Late-August 2024 California Housing Market Update

Looking to buy a home in California? I have GOOD news and BAD news. There’s nearly 40% more homes for sale in California from a year ago. Also, mortgage rates and home prices have retreated somewhat. However, even with the recent decline in prices they are still not too far off the record high that was set in May 2024.

I share these trends and much more including California’s pending home sales, price reductions, home sales and much more. This is your latest California real estate market update based on a new report from the California Association of Realtors (link below).

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Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos:

Report I covered in the video:

To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30yr fixed rate mortgage is around 6.4% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).

Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?

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Jason Walter, CPA (inactive CPA lic 103885)
Sacramento real estate agent and native (DRE 01923240)
Mortgage Loan Officer, NMLS 2566691
Revest Homes (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319)

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Disclaimer:
Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.

This video description may contain affiliate links that allow you to easily find the items mentioned in my videos as well as support the channel at no cost to you. Thank you for your support! Jason Walter is a licensed real estate agent and mortgage loan originator with Revest Homes in California (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319).

For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Information and/or dates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Other restrictions may apply. Equal housing lender.

#housingmarket #California #CaliforniaRealtor

[JasonWalter]

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[nitroneonicman]

Really love seeing all the data here. Super interesting.

[CoorsLight]

"...a million dollar home in the San Francisco bay area is basically a fixer" 🤣#facts

[lakelvp]

The inventory mix is changing. So much demand was pulled forward during the mania in 2021-2023 that all the "affordable" inventory was taken off the market. Now a bigger portion of sales are the "unaffordable" inventory with cash buyers. This is the same pattern with every bubble. In markets I track that were dominated by flippers and STR bros, prices have fallen since peak in June 2022 about 10% when adjusted for inflation, but only 2-3% in nominal terms when you compare like to like inventory price per square foot, which means the NAR/CAR can cherry pick data around "median sale price" without comparing the same inventory sold in different years to spin this into a "price increase" and get that FOMO generating headline published. A small bump up in prices when the lower end of buyers drops out of the market is also completely predictable and obviously not about "rising prices." It means the median house that sells is more expensive because the low end of the demand spectrum and the low end of inventory is depleted by the mania phase. I watched all this happen in my neighborhood during the 1987 and 2006 bubbles when I was called crazy for suggesting that house prices would ever fall again and told repeatedly that house prices have never fallen in history.

The speculators who bought after 2019 are now being flushed out of the system in the three markets I track in California and will soon need to liquidate as their debt wall hits. This will dramatically increase inventory and accelerate priced drops. If prices drop another 10-15% the big wall street investors will start liquidating and we will see a flood of inventory and the meltdown that we started to see in 2009-2010 (Bernanke and the fed jumped in with all kinds of absurd QE, bad public policy, to stop foreclosures and subsidize wall street even more when they backstopped the market in 2012-2014, preventing the total bubble correction and paving the way for the crazy bubble triggered by the $6T COVID liquidity orgy). If the foreclosures that have been held off the market for four years (and in some cases up to ten years) are allowed to hit the market, the housing "shortage" will be a humorous aside told in old news clips. This election year everyone gets a pony so we will saddle the taxpayers with another half trillion of bad debt (FHA loans are already hitting historically high default rates, again this data is managed by industry trade groups so the mainstream media won't report it until the systemic collapse) to buy votes, but that giveaway to the finance industry probably won't last long after the election. The housing prices in California are completely unsustainable, driving away the tax base just as the social policy and inflation have created undeniable declines in the quality of life in California compared to the states that are 8-12 months ahead in the bubble cycle (FL and TX as you mentioned). California will experience the same thing as FL and TX by next year unless the market makers (wall street that dictates K street and policy) decide to ignite hyperinflation of the variety that takes down large countries, leads to world wars, etc.

This is the last time I am going to vent. I feel it is our obligation to educate younger viewers on housing bubbles and the speculative frenzies that have always plagued the gold rush state.

[RP-lefp]

Most of us California homeowners are setting on 2% to 3% 30 year fixed rate loans while we watch our homes double in value. The smart owners will just keep setting there on their low rate loan and add a few palm trees to their yard.

[JBoya]

Thanks for another great video. I am not too surprised that the 1M+ sales picked up. People with that amount to spend see the pace is a little slower, so things are less frantic. This is compared to a few months ago when they looked at one home, made a solid offer, and still lost out to one of the other 10 offers. Now people can take the time to look at 4 or 5 homes, weight the pros and cons of each, before having to decide.

[Tri-valleyrealtor]

Interest rate came down 1/2 a percent today.
But Bay Area property prices are crazy high.

[stevefu]

Who are those people bought houses more than a million $? I have a very decent income and find it difficult to afford anything above $700K.

[torsten]

In 1970 a house was $20k. In 1990 it was $200k. Inflation caused a 1000% inflation in 20 years. Now the last 34 years did not have much inflation, otherwise prices would now be $2, 000, 000 or more.

[Courtney-Alice-Gargani]

My place to live is Orange County but it's not affordable anymore 😂. My Aunt bought a house in Tustin Ranch in like 1999 for like $275, 000. Now that house is like one million. Tustin Ranch is a nice area.

[agentcrypto]

You didn’t break down each county like in the past but San Diego active inventory is up 17% yoy.

[nealweeks]

Homes are selling quickly, even ugly ducklings in Southern California. Ontario specifically. And they are selling quickly.

[Steverz]

Good Morning Jason, late for my Tuesday morning dose of nerd.😂 #NERDYTUESDAY

[rocketj]

No housing market crash? No surprise!

[SirSosa]

Good news is inventory is up, Bad news its still California 😢

[BlueEyedAmerican]

It doesn't make a difference the California dream is dead.

[Marbles-wg]

People running from California has left a vacuum in the housing market. Let's give property owners up to 150k for their vacant houses and sell them to people who are likely to default. The average house in CA is 945k, this will amount to welfare for the rich like Pelosi. They keep the property, they keep the 150k--that's the American dream?

[russberg]

Best thing I ever did was move from this degenerate state!