Can You Trust Retirement Calculators?

Many of the most popular retirement calculators are attached to investment companies. Can you trust their projections about how much money you need to retire?

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Instead of Monte Carlo simulations, I prefer historical data simulations. Use databases that have values going back at least 100 years. Then start a simulation at every date and find the percentage of times that your desired plan fails or succeeds. Monte Carlo, of course, is much simpler to implement but it does not have the complex and chaotic feedback that historical data gives. Of course, nothing is perfect and will not accurately predict the future. But, if your plan failed miserably and consistently in the past then maybe you need a new plan.