NASA | IPCC Projections of Temperature and Precipitation in the 21st Century

New data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio show how climate models -- those used in the new report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- estimate how temperature and precipitation patterns could change throughout the 21st century.
For the IPCC's Physical Science Basis and Summary for Policymakers reports, scientists referenced an international climate modeling effort to study how the Earth might respond to four different scenarios of how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would be emitted into the atmosphere throughout the 21st century.

The Summary for Policymakers, the first official piece of the group's Fifth Assessment Report, was released Fri., Sept. 27.

That modeling effort, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), includes dozens of climate models from institutions around the world, including from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation calculated mean model results for each of the four emissions scenarios. The final products are visual representations how much temperature and precipitation patterns would change through 2100 compared to the historical average from the end of the 20th century. The changes shown compare the model projections to the average temperature and precipitation benchmarks observed from 1971-2000. This baseline is different from the IPCC report, which uses a 1986-2005 baseline. Because the reference period from 1986-2005 was slightly warmer than 1971-2000, the visualizations are slightly different than those in the report, even though the same model data is used.

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[commandermcnash]

For what I am underestanding here is that the climate will become more extreme, with warmer summers, colder winters, more rain where there already is and less precipitation in already arid zones.

[shinysheer]

Now understand this. Every scientific study makes certain assumptions. So it would be really good to hear what data this study used and what assumptions they made. It's good to question things.

[IstasPumaNevada]

The problem we have, with this topic in particular, is that too many people are claiming to be 'skeptical' while at the same time ignoring positions taken by people educated in the relevant fields and also not bothering to look up any information for themselves.

[nedmano]

it's going to be interesting to live in the next 50 years

[ffangs]

this is a great visualization but is there a flat projection version available also? it would be interesting to see what was happening around the globe at the same time.

[scott_harrison]

This is great news! I live in England so before I die, I'm guaranteed at least one decent summer. Thanks Nasa!

Funny but I swear its getting colder not warmer

[kimopuppy]

Arguing over climate change is like standing on the railroad tracks debating when the next train will come through!

[theyuha]

Does this take into account what the scientists are doing to our atmosphere to mitigate global warming?

[Afterlord]

My cardiologist once had to use a stethoscope to hear my heart! He's obviously not experienced enough to know on sight.

[IstasPumaNevada]

There have been periods of much warmer temperatures, millions of years ago. More recently there's been a cycle of 'ice ages' over the past 400, 000 years or so, broken up with interglacial periods of warmer temps and higher CO2, one of which we were already at the plateau of -before- any human impact.

It's impossible to say just how much we might conceivably 'break' the recent climate patterns of the Earth, which I think is the number one argument for avoiding doing it in the first place.

[TonyMach]

I'm looking forward to projections about the length of the current hiatus – though I won't hold my breath…

[vcval]

this is all good hypothetical projections, how about using the same model using temperature records, most countries have enough records going back 100 years for capital cities and large towns, so there is a little bit of data to go through and then see how it compares and if there is a trend or a pattern of heating and cooling. to quote unknown author "Look back to where you have been, for a clue to where you are going"

[Anonymoose]

There's a certain amount of relief to be had in knowing that I won't be around to see the end result, of how badly we humans have screwed up our planet.

[bobzone]

Trying to figure out why there are so many people who clearly do not appreciate science or scientists on videos by NASA...

[richardperth]

what is making things hotter is it the power plants or land clearing lack of trees to capture the CO2 or is it ever thing?

[Anxian]

I live in Britain, there's records of Romans having grape vines in the North of England where its usually fairly cold now. I've also seen graphs where it was hotter in the medieval age than it is now. So there's always been cooling and warming well before industrialisation. Surely, as we are on a speck of dust surrounded by a gas bubble there must be billions of factors that effect the Earth's temperature. I'm not trying to deny climate change but surely we don't have all the effecting data.

[freeridefitness]

Why IPCC in this model does not show the Antarctic? Why this gap? Because in their calculation models are not designed for solar activity? IPCC for me you better change profession

[nemodot]

Couldn't catch a lot of information to south america, where I live. I want to know how do you guys think the precipitations will change in the southern tip, it's a topic of discussion among some friends.

[IstasPumaNevada]

Hmm. There have been many cycles and changes of climate over Earth's history, definitely. But looking into it, I think the recent (in geologic terms) cycles only seem to go back about 10 million years before getting to a rather drastic shift.

[rchuso]

The problem, of course, is the human reaction: digging more wells in dry areas and draining the rivers faster, increasing erosion because of persisting farming techniques in the wetter areas and less food production as a result. We'll react after the fact, not prepare for it.