Three experts break down the shocking rise in May employment

Jason Furman, professor at Harvard's Kennedy School and former CEA chairman, Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, join "Squawk Box" with their initial reaction to the May jobs report.

Employment stunningly rose by 2.5 million in May and the jobless rate declined to 13.3%, according to data Friday from the Labor Department that was far better than economists had been expecting and indicated that an economic turnaround could be close at hand.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to drop by 8.33 million and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% from April’s 14.7%. If Wall Street expectations had been accurate, it would have been the worst figure since the Great Depression.

As it turned out, May’s numbers showed the U.S. may well be on the road to recovery after its fastest plunge in history.

“It seems the damage from the nationwide lockdown was not as severe or as lasting as we feared a month ago,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

The stock market roared higher following the report as the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 800 points as of 11 a.m. ET. Government bond yields raced higher as well, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury most recently at 0.91%.

President Donald Trump expressed pleasure at the report, directing two tweets to CNBC.

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[mike]

PPP is a big factor in this. As a small business owner, with this program during the month of May a third of my employees that were furloughed (as they worked in the mandated closed showroom part of my business) miraculously became “employed” again through this program, even though they weren’t brought back to work until restrictions eased a week ago. While I am very grateful for the program, what it did was skew the numbers with government subsidized employment rather than natural rehiring last month.

[adamw]

The numbers were manipulated, They changed the way they calculate it to get a better number. Look it up!

[paulgraham]

I don't believe the hype. What 3 professionals?

[breannamartins]

Also I’m a teacher and teacher and city layoffs are just starting

[outofnaija]

Surprising numbers. I wonder what this says about the electorate. It's just 2.5 million people but considering the sectors that did so well (those that involve the physical interaction of people), what does this say about what those people think about the coronavirus? Maybe this is inconsequential because thoughts about the virus were probably trumped by the need to earn a living. however, it's interesting to analyse what this says about support for Trump or Biden going forward.

[Badohunter]

Anyone noticed the spirits in his house at 0:23

[deadname...]

If they were really experts they would have seen this coming.

[frostmelody]

trump's done it! You gotta hand it to him

[jimechols]

Back to the same ole same ole jobs we had before the pandemic. India style service jobs that pay low. Wow super economy recovery trump. Where are the 60000 year jobs with full benefits in a factory or industrial.

[jesse]

Damn, I guess Trump was right about V shape recovery.

[raoulspringsteen]

I am disappointed on this comment section. I was fully expecting more liberal whining in this. I am sure you are all out cutting yourselves and writing strongly worded email.

[Mrrossj]

Golden Nugget Casinos opened up. Staff called back. Every thing sanitized. No customers. How long before staff is fired again?

[jbw]

Lets see what they say in another week.

[sams]

I can’t see how this employment # is accurate. Seems a bit manipulated.

[mikesmith-pjxz]

Reports out today that the job numbers are in accurate due to a miscalculation. Per CNBC:

“The unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday. 
The agency admitted the real unemployment rate likely exceeds 16%.
That’s due an error in how furloughed workers were treated in the data sample. April’s unemployment rate would have been nearly 20% absent that same error. “

[kt]

I guess they got the data from places like Walmart, Kmart, Walgreens, CVS a few grocery stores and gas station, we have hospitals laying people off smh. I'm not sure that record is correct with 40 million people on unemployment.

[breannamartins]

How is any of this good? It was all the temp layoffs

[Lucastos]

Temporary Layoffs, Unknown 2nd Wave, PPP avoided layoffs coming this fall. This is not the solid Great news that proves the economy is great. These are talking points, with a purpose to get the remaining holdouts to FOMO, before the dump.

[m.burgesszbikowski]

Shocking. And we tried so hard to keep Trump as the

[debbyhughson]

Dentist had a good month! Think I picked wrong career! lol