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'Causal Inference and Causal Discovery in Climate Science'
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Speaker: Marlene Kretschmer is Postdoc in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading.
Abstract:Teleconnections are sources of predictability for regional weather and climate but the relative contributions of different teleconnections to regional anomalies are usually not understood and often highly contested. To close this important knowledge gap, progress is needed in analysing and quantifying teleconnection pathways. Here we argue for the use of causal inference theory and causal networks to overcome these challenges. We describe some of the key concepts of this theory and illustrate them with concrete examples of atmospheric teleconnections. We further discuss the particular challenges and advantages these imply for climate science.
Abstract:Teleconnections are sources of predictability for regional weather and climate but the relative contributions of different teleconnections to regional anomalies are usually not understood and often highly contested. To close this important knowledge gap, progress is needed in analysing and quantifying teleconnection pathways. Here we argue for the use of causal inference theory and causal networks to overcome these challenges. We describe some of the key concepts of this theory and illustrate them with concrete examples of atmospheric teleconnections. We further discuss the particular challenges and advantages these imply for climate science.
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