Excess Mortality Continues for 15 Years After Storms like Hurricane Helene, and Dwarfs Direct Deaths

I have some big expenses for a laptop and new phone for this channel, so please help me out.

Should I go to the Baku climate conference?

Sincerely,
Paul Beckwith

Excess Mortality Continues for 15 Years After Storms like Hurricane Helene, and Dwarfs Direct Deaths

It’s been six full days since Hurricane Helene went ashore in Florida, and the impacts are still affecting large portions of the United States.

The latest death toll is over 180 people, and still rising rapidly as entire villages were washed away and many bodies are still to be found.

The economic cost estimates are now as high as $160 billion US dollars. If it does reach this level, that would put it 5th or 6th in the costliest disasters in recent human history.

Shortly after the storm hit, power outages across multiple states reached over 4 million people, and now, 6 full days later just over 1 million people are still without power.

What is most surprising is that a new peer-reviewed paper just published shows that these tropical cyclone storms hitting the USA between 1930 and present kill an average of 24 people directly and between 7,000 and 11,000 people over the 15 year period subsequent to the actual storm. This is crazy. The authors show statistically that these “excess mortalities” in the region where the storm hit can only result from the storm, and are likely due to stress, poor health systems after the storm damaged infrastructure, and a variety of other storm caused effects.

Climate change caused extreme events are clearly wreaking enormous havoc on our societies today, causing untold misery, and huge economic losses that can only end badly.

Links:

View from space shows path of power outages from Hurricane Helene

US power outage map, updated every 10 minutes

Hurricane Helene: Economic Losses Could Total $160 Billion

Wikipedia: List of Disasters by Cost

Hurricane Helene: a visual timeline of storm’s devastation:

Helene is now the deadliest mainland U.S. hurricane since Katrina:

Hurricanes like Helene are deadly when they strike and keep killing for years to come

A hurricane’s aftermath may spur up to 11,000 deaths:

New Peer-reviewed paper (open source)
Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States

Abstract:
Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed after a disaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event. Tropical cyclones (TCs)—that is, hurricanes and tropical
storms—are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts, but their full health impact remains unknown. Here we conduct a large-scale evaluation of long-term effects of TCs on human mortality in the contiguous United States (CONUS)
for all TCs between 1930 and 2015. We observe a robust increase in excess mortality that persists for 15 years after each geophysical event. We estimate that the average TC generates 7,000–11,000 excess deaths, exceeding the average of 24 immediate
deaths reported in government statistics. Tracking the effects of 501 historical storms, we compute that the TC climate of CONUS imposes an undocumented mortality burden that explains a substantial fraction of the higher mortality rates
along the Atlantic coast and is equal to roughly 3.2–5.1% of all deaths. These findings suggest that the TC climate, previously thought to be unimportant for broader public health outcomes, is a meaningful underlying driver for the distribution of mortality
risk in CONUS, especially among infants (less than 1 year of age), people 1–44 years of age, and the Black population. Understanding why TCs induce this excess mortality is likely to yield substantial health benefits.

I have some big expenses for a laptop and new phone for this channel, so please help me out.

Should I go to the Baku climate conference?

Sincerely,
Paul Beckwith

[PaulHBeckwith]

I have some big expenses for a laptop and new phone for this channel, so please help me out.

Should I go to the Baku climate conference?

Sincerely,
Paul Beckwith

Excess Mortality Continues for 15 Years After Storms like Hurricane Helene, and Dwarfs Direct Deaths

It’s been six full days since Hurricane Helene went ashore in Florida, and the impacts are still affecting large portions of the United States.

The latest death toll is over 180 people, and still rising rapidly as entire villages were washed away and many bodies are still to be found.

The economic cost estimates are now as high as $160 billion US dollars. If it does reach this level, that would put it 5th or 6th in the costliest disasters in recent human history.

Shortly after the storm hit, power outages across multiple states reached over 4 million people, and now, 6 full days later just over 1 million people are still without power.

What is most surprising is that a new peer-reviewed paper just published shows that these tropical cyclone storms hitting the USA between 1930 and present kill an average of 24 people directly and between 7, 000 and 11, 000 people over the 15 year period subsequent to the actual storm. This is crazy. The authors show statistically that these “excess mortalities” in the region where the storm hit can only result from the storm, and are likely due to stress, poor health systems after the storm damaged infrastructure, and a variety of other storm caused effects.

Climate change caused extreme events are clearly wreaking enormous havoc on our societies today, causing untold misery, and huge economic losses that can only end badly.

Links:

View from space shows path of power outages from Hurricane Helene

US power outage map, updated every 10 minutes

Hurricane Helene: Economic Losses Could Total $160 Billion

Wikipedia: List of Disasters by Cost

Hurricane Helene: a visual timeline of storm’s devastation:

Helene is now the deadliest mainland U.S. hurricane since Katrina:

Hurricanes like Helene are deadly when they strike and keep killing for years to come

A hurricane’s aftermath may spur up to 11, 000 deaths:

New Peer-reviewed paper (open source)
Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States

Abstract:
Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed after a disaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event. Tropical cyclones (TCs)—that is, hurricanes and tropical
storms—are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts, but their full health impact remains unknown. Here we conduct a large-scale evaluation of long-term effects of TCs on human mortality in the contiguous United States (CONUS)
for all TCs between 1930 and 2015. We observe a robust increase in excess mortality that persists for 15 years after each geophysical event. We estimate that the average TC generates 7, 000–11, 000 excess deaths, exceeding the average of 24 immediate
deaths reported in government statistics. Tracking the effects of 501 historical storms, we compute that the TC climate of CONUS imposes an undocumented mortality burden that explains a substantial fraction of the higher mortality rates
along the Atlantic coast and is equal to roughly 3.2–5.1% of all deaths. These findings suggest that the TC climate, previously thought to be unimportant for broader public health outcomes, is a meaningful underlying driver for the distribution of mortality
risk in CONUS, especially among infants (less than 1 year of age), people 1–44 years of age, and the Black population. Understanding why TCs induce this excess mortality is likely to yield substantial health benefits.


I have some big expenses for a laptop and new phone for this channel, so please help me out.

Should I go to the Baku climate conference?

Sincerely,
Paul Beckwith

[ErnestOfGaia]

Lots of chemicals in flood water and livestock generally go right back out to pasture after flooding subsides

[tinadkuper]

Paul...so sorry to hear about your kittie😢. I lost my cat of 17 yrs. It's not easy. My heart goes our to you

[generaljm]

Paul, because of your work I have paid more attention to Climate and Earth systems more regularly using tools such as the Climate Reanalyzer. I have a video idea for you: “Managing Collapse with Collapsing tools.” The CR has been down since Hurricane Helene, and it got myself and others online to highlight how humanity will not be as able to foresee these changes if the centers and places that these tools are utilized come under the same effects. Food for thought.

[sumiland]

Paul, may I appeal to your community to go to the youtube channels carrying the local news from all these places and comment positively, helpfully, supportatively? Because there are some terrible people leaving mean comments and blaming conspiracy theories and worse. Even insulting the people living in these disaster areas and worse - SAYING IT'S A HOAX!! 😖 We need to support these dear people, not tear them down.

[CitiesForTheFuture]

I'm in Africa. We get big storms, but nothing like the hurricanes & tornadoes that the Caribbean & Gulf Coast etc (such as the Ring of Fire) gets. I'm always amazed how blase many people are in the face of what's on the way... huge winds & lashing rain etc, but this seems like a perfect time to drive to the beach for a swim / surf and stand on the rocks to watch the waves, or go to dinner on the beachfront to watch the tide come in. I'd be cowering under a bed in a canoe with water wings on!

I subscribe to several weather channels, many of which predicted a big storm days in advance, so I'm not entirely sure why various areas weren't well prepped & evacuated days before! Surely this "was not their first rodeo". Does FEMA get involved in big storm pre-prep, or only afterwards? And how does NOAA help?

I'm really trying to imagine what it's like to live in an area prone to such big hazards, especially if I was a home owner. Surely houses come with extra storm protection "thingies"... especially with the vast majority of owners losing their insurance. There's a community in Florida that has done the big storms prep thing using nature based solutions, renewable tech etc - do we know if they got through HH okay?

This study is shocking, but perhaps not that surprising. Areas hit by disasters often take decades to recover with local critical funds diverted to recovery efforts, awa the impacts of trauma (physically & emotionally).

We put serial killers in jail for life for killing a few people, but give trillions in subsidies to corporations that kill hundreds to millions, & cost economies dearly. It's bizarre! Perhaps when our ancestors look back in history to our time they'll laugh and think how stupid we were; it's really just not funny now.

[AKrn]

I think society's heat engine is near top dead center and there won't be enough fuel after the last cycle to go again.
Unfortunately, we also blew out the piston rings and cracked the cylinder so it's a moot point anyway.

[christianzilla]

I can't listen to the song 'Going loco down in Acapulco' without mirth after it was wiped out by that hurricane that came out of nowhere.

[georgewaters]

If I had the money you would be first on my list. Thank you for all you do Paul.

[sniffableandirresistble]

I've been playing so much chess I first read the title of your video as "excess Morphy" hilarious our brains 🧠 (my brain ... lol 😂)

[ChimpJacobman]

Youre JUST reading The Climate Book?!?! I've read it twice, its really important, much more doomerish than your last few reads, but more realistic.

[AlDig-mv]

Plus rebuilding in same areas is nuts! It will flood again. A flood plain is a flood plain!

[EdoRiver]

I am in Japan for both of those experiences 😮

[RobertMStahl]

Stella Q, with her weatherman in residence, has information about Helene that, despite its true Lock and Load attributes, was merely a category 1 upon landfall, from land based instrument readings, N, how N oddly forming, or, stationary, low pressure system in Tennessee and Ohio sucked in the cloud structure over the Appalachian Mountains, the real turning point, duplicating N event noted by Paul Craig Roberts to have happened, similarly, in 1916, FWIW.

[johnnyjet.]

Get a Solar Death Ray for cooking - no fuel, no fumes!

[ulrichschonhardt]

Fun fact: Rebuilding everything is good for the Mordor economy. It's a self-amplifying feedback loop.

[mikeecker]

“these people would still be alive” This should be stated their life expectancy was reduced. For example if people die of heart attacks rebuilding they might have died at a later date of a heart attack anyway( or even an earlier date of a heart attack (less likely)) as they probably had a pre-existing condition which increased their risk level. The storm rebuilding exasperated that risk level.

[frinoffrobis]

there is a new storm developing in the same area and prolly hit Florida in the same area.. (my opinion is that it won't be quite as strong but what do I know)

[ErnestOfGaia]

Wonder how much $ in stranded assets that won't rebuild after helene

[christianzilla]

The stats on the deaths from Chernobyl are laughable. Immediate radiation exposure deaths, sure... but the deaths that resulted after from cancers etc are in the hundreds of thousands.