Iran's Missile Strike on Israel - The attack, defence & Israel's counter-strike

For decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions.

This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets.

What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response.

In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.

Patreon:

Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes

Readings and Sources:

Iran’s Ballistic and Cruise missiles – CSIS 2020

Featured Washington Post piece

CRS – Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs

Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat 2020

Guardian article including the “almost certainly trigger all-out war” quote

CSIS - missile threat profile on Emad

Tweet by Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN

RUSI - Iran's failed offensive against Israel

Reporting on Israeli strike on Iran

And Iranian warnings regarding it

Included IRGC statement on limited systems being used

Featured Iranian article on the missile attack as a “sub-threshold” response

Featured or relevant reporting on the Iranian missile attack and/or shot exchange issues

Reporting on types of Iranian missiles used

Denial of Dimona targeting

Suleimani strike reporting (2020)

Iran's 2020 missile strikes on US bases

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:55 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 — Caveats
00:03:50 — The Syria Strike
00:05:56 — The Attacks
00:21:19 — Purpose & Result
00:29:36 — Estimates & Costing
00:34:32 — Winners and Losers?
00:38:54 — Retaliation Options
00:50:55 — The Conflict Continuum
01:00:00 — What Now?
01:00:41 — Channel Update

[PerunAU]

So this episode had to be re-worked several times over the course of the week as new developments, well, developed, but eventually we have to stop and talk about what we've observed so far. And with Israel and Iran both, for the moment making de-escalatory sounds (at least towards each other, albeit not towards other areas of the region where military activities are ongoing), I thought today was the right time to go ahead with a release.

Thank you as always for your patience and support, and I'll see you all again next week.

[giantnanomachine]

50:41
My daily life: "This meeting could have been an email"
Middle East Diplomats' daily life: "This email could have been a missile strike"

[venanziadorromatagni]

„Communication in the region has a propensity to become kinetic.“
- Perun 2024

[KapitainZino]

„You can probably argue, the most effective anti-ballistic defence system of the night was not the American AG-system or the Israeli Arrow, but the no doubt exemplary efforts of the Iranian quality control!“ I love these brilliant presentations refined with this fantastic humour!

[kemarisite]

As an American who is also overcleared (every janitor and gardener in my company has a "secret" clearance), the "hilariously overcleared air national guardsman" really got me.

[joseantoniodepilares]

"Zap Brannighan school of counter air defence".

Futurama gets a well deserved cameo in Perun.

[wilburnprice]

"Iran's friends have a shorter lifespan than would normally be expected", dry humor.

[simonrodehn]

At this rate I suspect Perun’s next presentation will be covering the event live.

[tortenschachtel]

"This missile strike could have been an email."
Things i never expected to hear ...

[THEJaManes]

Well, well, well If it isn't the power point I have been waiting for all week

[darksnakenerdmaster]

Here it is, the hard-hitting and in-the-weeds analysis we've been needing. Power point man delivers again

[BakerVS]

I'm not an expert in uranium enrichment, but I VERY much doubt you could accidently enrich uranium to 83%, instead of the normal 3-5% needed for power generation. That's like wanting to make beer, but accidentally making double strength vodka.

[rcomid]

Iranian fan here. Thanks for covering this shit show

[Stevieoggy]

Mein Schatz, der Powerpoint Kollege aus Australien hat mal wieder was gedropped, geh mit den Kindern für eine Stunde zum Spielplatz!🎉

[Yacovo]

Skirmishing without declaration is terrifying with the firepower involved. Thanks for the video.

[dozer]

Coffee, check! Perun, check! Cinnamon roll, CHECK! SUNDAY CAN START NOW.

[rasmusalmqvist]

Some people listen to phonk music in their headset when sweating at the gym. I listen to Perun.

[Scottagram]

I love the long con. This whole channel really is just an advertisement for your gaming vids

[Earl]

Perun: prepping a long planned video.

Someone: "lets stirr shit up"

Perun: "ah shit, here we go again"

[JackoNorm]

Your upload schedule is perfect. You always just in time for me to fall asleep to your video on Sunday night (I'm same timezone) and then watch/listen to on the way to work in the morning. It's also fantastic to hear an Aussie online, and one who clearly knows his shit.
Keep it up, Perun.