June 2024 FOMC Debrief

#federalreserve
Hawkish but ignored

[mikehpnitto]

BTC can disregard techincals when in a bull, did that in 2020 when it crossed previous ATH... stayed there a few weeks and continued pumping like crazy to 60k. Also, there is one constant... when around 90 on monthly RSI, the end is near. And don't expect crazy price targets of 500k... expect around 100k at most and be happy if there's more after that. If you believe big boys and CEO's of big invesment firms saying targets like 1M this cycle.. you deserve to be their exit liquidity..It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3B'tc to a decent 21B'tc in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[sirthomas]

Manipulated is a better term.. Market will sell off tomorrow, except NVDA😢

[tastypymp]

The 'hawkish' tone is the Feds way of signalling confidence in strength in the economy.

It's all politics.

[johnshaff]

Thanks Joesph! Looking forward to the weekend update

[Del_]

They’re gonna walk a lot of this hawkish talk back

[masonsteed]

I was surprised to hear the hawkish tone as well. I even thought that while he was speaking. Still opening with the same sentence

[DesmondMiles]

It wasn't influential because none of this matters in short term. In short term its about flows, dealer positioning and reflexivity. Dealers are currently buying up the index as hedges decay until OPEX/Vixexp.

[yodurk]

"Market prices in 7 cuts" = stocks go up. "Market prices in 3 cuts" = stocks go up. "Market prices in 1 cut" = stocks go up. #confused

[LumenMichaelOne]

4:00 ... It (sell-off) might happen today. (June 13th). Will The Market remain bullish after assessing a rather Hawkish stance from Powell, or least from some, more vocal, Fed board members?

Yeeah ... I think so, but I don't expect significant gains today though. Modest at best, more likely some selling. 60/40 indices are in the red today. S&P won't be travelling south-bound a -80.

[kryptoknight]

M. Wang, the fact that some FOMC members didn't bother changing their dot projections after the CPI release sounds strange .

[masonsteed]

I don’t think that median longer run dot means nothing. I understand why Powell brushed it off though. If that median estimate continues to rise I wonder if that’s a 3% inflation target. Or am I ahead of myself?

[cavscout]

Thanks! I'm rooting for Powell and friends.

[KiloKilo]

How does one determine the market's idea of 'neutral rate' that doesn't involve bloomberg terminal?

[sabastianjohnson]

They really got the market to believe this economy is the way it is organically and not the 2T pumped into the system since summer last year

[Mojodojocasahouse-qnft]

Great video! Thank you explaining so many of us non economist understand fed talk

[-Nab-]

Thank you Joseph for your valuable insight!

[chrisp]

Thanks very much for sharing your thoughts, Joseph! Your perspective is excellent to hear

[jchien]

Remember to use sun screen during summer bro ...

[josephwong]

That 2.8 long-term neutral rate is for fooling people to buy the long-term bond at a rate lower than the short-term treasury. Another way to interpret the message is that the fed is willing to bring unemployment to 4.2% to totally kill the economy so that we can have a long-term rate at 2.8 percent. I think currently the market is enjoying the rumor of a cut rate, and when it happens, it will be very bad news, because everything will need to crash to allow that to happen. Every rate cut cycle is like that.