What is Simple Exponential Smoothing? - Time Series Forecasting in Python

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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:30 What is exponential smoothing
1:32 Simple exponential smoothing
5:55 Simple exponential smoothing in Python
10:00 Summary
10:35 Outro
  1. Egor Howell
  2. data science
  3. time series
  4. python
  5. machine learning
  6. time series analysis
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Комментарии
Автор

Hi! I tried working out the formula at 3:45. Shouldn't it be y_hat_t+1 = a*y_t + (1-a)*y_hat_t ? This would give the smoothing formula we looked at earlier on.

aaronsalve
Автор

Nice. I'm starting to figure this out. Doing some NFL QB stats and want to forecast/predict/guess the next game stats. Looked at XGB, then ARIMA and learned enough to know I want a time series forecast but my stats don't have a good trend, seasonal yes but not seasonal in the model sense and no cycle. Much variation week to week. The only influencing factor I am using is the opposing team passing defense ranking. Will switch to this model. I'm still wondering if I can feed the defensive factor in to train the model and have it predict and adjusted outcome.

NomadicBrian
Автор

does simpleexpsmoothing method itself convert data into stationary? cause in your you have not converted data into stationary data

sagargwal
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