Canada's Inflation Rate Slows - Bank of Canada to SLOW Rate Hikes?

#CanadaInflation #BankofCanada #CanadaEconomy

Canada’s inflation rate came in lower than expected today, reducing .5% from November down to 6.3%. This will likely ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to engage in a 50bps rate hike at its announcement next month.

At the same time, the Bank of Canada has released its surveys of Business and Consumer expectations, showing a drop in inflationary expectations in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Links:

Inflation: Economists expecting slight cool down in December data:

Lower gas prices pull inflation back to 6.3% in Canada in December:

Bank of Canada's business and consumer surveys show signs of a weakening economy:

Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2022:

Policy interest rate:

Canada’s inflation rate eases to 6.3% in December as gasoline prices fall:

Consumer price index portal:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, measures of core inflation and other related statistics - Bank of Canada definitions:

Restoring price stability for all Canadians:

Business and consumer sentiment sours, while inflationary pressures ease, BoC surveys find:

Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Survey Data:

OPEC says Chinese oil demand to rebound in 2023 after drop:

Canadian Inflation Slows to 6.3%, Opening Door to Rate Pause:

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[terryevp]

Very well explained video with everything that you need to know in a nutshell. Thanks, Mark, for keeping us well-educated...!!! You are awesome

[spring]

Well done! I find your analysis to be spot on. You always do a very nice job or bringing out the essential points and contextualising them in a logical, easy to follow manner. As well, you now have enough of a track record that it is possible to go back and verify the veracity of what you are saying. I find you entirely credible.

[Lifeisapartydresslikeit]

I can always count on you for an update. Always on point! Thank you 🙏🏾

[billm]

Gss prices are likely to go up again. I work with crowns in Agri Food sector. All input cost and production cost along with equipment are going up again this yr by minimum 15-20%. Labour is still short and driving up wages in our sector and related sectors. I just cannot see 2% at any time unless jobs are lost with a serious recession where businesses too close down.

[gjtv]

Gas is back up to $1.82 in the lower mainland, was $1.65 last Friday

[fjskj]

Gas is at 1.50 again where Im at (near Toronto Pearson) after a brief stay in the 1.35 mark. Thats a .15 jump very quick. Also checked an 18month data on prices and we're trending upwards

And also, not that this is an indicator but malls are STILL PACKED on the weekends after Christmas. People have shopping bags and lining up at the cash register. People still have money to spend IMO.

[rite-note]

You can already predict Phil Soper's, or as I like to call him Baghdad Bob, response when Tiff raises rates by 25bps citing inflation is down. Keep up the good work Mark.

[CanadaTop]

Inflation will remain sticky for a long time. BOC will be cautious before rolling back interest rates. At least an year of continuous downward inflation is needed for any course correction.

[RAM-KINGOFTRUCKS]

Food prices are up and gas prices going up..we are not heading in the right direction ..I Don't believe nothing when it comes to governments and analysts 👎

[alexstreet]

Hey love your content! Just need some advice I’ve been looking at the market the last couple years and would be buying my first home outright no mortgage, do you think now would be a good time to do that? Or to wait longer? I’m in no rush to buy right now so just trying to buy at the lowest point, thanks!

[ramonmartinez]

lol "its a great time to buy". you are a killer hahaha

[paulpremack]

Is it a good idea to buy a rental property in Calgary right now?

[dentrobate]

Is it a good time to invest in a GIC? Like will interest rates go up or down by February?

[yingyang]

Nope... rates still need to go up.... time to pay the piper.

[Lifer]

Nice. Marginal good news. I think that sums it up. Any thoughts on the pre-construction market? A lot of YouTube talking heads say this market is fine (at least for this year). The thesis seems to be that the rental market will save the pre-con investor. Pre-con is a dark market so what do you think?

[Oldmanfreeride]

With headline inflation down it should be interesting to see what the effects of china’s opening up will be especially oil prices. Will this bring headline inflation back up or make it go even higher as there is a lot of pent-up demand for stuff?

[georgedoolittle]

Tulip Mania in *"pre condo sales"* be now ahem *"normalized"* ahem many of course are buying gold and silver to include *OF COURSE* Central Banks going on for quite some time now.

This is all very deflationary and should result in continued interest rate *INCREASES* as risk returns to markets from the absolute *"Zero Risk Profile"* of just 12 Years ago.

US energy exports by way of specific example in particular of natural gas continue to flood the global market and this despite a massive collapse upon the natural gas *FUTURES* price.

[John-bqjh]

Remember data sources. CPI has two numbers, actual and seasonally adjusted just like house sales there are sales and seasonally adjusted sales. Since 1910 there is a significant statistically bias towards CPI dipping in November and December but “blipping “ in January and February. From 2013 to 2023 January-February CPI always was higher than the previous November- December and yes even during the 2020 2021 and 2022 time periods. Source : Table: 18-10-0004-01 (formerly CANSIM 326-0020). My bet is that this seasonality will be also true for January and February CPI.

[bluedunn]

It happens when you take shelter, energy and food out of the equation….

[ronbonora]

Marginally good news, on inflation, is going to result in at least a 1/4 percent increase in interest rates at the end of January/23.