The Tipping Point I Got Wrong | Malcolm Gladwell | TED

In his 2000 bestseller "The Tipping Point," Malcolm Gladwell told the story of why crime fell in New York City in the 1990s. Now, 25 years later, he's back with a confession and a mea culpa: "I was wrong," he says. He shares how his analysis contributed to the rise of the infamous "stop and frisk" policing policy in New York City — and shows why journalists should avoid the trap of imagining a story is ever really over. (Followed by a Q&A with TED's Monique Ruff-Bell) (Recorded at TEDNext 2024 on October 22, 2024)

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[vosechu]

I love that TED did this talk and I especially love that the woman doing the questions at the end asked him point blank if he was thinking about the effects on black people. This takes a lot of courage from all sides and I’m glad that we’re in a place as a country and a community to speak like this with each other. Thank you to Malcom Gladwell and to TED and everyone involved!

[andrewbest]

Malcolm Gladwell is articulate and compelling public speaker. But I am concerned that he is making the same mistake in this Ted Talk as in the original Tipping Point: trying to draw broad conclusions where the data isn't sufficient. It becomes difficult in science to draw conclusions from an uncontrolled experiment when multiple variables are changing at the same time (there are statistical methods such as multivariant regression that can help). Crime levels in a city depend on much more than a stop and frisk policy. Economic conditions, demographics, family cohesion, education levels, and social programs all play a role. So it may be just as wrong to state that stop and frisk played no role in decreasing in crime in the early 2000s as that it did. This policy may have played a role in decreasing crime in the early 2000s, but by the mid 2010s, under evolving social conditions, it might no longer have played a role. Or maybe it did still play a role, and crime levels would have fallen even faster if the policy had been maintained.

I think rather than saying "I was right" or "I was wrong", it might make more sense to say "I don't know" or "we can't draw that conclusion".

[stephanurkel]

"The pen is mightier than the sword." No one ever thinks police will reinforce a policy based on text from a book, or that parents of kids everywhere will start chronicling how long a child is doing a chosen vocation to make sure they hit their 10, 000 hours. But this, this talk, is more than accountability... it's journalistic integrity. Which the world can use more of. Thank you Malcolm

[gfxpimp]

Malcolm should really write a book called "What I got wrong". I've read almost all of his books. I find them engrossing. But I think he gets many things wrong. This TED talk increases my respect for him. He should do more like this.

[PhoebeFayRuthLouise]

I appreciate the courage it takes to admit you were wrong and that your mistake had real negative impacts on people. Well done!

[PenandInk]

I have always liked Gladwell, but this...this admission of a mistake so honest and open...this is the way. We need way more of this honest discourse in society.

[AngelaNibley]

His curiosity and love for examining the truth is superseding his need to be defensive about being right and I think that’s a wonderful example to set for us all. If you can’t admit you’ve ever been wrong then you’ve failed to grow on two fronts. Normalize this!

[AThirstyPhilosopher]

More of this! Id love to see TED be a place for examples of admitting mistakes, apologizing in meaningful ways, reparations, tips to young people on how to think critically and see other perspectives.

[a.c.m.]

Does 'broken windows' really equal 'stop and frisk'? Can't the police respond to crimes---subway fare evasion, shoplifting, drug use in public--without violating people's rights?

[TonyL]

I love that someone who is respectful and intelligent as him is going out of his way to say he was wrong! I hope we can all have this level of humility and self understanding.

[kevinmeachem]

I would posit that “stop and frisk” is a misapplication of the broken window model. A broken window is an example of something wrong/illegal/broken that can be objectively observed. Thinking a young man walking down the street is likely a criminal, is highly subjective/biased thinking. Fixing a broken window is doing the small things that make an area seem as though no one cares about it; if people observe that someone cares about an area, makes others respect it more.

[megb]

I admire people who can admit they were wrong, and question the situation again.

[atfinthehouse]

Malcolm is a very insightful, introspective, intelligent human being. He might not be wrong. Societies change and evolve. But he’s willing to consider his own prior analyses and revisit, review and revise. Good for him. Good for us. Sets an example for others.

[adodgygeeza]

The broken windows bit of broken windows actually still works. Keeping public spaces in a good state of repair does make people treat them better.

[أحمونرحمن]

"It's not what a person doesn't know that gets them into trouble, it's what they know for sure that just ain't so.”

[alainc.]

The broken window theory is about prosecuting little crime to avoid escalation toward worst crime. Stop and frisk is about harassing people because of how they look. One has nothing to do with the other. One is based on facts, someone has committed a little crime, the other is based on an assumption that someone is a criminal. One is about education and the other is about discrimination. He still doesn’t know what he is talking about.

[tugcecar]

I must have read "The Tipping Point" quite a few times, enjoying every single time but also inevitably thinking that Gladwell was jumping to conclusions at certain "points". However, this talk is so impressive. The courage it must have taken to say these! I sense many sleepless nights. Thank you.

[kimsnyder]

Being able to see we had it wrong and being able to admit accountability... these are tools we all need for society to grow. Thank you.

[MichaelGilboe]

I commend him for admitting he was wrong about a major issue he was a part of. People learn. People change their minds. Circumstances change. And far too many people hold on to an old position without ever rethinking it. More people should do this.

[masterchinese]

"This is what I believe happened now."
Learning is journey, not a destination.