What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.

As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber.

[jvc]

I live in NC (Raleigh-ish). I just got an email they are (finally) mailing my ballot.

[billybegood]

So the answer to "what does early voting data reveal?" is absolutely not a damn thing.
Saved you three minutes.

[orangeofmars]

We need complete access to early voting for at least Oct. 1-Nov. 5 everywhere. A major step to people getting more intelligent and enthusiastic in the voting process. Still there is so much effort on one of the Party's side (Republicans) to block voting in particular for voters that are not Republican. In WI where I live we had voting Statewide for at least 4 weeks before the election. Four years ago the Republicans in WI decided that Republican areas in WI did not have as much access to early voting so they decided to block it in all areas of WI. In my point of view it would have been best to work on enhancing early voting for all areas in WI where it is more difficult to vote early.

[lolly]

I was trying to find a list of the most accurate polling and I found the list at 538 put out. What’s really strange about it is most of the polls they use aren’t even on that list of accurate polls and if they are, they’re at the bottom of the list, and one of the pollsters, where would you rank in the top six, you don’t even use but polls that you rank at the bottom of the list you use on a regular basis. Make that makes sense.

[michaelscott]

I remember when experts looked like a g man for the gov. Now they look like they are about to role a joint, not complaining just a thing I noticed

[matthewbardos]

Early voting data > polls all day long.

[idstandard]

somewhere along the way somebody either begged borrowed or stole 5/38’s soul
Just smarty-pants kids with no rudder

[MrKKmusic]

Really… bad use of data? But the news is so good!

[ranidhavan]

I would rather analyze early voting data than polling. This is a lazy take.

[joncarroll]

Unless the state is counting early votea now and releasing tallies, early voting data is basically just a slightly more informed guess of the election's eventual result.

[jillkrisher]

Why can’t we go back to when you vote? Is private

[h.carson]

Gee... I want to vote for a socialist, nanny state future.
Kamala would help us get there.
Stalin would be so proud!

[TrangNguyen-kfzy]

That guy trump is so dangerous for our country. Vote 💙💙💙💙

[Thousandaire-no]

I am all Vote Blue. But I am 100% certain Trump will win, or already has. Germany 1932. That's us.

[splunge]

It is better than astrology - and I've seen a few of those videos in my feed...

[meganalves]

I’m going to wait until Election Day to
vote & I’m leaning Trump not sure if it’s going to change Harris needs to do town hall or interviews where she’s questioned on her policy flip flops among many other things

[manuel]

are you maga tiis 2024 you were in 2020 and 2016

[smb-zfbd]

The movement toward voting before election day is kinda sad. You once took an hour out of your day to "do your civic duty". I recall the ladies who passed out cookies, the banners, folks dressed up, neighbors and friends. My parents even had (horrors) election parties for both sides. Folks used calculators and checked each others figures on air!! We had lots of food, drinking, cheering, booing but in the end, "Don't forget ya'll are coming over Saturday for dinner."

[TrangNguyen-kfzy]

Thank you very much for your supporting Harris 🙏🙏🙏💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[dougoneill]

I don't take a blind bit of notice of polling, mainly because I complete polls for money and I just put in any old tripe.