The Ukraine Air-War in 2024 - Interviewing Professor Justin Bronk

While far more asymmetric than the fighting on the ground, the air-war in Ukraine has demonstrated many of the same features - Adaptation, attrition, and the importance of resupply and sustainment.

Going into 2024, it's worth asking how two years of full-scale fighting have impacted the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces and how the fighting might be expected to evolve in 2024 as Ukraine converts to Western platforms as Russia pushes to derive more benefit from its significant advantage in airframes and munitions like glide-bombs.

Obviously, all views expressed by Professor Bronk are his own – and likewise for those views I express over the course of this interview.

Patreon:

Relevant Reading/sourcing (partial as travelling without full access to my research notes):

RUSI Biography – Justin Bronk

RUSI – Bronk, Reynolds & Watling (2022) – The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence

RUSI - Bronk (2022) - The mysterious case of the missing Russian air force

RUSI - Bronk (2020) - Russian and Chinese air combat trends

RUSI - Watling and Reynolds (2024) - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024

Featured A-10 article

The described A-10 meme (not fully accurate it must be said)…

Featured article on F-16 training

MiG-31 accident

Example of how widely reporting on Russian FF claims spread:

Featured image of PAC-3 manufacturing

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
I would also restate that Justin’s and my opinions are individually our own – and that he has not approved any of my comments nor vice versa.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:58 — What Are We Talking About?
00:01:43 — Prof. Justin Bronk
00:02:08 — The Evolving Air War
00:05:14 — The GBAD Transition
00:08:18 — KIT Systems
00:12:38 — Patriot Ambush Tactics
00:18:12 — Friendly Fire And The A-50
00:25:15 — A-10
00:29:39 — Sustainability
00:59:48 — Closing Thoughts & The US Role
01:01:28 — An Open Mic On Risks And Issues
01:07:50 — Creativity & Material Limits
01:09:42 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

Obviously I need to extend a very special thanks to Justin for agreeing to do this interview. He has long been one of the most requested guests so it was great to have him on the channel. As noted in the description, please regard statements by both of us as solely our own (noting however that I only included the A-10 meme in the slides because he brought it up first...).

Also thanks to all of you who've been great despite my disrupted schedule over the last fortnight. I'm hoping that this coming week will mark something of a 'return to normal' but we'll see.

[Craeshen]

The patriot road trip is definitely playing its greatest hits.

[talesofcanterbury]

The Last 10 minutes of this are utterly terrifying and absolutely Outstanding analysis by Proffessor Bronk. If the US doesn’t support Ukraine it will be a disaster for the US and Ukraine and the comment that we won’t know when we’ve gone over the cliff till months after we have salutary

[xAgLyx]

Honestly, it is insane, that a channel like Perun can produce content this good and frequent for us viewers. Thank you.

[ClemensKatzer]

The outline/outlook of 1:03:00-1:07:50 is for me the most important takeaway from this video. For most of us here there's probably not much "new" to it, but having it spelled out so clearly is quite ... depressing. I wish those 4 minutes would be broadcasted as part of evening news in all Western countries a few times. Thanks to Professor Bronk!

[LeonardTavast]

Dr. Bronk is one of my favourite war researchers. I recommend his conversations with Ward Carroll for anyone wanting to hear more from him.

[davidchongkwan]

The last 11 minutes are as concise a summary of the enormity of how foolish the Western democracies will be if they fail Ukraine, as I have seen.

[charly]

Wow the most compelling and comprehensive argument I have heard on the necessity of urgently putting everyone's focus on this war. The conclusion is quit chilling

[andrewrossy]

Wow. That last 10 minute 'Open Mic' from Professor Bronk is spine chilling!

[lousyguitar]

Justin Bronk is one of the few people on these subjects who really knows what he’s talking about. When he speaks or publishes, drop what you’re doing, sit up and pay attention. Perun’s episodes are always knowledgeable, in depth and a must watch; but this one, with Justin, is outstanding. 👏👏👏

[domusdiana]

I think this was the most important interview on this channel ever! It needs to be heard everywhere.

[mikeck]

Justin is a beast. To get where he has gotten in the military aviation consulting/advising community without having been in military aviation or the airforce (of any nation) is a tribute to his knowledge on the subject. When Air Force generals ask you what you think about something air power related, you know what your talking about

[zagabog]

Its refreshing to be able to hear someone who knows what they are taking about, who is not trying to push some kind of political position. Thanks for arranging this interview.

[andyl]

Justin has easily been one of the very best guests you've had. No rose-coloured glasses or flag waving; he gave it straight up, and it was sobering, disheartening but also motivating. I hope you can have him on again.

[virginccyy]

This is one of the greatest collaborations in YouTube History.

[judithcampbell]

It's Sunday and the great Perun! And today he is with Dr Bronk. It doesn't get any better than this! Thank you 💛 both!

[Dennan]

thank you perun for starting this series, i am alone with handicap in sweden, your episodes every week is something i love and look forward for every week, i been with you sense your first defensy video. <3

[williamlloyd]

Summary with lots of points hadn’t considered re Ukrainian refugees, security guarantees, etc. Thank you for posting this interview!

[rositasultana]

Great guest, informed and with a very clear understanding of the issues.
Thanks, Perun, for every effort you put in these weekly informative presentations!

[matthewcarroll]

I really appreciate Perun's balenced perspective in sharing facts with genuine compassion for the real life suffering for those impacted by war. Please keep up what you are doing. Your channel is one of the few sources I trust when it comes to information on this war.