How to avoid the next financial crisis? | MICHEL GIRARDIN | TEDxGeneva

Over the last 6 centuries, financial
crises occur for almost always the
same reason: we increase our
debts to unsustainable levels, be
it in the government, corporate or
households sectors.
The problem is that no financial
institution is willing to tackle
credit bubbles before they burst
into severe recessions. Central
Banks are only ready to intervene
once financial crises take place
rather than prior to them. Their
main justification for doing so lies
in the difficulty of measuring excessive
indebtedness. The problem
is that there is no guarantee
whatsoever that the massive
liquidity injections by the Central
Banks post financial crisis will
be effective in jumpstarting the
economies away from recession.
Detecting bubbles is no easy task
but not an impossible one. In this
talk, I show some simple measures
to assert whether debt has
indeed become unsustainable. A dual Swiss and French citizen, Michel Girardin teaches Economics and Finance at the University of Geneva.

His video course on investment management ranks no 1 in popularity out of 980 Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) in Business on Coursera’s platform and has been followed by more than 650’000 students worldwide since 2016.

He holds a PhD and a B.A in Economics from the University of Lausanne as well as a Master of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics.

Michel has more than 25 years’ experience as Chief

[raychristopher]

Been watching, listening, and paying attention to all of predictions and forecasts since early Covid. He hasn't disappointed yet 👌

[perstromback]

This was a strong TED talk. Michel is very talented in explaining recurring macro economic events by comparative examples.

[bluestefan]

I already follow him in the course Investment management and I confirm my idea that Michel is the best one in explaining financial topics I've ever seen

[joedunphy]

Amazing how prescient this is, 3 months later the central bank did just this with few guardrails, and now we are vulnerable to that decision.

[elmemo]

Excelent and timely advise from professor Girardin

[alekseyko]

Thank you Michel, as always, you can show a complex issue and explain it with a smile and simple wording. Good speech!

[oliolioli]

I love this kind of conferences from TEDX because they are short and go to the point. In 20 minutes you have the main idea. Many thanks. Il n'y a pas en français? j'aimerais bien que d'autres puissent en profiter. Merci professeur Girardin.

[silviabernardi]

Merci Michel de nous apporter cette lecture si claire de réalités si complexes

[robhabibi]

Well articulated, thank you. I sat through your course on Financial Markets on Coursera. My question is: Where does the inverted yield curve play in your scenario? Is that one of the factors that you look at? Would be great to have a white paper on a more comprehensive understanding of all the critical factors that play a key role in predicting the next financial crisis.

[valkondruk]

Great talk, Michel! Many thanks from a grateful student.

[JayDennisMurphy]

A concise and understandable explanation of financial crises. Thank you! (Thanks to Corsera for sharing this.)

[liondragon]

First bank ever wasn't created in 1472. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is the oldest bank still in operation. Banking was well developed by the 14th century.

[HusicDejan]

Best way to avoid a financial crisis is to stop financial engineering and manipulation by governments and their respective central banks where their own monetary policies inflate bubbles then bailout those who drank too much, with the money of those who did the right thing and did not..

[obeydmax]

Feds ease up on Interest rates for too long expecting Corporations' Expansionism, but Corporations overleveraged thinking impossible to have a real estate bubble or overextended itself because of greed. Recently they just did a stock buy backs.

[martin-kxsu]

Thanks Dr. Michel.
Hippocrates: "Before curing someone, ask him if he is willing to give up the things that made him sick."
I will post this Youtube link on the FED twitter, what is said is very valuable!

[justinwalworth]

Interesting how much of this looks different or completely wrong now that we’ve seen 2020 through the first half of 2022.

[toukyoumaster]

I enjoyed this talk as well. Sadly the recession began less than a month after this talk was held and was caused by the coronavirus, though I believe that deep down there would have been a recession anyway and that this recession has yet to have been uncovered as of June.

[lug.]

People need to borrow because of wage stagnation. Make the wages go up with the cost of living and people won't need to borrow that much.

[VedeninaMS]

Where to find/ how one calculates Debt cost (%GDP) ? many thanks

[miked]

I believe that TARP was copied from the EU. Am I wrong?