The Future of Russia: Down But Not Out | CNAS 2022 National Security Conference

Amid Russia’s poor military performance in Ukraine, its military losses, and the high costs that the Kremlin has faced because of its invasion, many policymakers and analysts assert that Washington will not have to worry about Russia in the coming years. This interactive panel will take on this assessment and examine Russia’s future military capabilities, economic prospects, and political intentions towards the West to paint a more nuanced account of the Russian threat post-Ukraine.

Featuring: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Michael Kofman, Eddie Fishman, Richard Connolly
and moderated by David Lawler of Axios.

[hairharbor]

Did the first guy really use the Iran sanctions as a successful model? Iran's regime is safely in power and still involved in aggressive foreign policy throughout the middle east. Furthermore they're closer than ever to developing their first nuke. He just cited a sanctions model that hasn't worked.

[basilpaalarjee]

So according to Sy. Hersh US took out the NS2 pipeline, nice job bringing democracy and energy security to Europe. Are we still of the mindset Russia is loosing and Ukraine is winning ?

[basilpaalarjee]

Russia can reprice oil in Rubles - and control the exchange rates for rubles and give discounts. Like all other sanctions in the past, this is just wishful thinking

[hudhinton]

I've been wrong about Putin before, but I can't fathom that he's currently making more nuclear weapons. Modernizing maybe, but to build more would just suck up too much money he could otherwise use for his army. I also question whether they have loads of spare parts for their military aircraft. Particularly if they share many of the same (non-military) parts with commercial aircraft.

Most parts of the commercial economy are going to be severely impacted. The non-military economy is going to take a big hit with large sectors like the service and financial sectors. Employers will also be looking to shed employees due to inflation. Going to be lots of unemployment.

[paulx]

when afgaan army was winning Kabul felt aweek later

[gusngregg]

From the start of the war we were hearing here in South América that the advance on Kiev was a distraction to consolidate the Dombas. I still don't get from where do this people get that the idea that Russia was expecting a short campaing

[basilpaalarjee]

and why would the rest of the world keep trading in dollars ?. They would just switch to other payment systems. and bring shortages. Either way the economy would shirk and debt to GDP will collapse. Russia has no debt or tiny compared to west. We are suffering more than Russian now and it will continue

[dicecorporation]

Dunno who this Dave guy is, but I doubt his IQ is more than 60

[jameslawrence]

Calling up music students to fight for the Pro-Russian Separatists is not a sign of strength ("press ganged" would be a better term) The Kremlin can't raise anymore reserves.... most on the front are ready to walk away let alone fight - you need soldiers to fight a war!! apparently ;) Without full mobilisation they don't have the manpower to keep up with a few hundred casualties per day.... and that could lead to problems at the top