US-based think tank conducts Taiwan-attack simulations, showing Chinese defeat

In a set of 24 simulated scenarios conducted by Washington-based think tank CSIS, Chinese attempts at invading of Taiwan nearly always end in China’s defeat. In most cases the scenarios finished with the survival of Taiwan’s autonomy, but with heavy losses endured by the U.S. and Japan. The think tank said that to ensure a better outcome, the U.S. must better equip Taiwan, allowing it to defend itself. Let’s hear from a senior CSIS advisor.

Voice of Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
Chinese forces were unable to conquer the island, and Taiwan endured as an autonomous democracy.

Concerned about the possible outbreak of a war in the Taiwan Strait, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies designed a war game to model a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026, which it ran 24 times in a variety of scenarios. China failed to take over Taiwan in nearly every scenario, and its forces sustained heavy losses.

Voice of Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
China also took terrible losses, often including more than a hundred warships, and tens of thousands of soldiers killed, wounded or captured. Such a failure might endanger the communist party’s grip on power.

CSIS said that a failed attempt at invading Taiwan may cause the collapse of the CCP, but the U.S. and Japan would also sustain heavy losses during the battle.

Voice of Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
In four weeks of fighting the United States typically lost hundreds of aircraft, two aircraft carriers and up to 2,000 other ships. Bases on Guam were devastated. The Taiwanese economy suffered extensive damage. Japan was often dragged into the war, and its bases attacked.

Taiwan’s military would also see the loss of roughly 3,500 soldiers, four destroyers and 22 coast guard vessels, but it would not suffer defeat. CSIS says that the first priority is to ensure that Taiwan is well armed. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is surrounded by the sea, meaning that overland logistical support is not possible. Once fighting begins, it will difficult for allies to provide Taiwan with assistance, it said.

Mark Cancian
CSIS senior advisor
It runs out typically within the first couple of days, and then when that runs out the United States has to use shorter-range munitions. Those can be effective, but it increases losses, and increases risk.

Mark Milley
Joint Chiefs of Staff chair
As long as we remain number one, then we will deter the war that people worry about. A great-power war, between China and the United States.

Su Tzu-yun
Institute for National Defense and Security Research
The U.S. and Japan will help defend Taiwan, but the U.S. should immediately strengthen Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, and should put a stop to China’s military expansion. In the future, Taiwan may have around 2,000 anti-ship missiles, which will effectively prevent Chinese vessels from landing on Taiwan, and limiting the threat from its convoy.

CSIS suggests that the U.S. provide Taiwan with inexpensive weapons systems, better enabling it to protect itself.

[lenthokchom]

The only channel that says china lost in invasion while the pentagon itself have reported that the west lost in every simulation fighting against china over SCS or the taiwan straite. Lol

[ylu]

Adjusting the input parameters in the simulation software until the perceived enemy loses.

[GaryLa]

🙏Taiwan 🇹🇼 is a democratic China, established in 1912. It is never being part of Communist China🇨🇳.
China should backoff & leave Taiwan alone, Respecting human right. Taiwan has a right to form any government it deems fit.

[GaryLa]

One China is referring to One Democratic China was established in 1912 leading by ROC Taiwan🇹🇼, Not Communist China🇨🇳. According to our founding father, Sun Yat-sen孫中山 who overthrew Qing dynasty to built a Democratic country, NOT totalitarian Communist China🇨🇳. Taiwan🇹🇼Republic of China is pursuing founding father's direction.

[jollygreen]

An emp bomb is all that’s needed to knock out the defenses

[randonewday]

I think USA 🇺🇸 should give Taiwan 🇹🇼 all weapons needed to defend themselves now today not tomorrow to defend themselves like Ukraine defending themselves

[EthanReadsHisBooks]

The US has no current policy to defend China's rouge state Taiwan using US forces. Did CSIS stage simulation based on that policy? Why not? Who won?

[sunchicheng]

Funny on that war game on every aspect, lowest casualty in a history, sound to me American encourages you get involved to the war lol

[marianshen]

Taiwanese society has already felt that the situation is not optimistic from the psychological to the physical level, and the United States is pushing Taiwan closer to the smoke of war. Does America Have Amnesia? Afghanistan. Iraq. Syria, Libya Isn't that enough?