Small Drones & Loitering Munitions in Ukraine - The terrifying rise of cheap precision

Description:
While the news often focuses on the role of large, expensive systems in the Ukraine war (think of the attention given to tanks, aircraft, or MLRS and SAM systems in recent weeks and months) some of the most omnipresent and disruptive systems have actually been terrifyingly cheap and accessible.

Off-the-shelf commercial drones converted for military use have been deployed by the truckload, while some of Russia's more successful weapons have been comparatively cheap loitering munitions and kamikaze drones like the Iranian Shahed and Russian Lancet. Videos of equipment destroyed by drones that might cost a thousandth of the price have become image of the war across social media.

In this video, I examine the use of these (often civilian) systems in the war in Ukraine, look at international developments, and ask what lessons we can take from the terrifying rise of cheap sensor and cheaper precision on the battlefield.

Patreon:

Caveats and corrections:
I mispronounce "Shahed" on several occasions

I refer to the Mavic 2 and 3 together - they are not comparable, with the 3 being far more common as a drone supplied to lower level units in Ukraine

I call the Norwegian Black Hornet Drone Danish (big oof)

I refer to to the saturation of drones across the front - I should clarify that the reporting on that point is anecdotal and may only relate to specific sections of the front where drone activity is that its most dense.

I also wish to be clear that I do not at all endorse the modification or use of drones for purposes other than those legally allowable in your jurisdiction.

Sources & Further reading:

RUSI - Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022

JOINT AIR POWER COMPETENCE CENTRE (JAPCC) - A Comprehensive Approach to Countering Unmanned Aircraft Systems

JAPCC - Denial of Spectrum Denial

Department of Defense Announces Successful Micro-Drone Demonstration

UK on drone developments

My thanks to those in Ukraine and elsewhere who consulted in relation to this episode.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — OPENING WORDS
00:01:23 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:04:09 — MEET THE UAS
00:04:17 — Classifying Drones
00:07:59 — Another Take On The Divide
00:08:32 — SYRIA AND THE DONBAS
00:09:53 — The War In The Donbas
00:11:54 — WEAPONS OF THE UKRAINE WAR
00:12:15 — "Mavics"
00:13:47 — Thermal & Heavier Drones
00:15:25 — Loitering Munitions
00:16:23 — "FPVs"
00:18:03 — CAUTION AND CAVEATS
00:18:13 — A Very Public Side Of War? 00:19:03 — Publication Biases
00:20:06 — Security & Secrecy
00:21:13 — A Personal Warning
00:22:13 — DRONE USAGE
00:22:18 — Employment At All Levels
00:23:17 — Reconnaissance
00:24:55 — Artillery Correction
00:27:30 — Coordination
00:28:41 — Strike Role
00:34:18 — Whet It Goes Wrong - RU & UA Drops
00:36:11 — Fear & Isolation
00:38:07 — THE RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE
00:40:33 — LOITERING MUNITIONS
00:40:43 — The Lancet Threat
00:41:35 — The Shahed Campaign
00:42:22 — Ukrainian Loitering Munitions
00:43:09 — LOGISTICS & SUPPLY
00:43:18 — The Role Of Volunteers
00:44:35 — Artisanal Work At Industrial Scale
00:46:15 — COUNTERS & EFFECTIVENESS
00:47:23 — Electronic Warfare
00:48:51 — New Problems, Old Solutions
00:49:54 — The Very Old (and Odd)
00:51:34 — Counter-operator Operations
00:52:39 — GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
00:52:55 — Tactical Tools
00:53:54 — Swarm Technology
00:55:27 — Deployability
00:56:02 — Networking And Going Solo
00:57:15 — A THREAT PROFILED
00:57:22 — Extreme Accessibility
00:58:18 — The Shot Exchange Problem
00:59:16 — Nowhere To Hide
01:00:07 — LESSONS & NEXT STEPS
01:00:17 — The Battle For Awareness & Precision
01:01:24 — Availability & Attritability
01:03:25 — The Drones Will Get Better
01:04:12 — Need For Efficient Countermeasures
01:05:08 — Training & Doctrine
01:06:19 — Evolving Threats
01:06:57 — CONCLUSIONS
01:07:41 — CHANNEL UPDATE

[PerunAU]

Happy to release this one a little earlier this week. My thanks to those in Ukraine and elsewhere who contributed to this episode by providing on-the-ground insights and expert input. I would also like to offer my commiserations to the peoples of Syria and Türkiye impacted by the recent earthquakes. Suggestions of charities with a good reputation doing work in those areas would be most welcome.

[James-jstr]

Just fyi: the gentleman at 43:20 is Estonian, not Ukrainian. And the cat's name is "Rosin" - or raisin in Estonian. I was with Harri - the Estonian guy - and we rescued her together at a destroyed monastery just outside of Izyum - which is "Raisin" in Ukrainian - hence the name. But yes, Harri has delivered literally tonnes and tonnes of aid to Ukrainians via his NGO - Ukraine Aid Ops.

[MarcRavingMad]

"It takes an awful lot of hard work to make something look easy."

Like preparing and delivering weekly PowerPoint presentations on complex topics that simultaneously inform and entertain in a way that seems effortless?

Your hard work is acknowledged and greatly appreciated.

[Rhino_Aus]

I used to design these things. On survivorship bias of "why don't they shoot them down": It's really, really difficult (EDIT: with small arms, EWAR+SPAAGs etc are a totally different story obviously). Not to go into the specifics of testing I've participated in and witnessed but, for example, a Mavic is about 20cm long, at 200m up, that's a roughly ~3.5MOA "vital zone" target (yes I know it's larger unfolded, but a hit to a rotor is not fatal, just ask every tree I've crashed into with mine!). That's about on par with the mechanical accuracy of service rifles from ideal shooting positions.

Now consider that the drone is not perfectly stationary when hovering, the shooter is in an extremely unfamiliar, unergonomic, and unsupported shooting position, has only the 3.5MOA dot in the sky as the target reference (no big piece of paper with concentric rings), most issued rifles in the conflict have iron sights or an unmagnified red dot, the rifles zero and bullet drop will be completely wrong for firing straight upwards, the shooter only has a few moments to locate, identify, and engage the target before it releases the payload, and the shooter has no reference for where their shots are falling relative the target to correct. It's really difficult.

Even with something like the SMASH sighting system (which has it's own flaws), small arms rifle fire against smaller drones is going to be incredibly ineffectual to the point where if in the situation I'd almost certainly just try to take cover/run than waste time shooting at it. *Maybe* equipped with a shotgun and a (probably theoretical) loading of something like #2 buckshot with a tight choke and flitecontrol wad *might* work, but a service rifle simply won't. Not saying it doesn't happen, but it would be incredibly hard to achieve. Larger drone or lower altitude and the equation changes, but I think this definitely explains it. It's far easier to say "just shoot it down" than to actually go out and do it!

[captainyossarian]

My grandpa in WW2 would have loved drones as he was an Artillery Observer and frequently had to put himself in harm's way to do his job. He also explained that an observer sees things on the battlefield that they'd rather forget about. Having caught a few of these drone vids, I fully understand what he meant. We're fragile bags of water and minerals.

[ephraimwolobah]

"BABE WAKE UP. PERUN JUST DROPPED ANOTHER POWER POINT." And here I am so early.

[Warfoki]

Blinkist is probably the most hilariously ironic sponsor possible for this channel.

- Whom should we have to advertise our product that is all about condensing content and blitzing through info?
- I know, the guy who makes hour long slideshow presentations!

[MrDeelightful]

Big props for the warning about drone footage being a bit visceral. When a creator is covering material that can be found pretty easily on Google and is as confronting as it is, it's a responsible thing to inform their audience of. Good man.

[RabbitsAteMyCheese]

Perun, once again, you astound me. Here we are almost a year later, and your hour long PowerPoint presentations are one of the highlights of my week. Your comments last year of "who ever would watch this?" Has been proven. Fantastic work.

[QuixEnd]

I remember in black ops 2 when 4 rotor drones were absurdly futuristic. I never could've imagined how much better and cheaper they'd get in just a decade.

[terminalautonomy]

@16.37
These are our drones! The FPV drones are our AQV 100 series, also known as Scalpels. We were founded in 2022 by veterans and a Forbes listed entrepreneur. We are also making some exciting longer range platforms with the support of NATO.

One Way Aerospace is also rebooting the arsenal of democracy by providing long-range (+300km range), precision strike drones mass-produced in Ukraine.

[frostydelusions]

Ukrainian drone unit leader Magyar (pointy stick guy) recently reviewed all the drones he got and said the Mavic Classic drones are useless because of low zoom (3x), he only recommends the Enterprise ones because they have a large zoom (x56) and thermal vision, he also recommends using a tablet for a bigger screen as it is easier to see stuff.

He claims volunteers getting drones with Thermal across the border is hard because they are considered "dual use" and generally only companies with a special license can do it, unfortunately the local companies in Ukraine have increased the drone prices by 50% or more.

[jeffbenton]

"The national equivalent of a millennial's budget"

I felt that.

[Exilea]

I had a discussion with a co-worker when Germany and The Netherlands were sending Gepards to Ukraine about how useful they would be. He was focused on the fact they couldn't take down Russian Jets while I tried to argue that they might be good against drones. But, I wasn't sure if the radar was sensitive enough to pick them up.
Then came the videos of Gepards swatting Shahed Drones out of the sky and it's great to see that an Old system can be so effective against a modern threat.

[grzegorzswist]

Being chased through a field by a flying granade is a stuff of nightmares.

[fratercontenduntocculta]

This is by far my favorite one your videos. I Retired recently from the US Army and got to witness (and operate) the first regularly issued drones for company level operations called the Raven and Puma. It still shocks me that essentially a toy airplane is out there destroying armored vehicles and spotting for Artillery missions.

[peteratlanecove]

Hi Perun, as an electronics engineer with some networking knowledge I was sitting listing in my mind a bunch of counter-measures that could be used to make drones more robust. Then you named every one of them at the end. Great video. Keep it up.

[XTSonic]

Moment of silence for Pvt. Konskriptovic for not being rewarded for his kill streak :(

[allangoodger]

Nothing like relaxing on a Sunday night listing to a fellow Aussie give a very well researched and presented info grab. As usual, well done mate.

[michaelmorley]

My oldest son is a software engineer, and in college he worked on research into "mesh networks, " which is the mechanism by which drone swarms do their information exchange. I found this element of the video particularly interesting because of this.