TWiV 792: Transmission with Jeffrey Shaman

Jeffrey Shaman returns to TWiV to explain how epidemiologists measure SARS-CoV-2 movement among humans, including calculation of the reproductive index, secondary transmission, and what factors affect transmission.

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Twitter: @profvrr

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I’m Vincent Racaniello, Earth’s Virology Professor.

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#microbe #viruses #coronavirus #pandemic
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[susanwymer]

I thoroughly enjoyed today’s episode. As a retired epidemiologist the discussion of R(0), R(t) and R(e) really brought to light the impact people have on these three data points.

[laurac]

I find it valuable to listen to virologists, epidemiologists, health care professionals, etc, trying to take in each one’s emphasis and discern what I can from it all. It is natural that, for example, that a virologist would strongly emphasize the attributes of the virus itself, while another scientist would be emphasizing their field’s findings. Each person involved needs to respect the input of the other branches of science, while admitting errors and misunderstandings (sometimes intentional?) do happen, even in their own branch.

[michalchik]

This is the first epidemiologist I've heard that I agreed with everything he had to say.

He corrected a lot of the other people I've listened to on the points that I thought didn't make sense.

[Nvwheeler]

Mr. Shaman's comment about an increased awareness in the public about virology and epidemiology certainly applies to me. I have learned so much, in large part from twiv

[OldOneTooth]

Transmission: epidemiology overall effect of what is happening vs virology identifying the mechanisms by which it is happening.

[semiephemeral]

YES! Get Jeff back. Brilliant guy.

Big constrast to Osterholm: I know EVERYTHING
Jeff: man, there's a lot of dogma out there I'm not so sure.

[BrianWanda]

Thank you for having Jeffrey Shaman on. - get that man a whiteboard next time.

[andykrackow]

Fascinating discussion. I love Vincent, but he's a bit stubborn. As Katherine said, "You're not going to change Human Nature, Vincent"

[acaryadasa]

That was a very good episode. And especially in the discussion afterwards it made me possible to understand and maintain the integrity of Dr. R's point of view on fitness and the lack of proof of "transmissibility", while integrating it with the statistical epidemiological analysis of variants.

[debscamera]

If I was a school superintendent, here in FL, I would just segregate the masked and the maskless, and redo all of the class assignments. Put all the masked people in one half of the school, and the unmasked on the other side. That way one unmasked kid doesn't have to stress out a whole classroom.

[theragingmoderate]

I got the vaccine recently because I had friends that didn't get the vaccine and got sick in Texas. I didn't think I needed to get it so I didn't now I realize I do so I did.

[eliseleonard]

I think this argument about fitness vs. transmissibilty is a tempest in a teacup for current practical purposes, even if it’s important to understand in the longer term.

[ediseverywhere]

I've been looking forward to this one!

[coastwalker]

Listen to Cathy Vincent, she has a point. You are probably correct that transmission has not changed with Delta but you are making a cross to die on out of the idea. Soon the only thing the wider public will think you are contributing to educating the public on SARS-Cov-2 is that none of the variants have any increased transmissibility - even though it is clear that Delta is spreading very fast and the public have to be told that this is happening - whatever the details of the mechanism that is causing it. Your audience here understands the distinction that you are making but it is very difficult to both tell the public that it is spreading fast and that it is not more transmissible.

[SuperZardo]

Newton: ‘I will not accept the idea that gravity exists unless I fully understand its mechanics and all of the physical properties of heavenly things’
Vincent: ‘I will not accept the idea that these corona variants are more transmissible unless I fully understand what physical property of the virus proteins causes it and it has then been verified in the lab’
Newton: ‘Ouch, that apple did hurt’.

[nxjitki]

Definitions! Definitions! Couldn, t agree more. Many thanks team.

[aefun]

Big up on Shaman for coming on ("Burn the witch!" ... maybe not). I´m strongly inclined to the team Vincent side of the argument, for two reasons. One, the way the UK variant was publicised at so very an opportune moment for the UK government & two, that it must be so very difficult to model out so many varied human behaviours to only see the transmissibility of the virus. Possibly the truth is somewhere in between though, so Delta might be slightly more transmissible than the original variant.

[martypoll]

When he was talking about separating the intrinsic properties of the virus from the other factors contributing to spread it reminded me of twin studies in genetics trying to dissociate nature vs nurture.

[whoever]

Nice, Brianne! I learned the Greek alphabet back when I was studying the Bible as a youngin.

[fgomez]

This is one of those rare cases lately when one video in this channel is truly scientific.