China's Best Possible Next Move with John Mearsheimer #realpolitik

Talk given on December 18th 2013.
Source

John Mearsheimer discusses how china shall behave in the 21st century.China in the international system shall want to be powerful relative to it's neighbors.China shall want to dorminate Asia.China will observe the realist playbook.

The century of humiliation, also known as the hundred years of national humiliation, is the term used in China to describe the period of intervention and subjugation of the Qing dynasty and the Republic of China by Western powers and Japan from 1839 to 1949.

China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of more than 1.4 billion. China spans five geographical time zones and borders 14 countries, the second most of any country in the world after Russia.

Chinese nationalists in the 1920s and the 1930s dated the Century of Humiliation to the mid-19th century, on the eve of the First Opium War amidst the dramatic political unraveling of Qing China that followed.

What is the concept of realism?
realism, in philosophy, is the viewpoint that accords to things that are known or perceived an existence or nature which is independent of whether anyone is thinking about or perceiving them.

Significant characters in Realism.
Hans Joachim Morgenthau
He was a German-American jurist and political scientist. He was one of the major twentieth-century figures in the study of international relations. As a Classical realist, he believed that a pessimistic vision of human nature is reflected in politics and international relations. Hans Morgenthau in his book Politics Among Nations states that “politics is governed by objective laws that have their roots in human nature".

Realism as a Discipline
In the discipline of International Relations (IR), realism is a school of thought that emphasizes the competitive and conflictual side of international relations. Realism’s roots are often said to be found in some of humankind’s earliest historical writings, particularly Thucydides’ history of the Peloponnesian War, which raged between 431 and 404 BCE. Thucydides, writing over two thousand years ago, was not a ‘realist’ because IR theory did not exist in named form until the twentieth century. However, when looking back from a contemporary vantage point, theorists detected many similarities in the thought patterns and behaviors of the ancient world and the modern world. They then drew on his writings, and that of others, to lend weight to the idea that there was a timeless theory spanning all recorded human history. That theory was named ‘realism’.

What are the 4 types of realism?
Contents
1 Classical realism.
2 Liberal realism or the English school or rationalism.
3 Neorealism or structural realism.
4 Neoclassical realism.
5 Realist constructivism.

Realism is one of the dominant schools of thought in international relations theory, theoretically formalizing the Realpolitik statesmanship of early modern Europe.

The key point in understanding realism is that it is a theory that argues that unsavory actions like war are necessary tools of statecraft in an imperfect world and leaders must use them when it is in the national interest. This is wholly rational in a world where the survival of the state is pre-eminent. After all, if one’s state ceases to exist due to an attack or internal collapse, then all other political objectives cease to have much practical relevance. That being said, a leader must be extremely cautious when deciding where and when to use military power. It is worth noting that the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, undertaken as part of the Global War on Terror, was opposed by most leading realists as a misuse of power that would not serve US national interests. This was due to the possibility that the disproportionate use of US military force would cause blowback and resentment in the region. Indeed, in this case, realism yielded strong results as a tool of analysis, as the rise of the Islamic State group in the years after the Iraq invasion demonstrated.

Realism as a theory claims to explain the reality of international politics. It emphasizes the constraints on politics that result from humankind’s egoistic nature and the absence of a central authority above the state. For realists, the highest goal is the survival of the state, which explains why states’ actions are judged according to the ethics of responsibility rather than by moral principles. The dominance of realism has generated a significant strand of literature criticizing its main tenets. However, despite the value of the criticisms, which will be explored in the rest of this book, realism continues to provide valuable insights and remains an important analytical tool for every student of International Relations.

#realism
#structuralrealism
#internationalrelations
#internationalpolitics
#politics

[angelg]

Nobel Peace Prize worthy! We wish the UN, EU, US and NATO to listen to Prof. Mearsheimer attentively and try to follow carefully his advice and counsel.

[HugotheBrainwasher]

I agree with his balancing coalition but the talk was in 2013 and he included Russia. He's basing his thoughts on balance of power logic. He's actually right on how it should have been. However, the west instead did the opposite and kept pushing Russia further and further by creating a security dilemma between NATO and Russia that eventually pushed Russia to China. Russia would no way allow itself 2 security dilemmas on its borders, one with NATO and one with China.

[mikiknops]

Why people like him are not in Pentagon, Kremlin and Brussels. World would be completely different place.

[xaquinlopezgomez]

Long before March 24 2022. A lot of things have change with China-Russia relationship.

[xaquinlopezgomez]

How the truth shines when you are a master in humbly and wisely exposing it.

[davideldred.campingwilder]

...this man is the only actual Political Scientist that's talking ANY sense at this crucial time in history. Yes, Russia (Moscow) is ruled by very rich oligarches, but it was NATO that encroached on their space.

[Cindy-upoj]

"Loved" What's good for the goose is good for the gander" Johnny Alameida was blind but he could see through everything. This War IMHO is exposing the legitimacy of the United States, NATO, EU and UN. As an American I was always taught that we are peace makers not law breakers. Could this be a World War 3? But God...

[helloimthemailman]

Interesting about his short view on India. I think the Ukraine / Russia conflict has shown where India will be. A relativity neutral stance with one foot slightly in to the eastern empires rise. Remember, the conflict between India and China is relativity minor. A few skirmishes in the mountains that could be easily resolved between both sides. There is also an impregnable wall of the Himalayas between them. There is no Hannibal who can march over this. Therefore, the India / China dispute is a moot point. The "Quad" will never be a quad. It will rest on US, UK and Aus with a couple of minor players to balance Chinas rise.
The US empire still has the cultural and military pillars of a major empire, but China is / will dominate on the economic pillar very soon. The other two pillars will follow the economics in due course.
The US empire is in terminal decline. The eastern empire will rise. Its inevitable. This is where the majority of our species live (Eurasia). There is no alternative. Unless the west start 'thumping'. And this is a great concern.

[jamesmurphy]

Chinese next move supply Russia with weapons

[Bob-sbsp]

Nothing comes without conditions....they both have..

[dimitriosmargaroff]

Three months down the track it is all changing eh⁉️😆😂

[beezibee]

Every country in this world is striving for the same thing ... not to be a slave to anyone. Ask a black man.

[petervote]

But China doesn't need to dominate Asia in order to "roam" in Western Hemisphere. There is no connection between China domination of Asia and roaming. If China wants to "roam" in a certain region, China will deploy resources to do so. Asian domination is not a factor. Asian domination can hinder Chinese roaming outside of Asia as China will have to deploy more resources in Asia to maintain dominance.

[jamesmurphy]

What is the Chinese military budget
Right
Defense spending will rise by 7.1% to 1.45 trillion yuan ($230.16 billion)

[untilcrazy]

Mr. John Mearsheim is wrong here on one basic thing: except for Japan and India who have their own ideas about China, most other Asian countries should find the US more a threat than China to them. Why? If Mr. Mearsheim was correct, why would the US Indo-Pacific strategy not met with enthusiasm? How the Indonesian foreign minster told Blinken just sit down and have a coffee and Blinken had to cut back his trip in Asia not going to Thailand? Why only Singapore in Asia (except Japan) condemned Russia? The purpose of the US is its own selfish political goal to maintain its hegemony in Asia, but China is to promote a practical win-win economic prosperity strategy for the whole of Asia that has already started some years ago. The US should not mess up other regions, Europe included, and go back to your own country take care of your economy. Your stock market, inflation, property market, credit market, even commodities market are going to crash. Take care of your own people is the better way for your people, not playing games.

[atb]

He is damn right. Quad and AUKUS are just two examples but there are many more and they are only intensifying. I think the Phillipines is a good example they are getting ships from Japan, anti ship missiles from India, radars and equipment from USA and training exercises with the Australian Navy. There are thousands examples of countries all over Asia building their capacity together to contain China. Will it work? Time will tell.

[loumcast]

Prof. John Mearsheimer is nothing but common sense and genius.

[annietang]

It's true....Chinese people in mainland China often say "帝国主义亡我之心不死啊。 中华民族一定要伟大复兴" which means "imperialism (west) really wants us to die. The Chinese must work hard and thrive." 落后就要挨打""If you are left behind and weak, you are going to be beaten by the stronger ones. "We are constantly alert...because China was beaten by western empires, Japanese empire, the US in the past 150 years. The prosperity and peace we have now is very precious. Hilary Clinton once said 'Ring China with defense' but China never wants to invade others (Taiwan belongs to China btw, check history. there are leftover issues still) ... China just wants to survive. I've talked to some military people . They often say we must cherish peace. It's precious. We should never forget the past. We must protect and defend our motherland.

Westerners might find it hard to understand... I see you as a threat, but you are so afraid of us????
Yes. China just wants to survive, develop and prosper peacefully. And China knows that if we were weak....we would be bullied and beaten.

[pooi-hoongchan]

J Measheimer assumes the position that western geopolitical thought applies to the Chinese. This is fundamentally not right.