🚨 ECONOMIC CRASH: Surviving Pakistan’s $26 Billion Debt Crisis | 402 | TBT

Ahmed J. Pirzada is the Senior Lecturer and School Resource Director at the University of Bristol.

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00:00 Introduction
00:45 Snapshot of Pakistan's Economic Landscape
01:24 External Debt
02:47 How will it be managed?
05:14 Domestic Debt
05:40 Is Default an Option?
06:44 Debt Rollover Expectations
11:04 Geopolitical Ties
13:00 Restructuring in Terms of Overall Reliability
16:01 Pakistan is not a Low-income Country
16:33 Impact on Debt Restructuring
18:12 Future of Pakistan's Debt: Where is this heading?
22:03 Default vs. Otherwise: Better option?
24:34 IMF Projections
26:13 Focusing on Long-Term Sustainability
30:31 If U.S. debt inflates, will global debt follow?
37:42 Needed Policies
40:10 How to control Inflation?
43:03 Escaping the Debt Spiral
52:06 Risks Involved
53:10 Solutions: What to do?
1:03:04 The Communication Problem
1:11:12 Frameworks Comparison: Unique to Pakistan?
1:19:12 Which framework is better?
1:23:27 Development Pathways: What the book entails?
1:24:37 Inevitability of Change
1:38:57 Ending Note

[tanzil.]

Muzamil, Balochistan is burning. The people of Gwadar are facing immense hardships. Your voice can make a difference. Please cover the situation and shed light on the issues faced by the people there. We're waiting!

[moneywisefinserve]

Pakistan is greatest country on galaxy. With Allah's blessings it was created. Pakistan will rise like sphinx from ashes. No one can stop it from rising. We were are & will be greatest power, again.


Everything above was a joke 🤣😅😅😅😅😅

[abhaypatel]

Wrong title...$20 billion debt maturing this year.. pakistan has $120+ billion with debt with $62 billion owned to China according to report by reuters!!

[muhJaw]

I am a PhD student at an international university, and you both, MashAllah, have truly amazed me. This podcast is exceptionally thorough and well-founded

[salmanaziz]

Excellent discussion. Please also invite Atif Mian on your podcast

[AmeerHamza-fwdx]

Hi Muzammil I hope you are doing well and your content is much appreciated by me. You are literally providing awareness.
I want to give you a recommendation, please podcast with shabbar zaidi, I think he is very honest and can give us exciting road map for Pakistan economy.
Good luck

[ahmadmujtabaahsan]

When the guest was talking about the short-sightedness of policy makers starting from the 90s (his words being 2 years of building reserves, then 2 years of spending it) ("Escaping the Debt Spiral" part of the Podcast), I think it relates a lot to the political instability of the 90s. The avg of 2 years of Govt duration before being dismissed/toppled from 1988 to 1999 perhaps affected the psychology of politicians and policymakers.
Once a certain psychology is established, it has a lot of intertia and it will run long before the realization of the core issue and making necessary changes.

[ranahasan]

We need such kind of informative posts. We as a nation need to focus on such issues. We need to stand on our own feet. We need to be self sufficient.

[vikasbhargava]

Paxstan is Isolated. It made SAARC defunct because inhe Paxstaniyon se zyaada pyaar, Kashimiriyon se hai. It can however fulfil its greatest desire of being a part of a group of nations and perhaps lead it. It can make itself a G5 with Paxstan, North Korea, Somalia, Libya and Sudan. Maybe there too North Korea may lead the group?

[jawadshah]

Prof AJ is a legendddd!!! Straight up facts

[uzairakram]

Amazing conversation yr. I wish this gets as much views as our lifestyle bloggers etc get.

[muhJaw]

What a great question at 32:53, USD to RMB. If it happens then Junaid Akram was right that we will get success just one day before the Qayyamat. hahaha

[harir]

You need sound macro economic policies for years to achieve a solid economy. With high army expenses, low exports and internal conflict between provinces and judiciary executive and army there is no hope at all. Pakistan will become the poorest high population country in the world.

[TheBat]

The Truth is Pakistan already default..
Defense Minister Khwaja Ashif confirmed that last year

[RajaRaja-ryhr]

So true the establishment is not facing up to change they need to reasse and go back to their posts and not interfere with politics

[Mooneypilot]

To put it in simple terms there are two types of borrowing:
1. Borrowing to improve your income. For individuals, you borrow to start a business or get education to enhance your earning capacity. For a country this kind of borrowing goes towards improving infrastructure to improve the climate for employment and businesses.
2. Borrowing to pay your bills. An individual who borrows money to pay his rent or electric bill continue to fall behind and never catch up. Ultimately this individual will have to sell of assets and eventually go bankrupt. For a country that resorts to borrowing just to run its government will be forced to sell off it national assets and eventually becomes a client state of the country that is lending them money. In Pakistan’s case it is now a fully indentured state of the United States by borrowing money from the IMF.

[sarimbajwa]

Why cant i understand it? I watched the full podcast but unable to digest it. Kindly suggest pre-requisites to understand this

[bhawnasmriti]

Commenting at 41:29, I might have been taught differently in school, but from what I’ve learned about inflation, the government primarily controls it through the central bank’s repo rate. Globally, there's a concept called residual income, often seen as a key driver of inflation. To curb inflation, governments typically raise interest rates (i.e., the repo rate), which reduces people's residual income after covering core expenses, leading to lower spending on non-essential items. This reduction in demand helps bring prices down, thus controlling inflation. That's why US mein abhi rate cut ki baat ho rahi hai.. because their inflation is now under control.

[vikasbhargava]

Par jo bhi kaho Talent bahut hai Paxstan mein. Talent ki kami Nahin hai. Phir chahe woh Kirkit ho ya Haakey ya phir economic productivity, IT ya padhai. Bas Paxstanis for some reason chhupa ke rakhte hain, kissi ko dikhate nahin.

[stonedsilence]

We are hostages of the executive, judiciary, and legislators/elite. We are not citizens. And if we think that they will work for your or my benefit then we have whats known as a stockholm syndrome where we become blind to what they are or have evolved into. We have created a government system of oligarchical gov entities who are not answerable to the people nor is their performance evaluated unless ofcourse the system in its current form is threatened. Plus other than some urban youth nobody wants to educate themselves and break the chains of perpetual poverty. A clear example is what both of tou were discussing which is borrowing from external institutions. Did anyone, any individual, political party, elite or any other part of society object to subsidies through out the past 30 years? And instead take out any protests or dharnas to force the gov to use that money to educate the work force and make them competitive on the world arena? Not one leader nor citizen/hostage come out in favor of that! What does that tell you about the people and their beloved institutions? And you ask whether this nation will somehow crawl out of the quagmire of ineptitude? Of course give them the freedom to smuggle, deal in narcotics and stolen goods all in the name of all they want.