Is Taiwan Indefensible?

The fate of Taiwan is uncertain. As a revanchist China builds up forces near the island, the Biden administration is warning Beijing against an invasion, bolstering its defense with the sale of military hardware. While the United States does not officially recognize Taiwan’s government, it remains its strongest international backer. Beijing, meanwhile, sees Taiwan as lost territory, which needs to be “reunified” with the mainland. Recently, Beijing sent 25 warplanes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, the largest ever incursion into the region by the People’s Liberation Army. And some argue that the scale of China’s military presence has already surpassed anything the U.S. or Taiwan militaries could stop. It is indefensible, both militarily and from a political capital perspective; the notion of risking American soldiers in this geostrategic flashpoint unthinkable. Others say American credibility is actually on the line, that the U.S. could indeed win if it had to, and that its political posturing should reflect that.

So, here’s our question: Is Taiwan indefensible?

Presented in partnership with Foreign Affairs.

FOR THE MOTION:
Lyle J. Goldstein
Research Professor, China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
&
Charlie Glaser
Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University

AGAINST THE MOTION:
Elbridge Colby
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense
&
Elizabeth Larus
Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, University of Mary Washington

Timestamps:
(3:53) Prof. Charles Glaser argues Taiwan is indefensible
(8:30) Prof. Elizabeth Larus argues Taiwan is defensible
(13:19) Director of Defense Priorities, Lyle J. Goldstein argues Taiwan is indefensible
(17:21) Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Elbridge Colby argues Taiwan is defensible
(23:36) Would the U.S. have the will to fight against Taiwan?
(25:17) Dr. Goldstein on how the fight for Taiwan would unfold
(31:57) China’s rapid military expansion: implications for the Indo-Pacific
(38:39) How does Taiwan's role as the #1 chip manufacturer impact the conflict calculus?
(41:06) How would the U.S. justify going to war for Taiwan to the American public?
(44:24) Closing Arguments Begin

#taiwanisindefensible #intelligencesquared #iq2us #debate #taiwan #china #opentodebate

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[OpentoDebate]

Debate Timestamps:
(3:53) Prof. Charles Glaser argues Taiwan is indefensible
(8:30) Prof. Elizabeth Larus argues Taiwan is defensible
(13:19) Director of Defense Priorities, Lyle J. Goldstein argues Taiwan is indefensible
(17:21) Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Elbridge Colby argues Taiwan is defensible
(23:36) Would the U.S. have the will to fight against Taiwan?
(25:17) Dr. Goldstein on how the fight for Taiwan would unfold
(31:57) China’s rapid military expansion: implications for the Indo-Pacific
(38:39) How does Taiwan's role as the #1 chip manufacturer impact the conflict calculus?
(41:06) How would the U.S. justify going to war for Taiwan to the American public?
(44:24) Closing Arguments Begin

[timmychang]

If you just want to destroy a place, is that victory.

[kingifrit]

7:55 so you're willing to defend allies as long as there is no risk to you're not willing to defend american allies at all

[akp]

Bridge Colby and Lyle should do a debate on defensibility of Taiwan because this became a debate on whether we should or not. We need to understand the amount of resources it would take and whether we can mount a successful defense of the Taiwan Strait.

[timmychang]

This is not about only Taiwan but what happens to us afterwards.

[timmychang]

Reading state run propaganda gets you no where.

[miayle]

As a Taiwanese, I appreciate those of you who would like to defend Taiwan. 🥺

[samwariso]

The Kinmen Island, which is one of the Islands of Taiwan, is about 2km from Main Land China. So, in actual fact, Taiwan is not 100km from Main Land China as one of the debaters said, but a lot closer.

[swift]

‘’I watch Chinese military TV and believe every word’’

[inbeqvi]

When China is in the West it acts black but when it is in the East it acts white

[makeupbymochiii]

Lyle " I watch Chinese military propaganda everyday and they say their really strong so it must be true"

[saldivarlacson]

How many empires so mighty that gone down in history, Greece, Rome, The mongols, the british, etc. Next??

[romellejacinto]

I am a filipino and the Chinese are almost literally on our shores.

[hernanuliana]

The victory for the US is the no intervention. A war between China and Taiwan can severely affect the power projection of China, cause heavy loses to their military, terror to their neighbors who probably will go to the US allainces with little efforts and probably years of taiwanese resistance with all the cost in resources (Remember Irak and Afghanistan). The US can surround China sea region anyway with bases in sovereign countries without Taiwan and a force takeover by China will make this easy. China will never attack Taiwan militarily because they know all of this, it's a diplomatic game and cold war propaganda for both sides to continue the "big war scare" for the public to comply with the global power policies and military spend.

[dancerinmaya]

Colby: 9 dash-line--it was inherited from the ROC (the Taiwan you want to sacrifice 20k Americans to defend, and will lose)--except that ROC has 11 dash line. Did you have any objections?

[internetmall]

South China's a bunch of fish and rocks WITH" billions of barrels of natural gas and natural resources you forgot to mention the natural gas and resources OPPPS

[GL-tphg]

Lyle, question for you. Why US defending Israel? It was and is a big risk. Taiwan is a Island, it is more defendable than Israel.

[scottpine]

Interesting to watch this given current geopolitical develops

[johnyan]

I am a Taiwanese. A few questions and comments:
1) Taiwan is the most successful example under the US influence after WWII ~ politically, technologically, and economically . Taiwan is a shining pride for the US to showcase the undeveloped countries in the world what the US "value" can bring to them. Especially politically: Taiwan peacefully transits from dictatorship to the best democracy in Asia.
2) To say that China will have thousands of airplane and helicopters on Day 1 of invasion is wrong. China does not have "that" many such equipment. Furthermore, at least 1/2 of them will be on the ground for maintenance and preparing and, don't forget, China has to keep an eye on India, Vietnam, and even Japan, N. Korea, and Russia.
3) Either China or the combination of Taiwan/Japan/US loses the air supremacy, the war is over and it takes only days not weeks.
4) China heavily depends on imports of oil, electronic chips, and food. If the war erupts all of the above will be cut off.
5) The modern weapon capability is very deadly, accurate, and far reaching. Chinese naval vessels dare not show up in Taiwan Strait as long as the various anti-ship weapons in Taiwan are not eliminated.
6) If China loses the initial air battles, CCP may face uprising of internal opposition or the doubt of Chinese people. The risk is too great for CCP.
7) US and allies are capable of sealing off the Chinese seaports with modern sea mines.
8) Unless Taiwanese military surrenders, Chinese military forces will face more than one million armed resistance and average one tank/armored vehicle in every 250 meters.
9) To say China will use thousands of missiles/rockets to level off Taiwan is inaccurate. If China does not have the capability to land at least 500, 000 soldiers in Taiwan in a week (to put Taiwan under complete control), what is the meaning of the bombardment?
10) To believe CCP does not have the intent to extend its influence beyond Taiwan is innocent. Xi has said many times the concept of the "Community of Common Human Destiny". CCP is proud of themselves and wants to bring its ideology to "benefit" all humankind.

In conclusion, air supremacy is the KEY. The Chinese air forces is no match to the US/Japan/Taiwan combined. (I know Japan may NOT participate the war but Chinese must include it as the worst scenario. )

[satyasubhash]

Is Taiwan worth the risk is such a stupid question...

What do you think? China will stop exerting its power once it reaches the he first island chain... ??