Nate Silver's Dire Warning to Republicans

"Two more presidential elections, 2016 and 2020, will be contested under the current Electoral College configuration, which gave Barack Obama a second term on Tuesday. This year's results suggest that this could put Republicans at a structural disadvantage.

Based on a preliminary analysis of the returns, Mitt Romney may have had to win the national popular vote by three percentage points on Tuesday to be assured of winning the Electoral College. The last Republican to accomplish that was George H.W. Bush, in 1988. In the table below, I have arranged the 50 states and the District of Columbia from the most Democratic to the most Republican, based on their preliminary results from Tuesday. Along the way, I have counted up the number of electoral votes for the Democratic candidate, starting at zero and going up to 538 as he wins progressively more difficult states."*

Cenk Uygur, Michael Shure (political correspondent, TYT and Current TV) and John Iadarola (Host, TYT University) break down the numbers and discuss where the GOP could possibly go from this point, and what they can do.

*Read more from Nate Silver/FiftyThirtyEight:

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[Nomz]

this is funny now cause TYT has been ignoring what Nate and 538 have been saying regarding the Bernie - Hillary race.

[Darkmind]

This is quite fascinating from a British perspective at the moment. The Tories here have at least tried to reform, tried to become more inclusive. The GOP on the other hand seems to be trying to dig the hole it's in even deeper. They're losing on gay marriage, they're losing on climate change, they're losing on immigration. Why keep doubling down on things that they're losing on? It makes no sense!

[michaelpreston]

The GOP's only plan is to beat 'em and Cheat 'em.

[johnclapp]

Welcome to the 21st America. Glad to see that you're finally beginning to catch up. We Canadians would really hate to leave behind, you see. Especially Rob Ford.

[buddyparrot]

They may not get the W.H. for some time to come, but they own the majority of states, and congress! Another thing to consider is how hard it is to hold the W.H. for more than 2 terms. I'm pretty sure you can count on one hand how many times it's happened in the last 100 years! We as liberals, better hope this is one of those times. The next president will likely appt. 2 justices, enough to overturn Row v Wade, and you can forget anything about campaign finance or voter ID!

[DarkMatter]

"...isn't an accurate portrayal."
What do you think I'm saying? You're misunderstanding me.
"This is a percentage game." In 1945, only 1 out of 20 Americans were nonreligious. Today, it's 1 out of 6 (Pew stats). Where did all those nonreligious people come from? Christian families. MOST of my atheist friends come from overbearingly Christian homes. Most weren't atheists. I'd rather Muslims be born in Western countries than Middle Eastern. They won't change the West; the West will change them.

[millerglvr]

LOL! Donald Trump was NOT the right answer for the GOP.

[grizzlyfan]

Nate Silver was actually using data and facts to get the right

[christo]

This is one of the evils of inflation. Inflation, especially in the 70's put a lot of people who were never meant to be in such high tax brackets into the higher tax brackets.

[nathanhilburn]

It's called a filibuster. You've ignored any economist who has said that Obamacare doesn't kill jobs, and will pay for itself.

[DarkMatter]

Actually it is a fact that atheists who grew up in Muslim families contact me all the time. That's a fact. What you or I infer from that fact is something else entirely. I was ONLY using that fact to illustrate the point that there is no guarantee that having babies equates to spreading a particular religion.

[heathersmith]

I'm a Tennessean and proud to live in one of the four blue counties. Can't say how disappointed I was to see us vote for Romney, though it wasn't a surprise. TN is a big contributor (11 EC votes)- unfortunately, we don't seem close at all to swinging blue. Torn between getting the hell out of here and staying and throwing in my vote against racist, sexist homophobes.

[Bikho]

I found this really informative. Good news. Thanks.

[BlackMambakins]

Yep. You hit the nail on the head. Hispanics don't fall for a sudden change of heart mentality we listen we watch and we never forget.

[nsecchi]

Just look at those states that went to Obama down to Colorado which put him over the top. I can't imagine the Democratic nominee losing any of those States in 2016.

[systemspecchecker]

"People willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both" - Benjamin Franklin

[mikefromwa]

"it's still hard to believe that anyone WOULD support the GOP, after all they've done to us in recent years"

Why ANY woman or minority would vote for them is beyond me. The conservative movement in America is denying the inevitable and irreversible changes that have occurred (or are coming). They simply will not accept that their platform and the things they claim to stand for are no longer seen as acceptable by the majority of the people in this country.

[TBTabby]

They have reminded firm in their mindset that compromise is the same as surrender and admitting your faults is a sign of weakness, so they will continue to double down on all their positions no matter how wrong they are. Since they refuse to bend, they're going to break instead.

[FixWithFirepower]

I can personally attest to what Cenek said about Virginia. I'm from rural VA and voted democrat across the board.

[oneputtsteven]

The GOP has more than demographic problems. In 1979 the major issues were. 1) Reduce inflation, 2) stop the Soviet empire 3) increase domestic energy supply and efficiency, 4) cut taxes(some rates were 70-90%) and increase investment and increase worker productivity.

Inflation is nowhere, the Soviet empire is gone, tax rates are at all-time lows we're swimming in capital and productivity is off the charts. The new issues are climate change expanding the middle class, and expanding health care