Why You Can't Predict Market Direction

In this video, Jason Shapiro emphasizes that trying to predict the financial market is the same as flipping a coin. He argues that thinking you are right on your market prediction means one can foresee market movements that can lead to risky decision-making. He suggests that instead of trying to predict the market, traders should position themselves in ways where potential gains outweigh the losses. The key to achieving this is by going against market consensus, as consensus bets often carry more risks than potential rewards. Jason underscores that profitable trading isn't about being right all the time, but about finding trades with favorable risk-to-reward ratios.

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[LiquidityOcelot]

In trading you don’t need to blindly follow every indicator and/or YouTube tutorials to be profitable, you get paid for how well you execute an opportunity in the market.

[chr]

It's noteworthy when a wizard like Jason who has managed millions and beat the market consistently tells predicting market is futile. Thanks Jason for enlightening us!

[Yan-rhmj]

The best we can do is
1. Define the Probability
2. Define the Reward to Risk
3. Define the Exposure, Bet Size.

Whether we lose or win a bet is outside our control.
The goal of a trader is to capture a positive expectancy.

[veronicasart]

it''s rare to see an honest person in finance. so sweet indeed.☺️

[MikeH__]

Great video man! The problem with human psychology are those pesky little biases that go undetected and are exacerbated by random favorable outcomes. It's all too easy to be convinced by some indicator, but the truth is that EVERY indicator you could possibly think of works SOME of the time, but NONE of them work ALL of the time. Risk management, both upside and downside, is key.

[eui]

Love your work. Possible to understand how you put together (calculate) "COT Index"? Is there a mathematical formula behind it. Thanks

[hppeng]

Great trader knows the truth of themarket. Thanks.

[truckertrader]

Another great video. I really enjoy your practical advice. It’s so simple it’s profound! :)

[bjdcorw]

This is why I love selling to open put options. Just wait for the stock to drop and in the meantime direction doesnt matter

[BiblicalChristianSteve]

Stock market had a news failure with NFP on 7/7/23. Are speculators long enough for you to get short?

[arshia]

believe me for understanding what Jason says you must be pro trader with experience unless nob trader even don't understand this 8 minute ultra market psychology video

[konradw.]

Mr. Shapiro, the market is not random. Randomness pertains to human thinking (flip the coin). You are unable to predict price movements because the mechanics behind those movements are still unclear to you. Greetings from @ETGFinance

[bilal-]

Hi Jason, i dont know why but at times your accent resembles alot with Mr Heath Ledger who act as joker in movie The Dark Knight.

[AndrewMoraller]

How many YouTubers scared their listeners out of the market this year? The only chance they had to stay ahead of inflation.

[chr]

Saying this again, Jason is one of the best and open traders out there genuinely interested to teach us about markets. Thanks Jason!

[solehrlich]

Thank you for the great content! Your Forward Guidance episode brought me to the channel, but also helped me abandon the idea of being smart/right, and really have an honest look at what’s most important for success in the market over time

[blah]

lots of wisdom here everyone needs to listen closely to Jason

[agapheputrasusilo]

it is so simple yet so hard. ive been trading 6 years and just got the "AHA" thought about Jason says in the video. Losing for years, and the reality is price movement is random. fundamental/technical is just a hedge & probability. Money management is a key, but understanding the basic principle that price movement is random and we dont know anything about future is most basic all new trader out there to truly understand.

[cwspartan]

Does the Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle make all attempts to make forecast models meaningless?

No, Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle does not render all attempts to make forecast models meaningless. While the principle introduces inherent uncertainties in certain pairs of physical properties, it does not invalidate the predictability or usefulness of quantum mechanics at the macroscopic level or in specific contexts.
Forecast models are built on statistical methods and probabilistic approaches, which are well-suited to handle the inherent uncertainties of quantum systems. These models rely on gathering and analyzing data from repeated measurements and observations to make predictions about the behavior of systems.
The Uncertainty Principle sets limits on the simultaneous determination of certain conjugate variables, such as position and momentum, or energy and time. It implies that the more precisely one variable is known, the less precisely the conjugate variable can be determined. However, this does not imply complete unpredictability or render forecast models meaningless.
In practice, forecast models take into account the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics and work within the bounds of the Uncertainty Principle. They make use of statistical distributions, quantum probabilities, and other mathematical techniques to provide predictions that are consistent with the principles of quantum mechanics.
Moreover, it is important to note that the Uncertainty Principle primarily applies to microscopic systems and phenomena at the quantum level. At larger scales, classical mechanics and statistical approaches prevail, allowing for highly accurate predictions and forecasts in many practical applications.
Therefore, while the Uncertainty Principle imposes limitations on the simultaneous knowledge of certain variables, it does not render forecast models meaningless. Instead, it motivates the use of statistical methods and probabilistic reasoning to make predictions and estimates within the framework of quantum mechanics.

[thurston]

It is random but sometimes predictable, if you study trends most days the same happens at a similar time, not always but sometimes