The Secret Formula to Win at Betting

This formula will change your betting experience forever...

If you want to try the expected value calculator that I used in this video, then you can find a link to download it on my Patreon:

Patreon's get 1 trading video & 1 P&L breakdown video each month as well as many other perks!

Songs Used...

Song: Ikson - Paradise (Vlog No Copyright Music)
Music promoted by Vlog No Copyright Music.

Song: Luke Bergs - Happy
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Creative Commons - Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported

Thumbnail photo by Abigail Keenan

Disclaimer: This video is made for informational purposes and is NOT financial advice

[melancholiac]

Very well explained and extremely well illustrated.

You have a future in this line.

[valton]

Fascinating stuff Kie! I feel you’ve explained a pretty complex subject very well—given that it’s complicated! For me, given what you’ve said here, is about whether or not I’m prepared to sit and analyse data on games until the blood vessels in my eyes turn a deep shade of purple. But I can see how important it is not to go with ‘emotion’, i.e. that gut instinct that, say, L’Pool or Man C. will thrash most teams they play so go with them or, vice versa, the bottom of the table teams losing most of the time (which they probably will based on past performance) over the course of the 38 matches they play..

There’s clearly more science to trading than most of us can get our heads around but thank you for taking the time to help the less arithmetical of us to at least get a grip on why it’s important to stay calm, focused and then trade with logic and not emotion. Great video. Thank you. 👍

[karllocke]

Expectation of X is most important, but how do you start? Well, in stock market trading, for example, you would record the number of wins against the number of loses eg, I win 60% and lose 40% of the time. Next, you determine the average amount won over the 60% (using a money management technique) and then adjust the average loss of 40% to bring up a positive expectation. You do this by adjusting the overall amount you are prepared to lose. Using a geometric money management technique, eg, dynamic fixed risk may be your best bet. Remember var(X), the market fluctuation, don't get stopped out due to market variance. Once you have a positive E(X), compound interest takes care of the rest. Good luck👍

[emmanuelchukwuma]

After using this equation, Barcelona still cut my ticket 😅

[bigdolovlogs]

Bro talking like a clone, ai or something 🤣🤣

[AirBornMedia]

I'm just relieved that there are some smart kids out there, the future doesn't seem so bleak.

[timporter]

Think I commented before on your vid I am mainly doing tennis trading under 2.5 strategy is one that I like very easy to understand and implement I did it on Man U v Leeds on Mon 4th 1st one I've done for ages only stayed in market for a bit as was doing screenshot to show someone about trading

[arson]

How do you determine the true probability?

[jankacjak]

Example, 100/ 2.20 =45.45, 100/3 = 33.33, 100/3.20=30.76.
True odds 109.54 /45.45=2.41.
Question
When i calculate with your formula, i have 3 outcomes, and final number is 196.5.Is that value bet or no?

[joshuakirema]

Its so easy to make that spreadsheet, , who wants to buy from me?😂

[ilooodesigns]

you're basically saying that you think you know the percentages better than the bookmakers. might as well just guess

[JamesA]

Great stuff, I’ve been looking at the over 0.5 goals in first half market and the stats seem to suggest that around 93% of 1st goals are scored at an average of 30mins with an average of around 7% of games with no goals. Do you think there is value in placing a standard bet across all games where odds at the start will be 1.5. I will look to backtest this.

[kharmon]

Great explanation! I'm looking to make sure I understand how to expand this to Double Chance betting - that is, calculated expected value of a Double Chance Bet (either Home and Draw or Away and Draw). I think I have it but was looking for some resource to make sure. Haven't really found it. Wondering if anyone here can address.

[markchapman]

Hi Kie. The formula is fair enough, but is it not easier to just know all odds as percentages? When looking at the market I see the odds immediately as percentages. eg If Tottenham are 4/6, Brentford are 4/1 and the draw is 3/1 then I immediately see those odds as 4/6 = 60%, 4/1 = 20% and 3/1 = 25%. With 60 + 20 + 25 = 105% bookies working to 105% overround.... which doesn't at first glance look promising. if I've worked out the form and believe Tottenham have a 52% (fair 10/11) chance, Brentford 25% (fair 3/1) and the draw 23% (fair 100/30)... Then it is immediately obvious that imo Brentford are a good bet @ 4/1 and being 5% better than 3/1... For staking I could use the Kelly Critereon but I prefer my own staking method which tells me:

7.5% of my betting bank is wagered @ 4/1.

[mstii]

ArbAdviser has transformed my betting success! With its powerful features and accurate predictions, I'm making more money than ever before. It's like having a professional bettor guiding me towards profitable bets. Trust me, this software is a game-changer!

[fallrn]

great to use the expected value formula on this, but how do you calculate the probabilities of the outcomes is the real question in a sports bet.

[TheMaggsy]

Interesting that you have to wait until 903 for the to come right. You need patience in this game. Many people give up too soon.

[justinball]

I see multiple people in the comment section using the term trading instead of gambling. Whatever makes you feel better, my fellow trading junkie.

[TheMaggsy]

Variance. Pittsburgh Phil one of the best gamblers once said he had the worst run of loses on the horse fallowed by his best run ever. 😮

[davidcollier]

Hi Kie, you young man seem to be very thorough in what you do, I can see you will go a long way. I like you just have some fun with sports betting but we all like to win and have an edge, mostly I don't like losing money. You need to make some real money selling PUT and CALL options (you may already be doing this). Look out for the wheel strategy to point you in the right direction. Markus Heitkoetter on You Tube.