed ratings can be very helpful

[bigfoottrades]

Favs can be a very profitable trade, backing before the off with all the market guides predicting a good run and then laying off in running to leave your green on the fav, many will hedge there trade covering green across the book, but if that fav looks a strong contender I like to leave my green on the fav to max profits.

[MrKarlpotter]

Very interesting, and helpful, thank you. You could probably do a whole separate video on favourites in novice races.... I'd certainly like to hear your thoughts on that!

[MMAMedia-hhsn]

I live in Australia and I'm keen to try this favorite (with benefits) strategy out. I've started today by backing short priced favs that have an inside rail, have recently run course and distance and are in good form. Plus I added in ground condition. So I won't back unless they have 4 out of the 5 KPIs, inside rail and form being the only absolutes without those they are omitted. I'm excited to see how it goes! There were four races that met the requirements across 3 meetings. I'm also going to monitor and log the results of the races with short priced favs which only had 3 or less of KPIs, to see if the percentages difference between the two. Oh and thanks for posting the video very interesting!

[chilubahkelly]

Interesting Tips, Favorites Tip and calculating its winning potential through dividing 1 by the betting Market. Really helpful.

[deadcheddar]

Another important aspect is to see if the horse is a favourite based on it's current win rate on a surface that it's never encountered for the current race. For example, today (11/10/2020) at the 1.30pm at Limerick, Frontal Assault went out at 6/4 fav with no jumps going-form but good flat form. It came second. Look out for favs that punters back on previous non-similar going, chances are it's worth a lay. Frontal Assault won me £200 to lay it!

[noseyp]

Another great (but simple) video, good for the newbie. I’m also interested in the greyhounds, if you can do a video on that about statistics of the fav. I tried myself to lay every fav but that does not work, tried laying a trap number, that does not work. So went to good old fashioned knowledge and went with my brain and yes that does not work. Also tough to predict the odds since most of the money will come in the last 30 seconds or so.

[Rgonzo]

I’m in the US and have won a few hundred in the past few months with a fine balance of betting on favorites and then blanket betting a few longshots on races where there’s a huge favorite (1/9) and every other is 30-50 to even 99-1.. been doing pretty good I might say🐎🍀🤣

[MikeLee-]

Mate you are a genius!... I am now a student of yours :)

[ianfan]

You need a fundamental handicapping model to really make sense of the interactions between all the variables. You also need to be able to estimate the value in the price offered, a positive expectation is the only way to make a profit over time. A lot of the information will already be contained within the price too.

[windjager]

I usually bet Show or Place on the favourite, just to be very sure. I'd rather go low risk low reward than high risk and high reward. Especially if theres only a few races that got run before that.

[garyhockaday]

I agree with this guy .. but there is one overall winner at the end of the day . The bookie . I like to follow trainers success rates myself… sum Times I’m up then down ..then up .. I think anymore than one or two bets .. can become a losing chased bet .. we all gamble slightly different… I suppose..